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  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. ASU vs LSU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Arizona State Sun Devils vs LSU Tigers

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#60ASUArizona St
vs
#51LSULSU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ASUThis seasonLSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LSU 78–78 · win probability LSU 51%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

ASU 1, LSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ASU 29.9%, LSU 33.1%. Defensive: ASU 65.1%, LSU 68.3%
LSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4; LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9
ASUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ASU 17.1%, LSU 15.5%. Forced: ASU 18.4%, LSU 14.0%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ASU 39.5, LSU 40.9. Allowed: ASU 34.3, LSU 37.8
Context
Schedule so far
ASU has played the 13th-hardest schedule, LSU the 49th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
LSU offense vs ASU defense
Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%; LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 38.4% and 34.5% of their shots
Even
ASU offense vs LSU defense
Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ASU 11%, LSU 0%. Transfers in: ASU 6, LSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ASU plays 70.6 a game (93rd fastest), LSU 70.5 (95th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LSU -0.2—
Total—156.4—
Projected score—ASU 78.1 · LSU 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadASU -0.0—
1H total73.1—
1H projected scoreASU 36.6 · LSU 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

LSU has the better starters

Position by position: Arizona St 1, LSU 2, even 2
Arizona StBetterLSU
G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79
LSUSmall
G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95
G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
ASUBig
G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17
G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
LSUSmall
G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87
F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97
Even
G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
Even
F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94
Arizona StBetterLSU
ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2
Even
LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5
ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2
Even
LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players
LSUBig
Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players
ASUBig
Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player
Bench-0.9 · 2 players
LSUSmall
Bench+0.4 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestASU betterLSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arizona St
Guards
J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew
Forwards
P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew
Centers
B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew
LSU
Guards
D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew
Forwards
M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew
Centers
B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ASULSU
Scoring
76.3 #133Points per game81.4 #41
1.08 #178Points per possession1.15 #60
70.6 #93Pace (possessions)70.5 #95
Shooting
51.1 #190Effective FG%52.8 #111
33.4 #2023-point %33.1 #225
38.4 #2013-point attempt rate34.5 #286
39.5 #66Free throw rate40.9 #49
Possessions
17.1 #211Turnover rate15.5 #106
29.9 #206Offensive rebound rate33.1 #87
13.7 #166Assists per game14.7 #106
Defense
78.3 #273Points allowed78.5 #279
1.11 #239Points allowed per possession1.12 #270
52.4 #235Opponent effective FG%50.9 #150
35.0 #249Opponent 3-point %35.4 #271
18.4 #77Turnovers forced14.0 #335
65.1 #337Defensive rebound rate68.3 #239
7.0 #122Steals per game6.0 #240
4.6 #32Blocks per game3.9 #87
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State42–91
  • Wvs Baylor83–79
  • L@ Iowa State65–86
  • Wvs Kansas70–60
  • Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky82–87
  • Lvs Texas A&M91–94
  • L@ Auburn74–88
  • Lvs Oklahoma67–83
  • W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.