South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arizona State Sun Devils: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 26, 2:00 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: South Carolina and Arizona St
SC	This season	ASU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ASU 77–73 · win probability ASU 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SC 0, ASU 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SC plays 68.8 a game (195th fastest), ASU 70.6 (93rd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

SC has played the 54th-hardest schedule, ASU the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%; ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 44.4% and 38.4% of their shots

Even

SC offense vs ASU defense

Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SC 14.4%, ASU 17.1%. Forced: SC 14.6%, ASU 18.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SC 36.7, ASU 39.5. Allowed: SC 34.0, ASU 34.3

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SC 50.3 and allows 51.6; ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SC 27.2%, ASU 29.9%. Defensive: SC 67.9%, ASU 65.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SC 13%, ASU 11%. Transfers in: SC 6, ASU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

ASU offense vs SC defense

Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ASU -4.0	—
Total	—	149.5	—
Projected score	—	SC 72.8 · ASU 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ASU -2.3	—
1H total	69.9	—
1H projected score	SC 33.8 · ASU 36.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SC LLLWL	14-18	44%	1-2	—
ASU WWLWL	20-13	61%	5-2	—

Venue/role: SC neutral site; ASU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UUUUO	16-16	50%	13-19
ASU UUOOU	16-17	48%	17-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
ASU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ NCSU	No recent meeting
Dec 6	vs UTM	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs YSU	No recent meeting

Arizona St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 30	vs MONT	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs OU	W86–70WU
Dec 8	vs MER	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Carolina

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

W W W W L L W L W W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L L W W L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W L L L W L W W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O U O O U O U U U O O U O U O U O O U O O U U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsVT	L 83-86	-2.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 169
Dec 6	vsSTET	W 82-51	-22.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 13	vsCIT	W 71-55	-22.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	@CLEM	L 61-68	+12.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 129
Dec 22	vsSCST	W 95-70	-31.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	vsUALB	W 96-67	-19.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsVAN	L 71-83	+9.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 6	@LSU	W 78-68	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsUGA	L 70-75	+4.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 14	@ARK	L 74-108	+12.5	L −21.5	155.5	O 182
Jan 17	@AUB	L 67-71	+13.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 20	vsOU	W 85-76	+2.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@TA&M	L 69-92	+10.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 28	vsFLA	L 48-95	+13.5	L −33.5	151.5	U 143
Jan 31	vsLSU	L 87-92	+2.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 3	@TEX	L 75-84	+13.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMIZ	L 59-78	+3.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 14	@ALA	L 75-89	+17.5	W +3.5	170.5	U 164
Feb 17	@FLA	L 62-76	+23.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	vsMSST	W 97-89	+1.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 186
Feb 24	vsUK	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UGA	L 68-87	+12.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 155
Mar 3	vsTENN	L 59-78	+10.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 137
Mar 7	@MISS	W 64-61	+7.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsOU	L 74-86	+7.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

L 83-86

−5.5

STET

W 82-51

+8.5

CIT

W 71-55

−6.5

CLEM

L 61-68

+5.5

SCST

W 95-70

−6.5

UALB

W 96-67

+9.5

VAN

L 71-83

−2.5

LSU

W 78-68

+17.5

UGA

L 70-75

−0.5

ARK

L 74-108

−21.5

AUB

L 67-71

+9.5

W 85-76

+11.5

TA&M

L 69-92

−12.5

FLA

L 48-95

−33.5

LSU

L 87-92

−2.5

TEX

L 75-84

+4.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−15.5

ALA

L 75-89

+3.5

FLA

L 62-76

+9.5

MSST

W 97-89

+9.5

L 63-72

−1.5

UGA

L 68-87

−6.5

TENN

L 59-78

−8.5

MISS

W 64-61

+10.5

L 74-86

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

L 83-86

+19.5

STET

W 82-51

−9.5

CIT

W 71-55

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-68

−13.5

SCST

W 95-70

+15.5

UALB

W 96-67

+14.5

VAN

L 71-83

−1.5

LSU

W 78-68

+0.5

UGA

L 70-75

−18.5

ARK

L 74-108

+26.5

AUB

L 67-71

−14.5

W 85-76

+10.5

TA&M

L 69-92

+5.5

FLA

L 48-95

−8.5

LSU

L 87-92

+31.5

TEX

L 75-84

+9.5

MIZ

L 59-78

−10.5

ALA

L 75-89

−6.5

FLA

L 62-76

−18.5

MSST

W 97-89

+34.5

L 63-72

−16.5

UGA

L 68-87

−3.5

TENN

L 59-78

−4.5

MISS

W 64-61

−22.5

L 74-86

+10.5

over 16under 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arizona St

33 games played

Straight up

17-16

52% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1652%

W W L W W W W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L W L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

U U U U O O O O U U O O O O O O O O U O U U U U U U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 24	vsTEX	W 87-86	+6.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsWSU	W 100-94	-4.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 194
Nov 26	vsUSC	L 75-88	+4.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsOU	W 86-70	+5.5	W +21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 9	vsNAU	W 73-48	-16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsSCU	W 82-79	+1.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	@UCLA	L 77-90	+9.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 21	vsORST	L 75-78	-12.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 153
Jan 3	vsCOLO	L 89-95	-1.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 184
Jan 7	@BYU	L 76-104	+17.5	L −10.5	168.5	O 180
Jan 10	vsKSU	W 87-84	-1.5	W +1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	@ARIZ	L 82-89	+21.5	W +14.5	167.5	O 171
Jan 18	@HOU	L 73-103	+18.5	L −11.5	142.5	O 176
Jan 21	vsWVU	L 63-75	-1.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 138
Jan 24	vsCIN	W 82-68	+3.5	W +17.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 27	@UCF	L 76-79	+6.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsARIZ	L 74-87	+14.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 161
Feb 4	@UTAH	W 71-63	+1.5	W +9.5	161.5	U 134
Feb 7	@COLO	L 70-78	+3.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 148
Feb 10	vsOKST	W 85-76	-3.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 161
Feb 17	vsTTU	W 72-67	+7.5	W +12.5	156.5	U 139
Feb 21	@BAY	L 68-73	+8.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 141
Feb 24	@TCU	L 78-90	+6.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 168
Feb 28	vsUTAH	W 73-60	-6.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 133
Mar 3	vsKU	W 70-60	+5.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 130
Mar 7	@ISU	L 65-86	+16.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 151
Mar 10	vsBAY	W 83-79	+5.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 162
Mar 11	vsISU	L 42-91	+13.5	L −35.5	148.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

TEX

W 87-86

+7.5

WSU

W 100-94

+1.5

USC

L 75-88

−8.5

W 86-70

+21.5

NAU

W 73-48

+8.5

SCU

W 82-79

+4.5

UCLA

L 77-90

−3.5

ORST

L 75-78

−15.5

COLO

L 89-95

−7.5

BYU

L 76-104

−10.5

KSU

W 87-84

+1.5

ARIZ

L 82-89

+14.5

HOU

L 73-103

−11.5

WVU

L 63-75

−13.5

CIN

W 82-68

+17.5

UCF

L 76-79

+3.5

ARIZ

L 74-87

+1.5

UTAH

W 71-63

+9.5

COLO

L 70-78

−4.5

OKST

W 85-76

+5.5

TTU

W 72-67

+12.5

BAY

L 68-73

+3.5

TCU

L 78-90

−5.5

UTAH

W 73-60

+6.5

W 70-60

+15.5

ISU

L 65-86

−4.5

BAY

W 83-79

+9.5

ISU

L 42-91

−35.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

TEX

W 87-86

+19.5

WSU

W 100-94

+36.5

USC

L 75-88

+1.5

W 86-70

−1.5

NAU

W 73-48

−33.5

SCU

W 82-79

+6.5

UCLA

L 77-90

+24.5

ORST

L 75-78

+5.5

COLO

L 89-95

+27.5

BYU

L 76-104

+11.5

KSU

W 87-84

+1.5

ARIZ

L 82-89

+3.5

HOU

L 73-103

+33.5

WVU

L 63-75

−7.5

CIN

W 82-68

+3.5

UCF

L 76-79

−6.5

ARIZ

L 74-87

−2.5

UTAH

W 71-63

−27.5

COLO

L 70-78

−10.5

OKST

W 85-76

−2.5

TTU

W 72-67

−17.5

BAY

L 68-73

−16.5

TCU

L 78-90

+18.5

UTAH

W 73-60

−17.5

W 70-60

−21.5

ISU

L 65-86

+2.5

BAY

W 83-79

+9.5

ISU

L 42-91

−15.5

over 16under 17avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arizona St has the better starters

Position by position: South Carolina 1, Arizona St 2, even 2

South CarolinaBetterArizona St

G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

Even

G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79

G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81

SCSmall

G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55

F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46

Even

G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58

F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

ASUBig

F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97

F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36

ASUBig

C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84

South CarolinaBetterArizona St

SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8

Even

ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2

SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6

Even

ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2

Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players

SCSmall

Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players

ASUBig

Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSC betterASU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

South Carolina

Guards

S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew

Forwards

J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew

Arizona St

Guards

J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew

Forwards

P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew

Centers

B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SC74.9 #165

ASU76.3 #133

Points per possession

SC1.09 #161

ASU1.08 #178

Pace (possessions)

SC68.8 #195

ASU70.6 #93

Shooting

Effective FG%

SC50.3 #226

ASU51.1 #190

3-point %

SC31.1 #317

ASU33.4 #202

3-point attempt rate

SC44.4 #80

ASU38.4 #201

Free throw rate

SC36.7 #137

ASU39.5 #66

Possessions

Turnover rate

SC14.4 #39

ASU17.1 #211

Offensive rebound rate

SC27.2 #289

ASU29.9 #206

Assists per game

SC13.3 #190

ASU13.7 #166

Defense

Points allowed

SC76.5 #228

ASU78.3 #273

Points allowed per possession

SC1.11 #252

ASU1.11 #239

Opponent effective FG%

SC51.6 #188

ASU52.4 #235

Opponent 3-point %

SC31.8 #56

ASU35.0 #249

Turnovers forced

SC14.6 #314

ASU18.4 #77

Defensive rebound rate

SC67.9 #263

ASU65.1 #337

Steals per game

SC5.5 #295

ASU7.0 #122

Blocks per game

SC2.4 #317

ASU4.6 #32

SC		ASU
Scoring
74.9 #165	Points per game	76.3 #133
1.09 #161	Points per possession	1.08 #178
68.8 #195	Pace (possessions)	70.6 #93
Shooting
50.3 #226	Effective FG%	51.1 #190
31.1 #317	3-point %	33.4 #202
44.4 #80	3-point attempt rate	38.4 #201
36.7 #137	Free throw rate	39.5 #66
Possessions
14.4 #39	Turnover rate	17.1 #211
27.2 #289	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #206
13.3 #190	Assists per game	13.7 #166
Defense
76.5 #228	Points allowed	78.3 #273
1.11 #252	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #239
51.6 #188	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #235
31.8 #56	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #249
14.6 #314	Turnovers forced	18.4 #77
67.9 #263	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #337
5.5 #295	Steals per game	7.0 #122
2.4 #317	Blocks per game	4.6 #32

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Oklahoma74–86
W@ Ole Miss64–61
Lvs Tennessee59–78
L@ Georgia68–87
Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State42–91
Wvs Baylor83–79
L@ Iowa State65–86
Wvs Kansas70–60
Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Arizona State Sun Devils

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

South Carolina

Arizona St

Arizona St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

South Carolina

Arizona St