1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 30
  3. MONT @ ASU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 30

Montana Grizzlies at Arizona State Sun Devils

Desert Financial Arena · at Arizona St
#273MONTMontana
@
#60ASUArizona St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MONTThis seasonASU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ASU 87–65 · win probability ASU 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ASU has more of the edges

MONT 3, ASU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ASUBig
ASU offense vs MONT defense
Offense 55th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MONT has played the 250th-hardest schedule, ASU the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ASUBig
MONT offense vs ASU defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 60th, on the model’s ratings
ASUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MONT 19.5%, ASU 17.1%. Forced: MONT 14.3%, ASU 18.4%
MONTBig
Three-pointers
MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%; ASU hits 33.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 41.8% and 38.4% of their shots
MONTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5; ASU 51.1 and allows 52.4
ASUSmall
Home court
ASU at home. This season: ASU 0-0 at home, MONT 0-0 away
MONTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MONT 39%, ASU 11%. Transfers in: MONT 0, ASU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MONT 20.7%, ASU 29.9%. Defensive: MONT 70.4%, ASU 65.1%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MONT 36.8, ASU 39.5. Allowed: MONT 32.6, ASU 34.3
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MONT plays 71.1 a game (72nd fastest), ASU 70.6 (93rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ASU -22.2—
Total—151.6—
Projected score—MONT 64.7 · ASU 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadASU -13.1—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreMONT 28.9 · ASU 42—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arizona St has the better starters

Position by position: Montana 0, Arizona St 2, even 3
MontanaBetterArizona St
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
ASUBig
G J. Foxwell TR15.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 6.4 ast Score 79
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Shaw TR7.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G E. Innocenti TR6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
ASUBig
F P. Murauskas TR18.4 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 97
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
C B. Defty TR15.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
MontanaBetterArizona St
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
ASUBig
ASU defense60th of 366 · +1.2
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
ASUBig
ASU offense55th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
ASUBig
Backcourt+1.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
ASUBig
Frontcourt+9.4 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMONT betterASU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
Arizona St
Guards
J. Foxwell36 min · TRD. Shaw28 min · TRE. Innocenti24 min · TRB. Ford22 minV. WallaceNewJ. CroyNew
Forwards
P. Murauskas33 min · TRA. NyuonNewM. VaughnsNew
Centers
B. Defty29 min · TRN. Garcia7 min · TRF. MalesevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MONTASU
Scoring
75.7 #148Points per game76.3 #133
1.06 #216Points per possession1.08 #178
71.1 #72Pace (possessions)70.6 #93
Shooting
55.8 #23Effective FG%51.1 #190
36.6 #383-point %33.4 #202
41.8 #1383-point attempt rate38.4 #201
36.8 #135Free throw rate39.5 #66
Possessions
19.5 #339Turnover rate17.1 #211
20.7 #363Offensive rebound rate29.9 #206
14.3 #125Assists per game13.7 #166
Defense
77.6 #254Points allowed78.3 #273
1.09 #204Points allowed per possession1.11 #239
50.5 #129Opponent effective FG%52.4 #235
32.3 #74Opponent 3-point %35.0 #249
14.3 #326Turnovers forced18.4 #77
70.4 #143Defensive rebound rate65.1 #337
5.4 #306Steals per game7.0 #122
2.4 #313Blocks per game4.6 #32
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.

Arizona St

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa State42–91
  • Wvs Baylor83–79
  • L@ Iowa State65–86
  • Wvs Kansas70–60
  • Wvs Utah73–60

A week or more of rest.