1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 26
  3. BC vs UCF
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 26

Boston College Eagles vs UCF Knights

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#95BCBoston College
vs
#39UCFUCF
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BCThis seasonUCF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCF 83–75 · win probability UCF 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCF has more of the edges

BC 0, UCF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BC 28.3%, UCF 35.0%. Defensive: BC 71.4%, UCF 71.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BC plays 67.5 a game (257th fastest), UCF 71.2 (63rd). Faster games mean more points
UCFSmall
Three-pointers
BC hits 29.4% and allows 31.9%; UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 42.4% and 34.8% of their shots
UCFSmall
UCF offense vs BC defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 83rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
BC has played the 79th-hardest schedule, UCF the 41st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BC 1%, UCF 20%. Transfers in: BC 11, UCF 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BC 47.0 and allows 48.9; UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BC 32.4, UCF 30.5. Allowed: BC 34.6, UCF 34.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BC 15.4%, UCF 16.0%. Forced: BC 14.8%, UCF 15.7%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
BC offense vs UCF defense
Offense 96th of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCF -8.2—
Total—157.1—
Projected score—BC 74.5 · UCF 82.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCF -4.8—
1H total73.4—
1H projected scoreBC 34.3 · UCF 39.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Boston College 1, UCF 1, even 3
Boston CollegeBetterUCF
G E. Shelton TR15.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
Even
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
G A. Zeigler TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 3.3 ast Score 60
UCFBig
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
G M. Williams TR21.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
Even
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
F B. Benjamin TR14.2 pts · 10.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
Even
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
F A. Bukumirovic TR13.7 pts · 7.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
BCSmall
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
Boston CollegeBetterUCF
BC offense96th of 366 · -0.7
Even
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
BC defense83rd of 366 · +0.1
UCFSmall
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
Backcourt+4.7 · 3 players
UCFSmall
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Bench-4.5 · 5 players
UCFBig
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBC betterUCF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Boston College
Guards
E. Shelton37 min · TRA. Zeigler33 min · TRM. Williams32 min · TRJ. Frankel21 min · TRJ. O'Toole3 min · TRJ. Furphy3 min · TR
Forwards
B. Benjamin31 min · TRA. Bukumirovic30 min · TRC. Duggan28 min · TRL. Hunger19 min · TRA. Tounkara18 min · TRJ. BaileyNew
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BCUCF
Scoring
67.4 #326Points per game80.7 #53
1.00 #323Points per possession1.13 #77
67.5 #257Pace (possessions)71.2 #63
Shooting
47.0 #338Effective FG%52.6 #123
29.4 #3483-point %36.2 #49
42.4 #1303-point attempt rate34.8 #281
32.4 #251Free throw rate30.5 #295
Possessions
15.4 #102Turnover rate16.0 #137
28.3 #254Offensive rebound rate35.0 #47
11.3 #323Assists per game15.7 #56
Defense
70.7 #70Points allowed78.3 #274
1.04 #81Points allowed per possession1.10 #219
48.9 #62Opponent effective FG%52.1 #221
31.9 #59Opponent 3-point %33.9 #176
14.8 #303Turnovers forced15.7 #241
71.4 #87Defensive rebound rate71.2 #96
4.8 #341Steals per game5.6 #285
4.1 #62Blocks per game3.0 #225
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boston College

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Notre Dame77–69
  • L@ Virginia Tech63–72
  • L@ Miami54–76
  • Wvs Wake Forest68–67
  • L@ SMU70–94

A week or more of rest.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.