Oklahoma Sooners vs Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 26, 12:00 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Oklahoma and Purdue
OU	This season	PUR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PUR 77–76 · win probability PUR 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 153.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

OU 0, PUR 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PURBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OU 32.8%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: OU 67.1%, PUR 72.9%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: OU plays 69.4 a game (154th fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

OU has played the 32nd-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OU 54.9 and allows 51.0; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4

Even

Three-pointers

OU hits 36.5% and allows 34.1%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 43.6% and 40.2% of their shots

Even

PUR offense vs OU defense

Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 51st, on the model’s ratings

Even

OU offense vs PUR defense

Offense 28th of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OU 35.5, PUR 28.6. Allowed: OU 34.9, PUR 25.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OU 14.3%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: OU 15.5%, PUR 15.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OU 43%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: OU 6, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PUR -1.2	—
Total	—	153.5	—
Projected score	—	OU 76.1 · PUR 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -0.6	—
1H total	71.7	—
1H projected score	OU 35.6 · PUR 36.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OU WWLWL	17-20	46%	5-5	—
PUR WWWLL	17-22	44%	6-5	—

Venue/role: OU neutral site; PUR neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUOUO	18-19	49%	21-16
PUR OOOOU	20-19	51%	30-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
PUR	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs SYR	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs ASU	L70–86LU
Dec 7	vs ALST	No recent meeting

Purdue

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs IOWA	W78–57WU
Dec 5	@ ISU	L58–81LU
Dec 8	@ WIS	L93–97LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oklahoma

37 games played

Straight up

21-16

57% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1657%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O O U U O U O O U U O O O O U O U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsMISS	W 86-70	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	@MSST	L 53-72	+1.5	L −17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@TA&M	L 76-83	+4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 159
Jan 13	vsFLA	L 79-96	+7.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	vsALA	L 81-83	+5.5	W +3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 20	@SC	L 76-85	-2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@MIZ	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 175
Jan 27	vsARK	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	167.5	U 162
Jan 31	vsTEX	L 69-79	+1.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 4	@UK	L 78-94	+8.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	@VAN	W 92-91	+11.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 14	vsUGA	W 94-78	-1.5	W +14.5	164.5	O 172
Feb 18	@TENN	L 66-89	+11.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	vsTA&M	L 71-75	+1.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 146
Feb 24	vsAUB	W 91-79	+3.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	@LSU	W 83-67	+1.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	vsMIZ	W 80-64	+1.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 7	@TEX	W 88-85	+6.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsSC	W 86-74	-7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsTA&M	W 83-63	+2.5	W +22.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 13	vsARK	L 79-82	+6.5	W +3.5	166.5	U 161
Apr 1	vsCOLO	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 176
Apr 4	vsBAY	W 82-69	+1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 151
Apr 5	vsWVU	L 82-89	-3.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−17.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−2.5

FLA

L 79-96

−9.5

ALA

L 81-83

+3.5

L 76-85

−11.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+3.5

ARK

L 79-83

−0.5

TEX

L 69-79

−8.5

L 78-94

−7.5

VAN

W 92-91

+12.5

UGA

W 94-78

+14.5

TENN

L 66-89

−11.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−2.5

AUB

W 91-79

+15.5

LSU

W 83-67

+17.5

MIZ

W 80-64

+17.5

TEX

W 88-85

+9.5

W 86-74

+4.5

TA&M

W 83-63

+22.5

ARK

L 79-82

+3.5

COLO

W 90-86

−5.5

BAY

W 82-69

+14.5

WVU

L 82-89

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−33.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−6.5

FLA

L 79-96

+17.5

ALA

L 81-83

−13.5

L 76-85

+10.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+23.5

ARK

L 79-83

−5.5

TEX

L 69-79

−7.5

L 78-94

+19.5

VAN

W 92-91

+23.5

UGA

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

L 66-89

+5.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−19.5

AUB

W 91-79

+12.5

LSU

W 83-67

−5.5

MIZ

W 80-64

−9.5

TEX

W 88-85

+18.5

W 86-74

+10.5

TA&M

W 83-63

−16.5

ARK

L 79-82

−5.5

COLO

W 90-86

+13.5

BAY

W 82-69

−8.5

WVU

L 82-89

+29.5

over 18under 19avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

39 games played

Straight up

30-9

77% wins

Against the spread

17-22

44% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-19

51% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-977%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L L L W W W W L W L L W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2244%

L L W L L W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L W L W W L W L L L L L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1951%

U O U O U U O U U U U U O O U O O U U O U O U O U O O O O U O O U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 16	vsAKR	W 97-79	-18.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 20	vsMEM	W 80-71	-14.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsTTU	W 86-56	-3.5	W +26.5	153.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsEIU	W 109-62	-40.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 2	@RUTG	W 81-65	-13.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 6	vsISU	L 58-81	-4.5	L −27.5	154.5	U 139
Dec 10	vsMINN	W 85-57	-19.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsMARQ	W 79-59	-16.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 20	vsAUB	W 88-60	-7.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsKENT	W 101-60	-24.5	W +16.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 3	@WIS	W 89-73	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 7	vsWASH	W 81-73	-16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 10	vsPSU	W 93-85	-22.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsIOWA	W 79-72	-10.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 151
Jan 17	@USC	W 69-64	-9.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 133
Jan 20	@UCLA	L 67-69	-5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsILL	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 27	@IU	L 67-72	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 139
Feb 1	@MD	W 93-63	-15.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsORE	W 68-64	-19.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 10	@NEB	W 80-77	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	@IOWA	W 78-57	-2.5	W +18.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 17	vsMICH	L 80-91	+2.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 171
Feb 20	vsIU	W 93-64	-11.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 26	vsMSU	L 74-76	-5.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 150
Mar 1	@OSU	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Mar 4	@NU	W 70-66	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 136
Mar 7	vsWIS	L 93-97	-9.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 190
Mar 12	vsNU	W 81-68	-13.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsNEB	W 74-58	-4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 14	vsUCLA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 15	vsMICH	W 80-72	+4.5	W +12.5	149.5	O 152
Mar 20	vsQUC	W 104-71	-25.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 175
Mar 22	vsMIA	W 79-69	-8.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 148
Mar 26	vsTEX	W 79-77	-8.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 156
Mar 28	vsARIZ	L 64-79	+5.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

AKR

W 97-79

−0.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

+26.5

EIU

W 109-62

+6.5

RUTG

W 81-65

+2.5

ISU

L 58-81

−27.5

MINN

W 85-57

+8.5

MARQ

W 79-59

+3.5

AUB

W 88-60

+20.5

KENT

W 101-60

+16.5

WIS

W 89-73

+10.5

WASH

W 81-73

−8.5

PSU

W 93-85

−14.5

IOWA

W 79-72

−3.5

USC

W 69-64

−4.5

UCLA

L 67-69

−7.5

ILL

L 82-88

−11.5

L 67-72

−9.5

W 93-63

+14.5

ORE

W 68-64

−15.5

NEB

W 80-77

+5.5

IOWA

W 78-57

+18.5

MICH

L 80-91

−8.5

W 93-64

+17.5

MSU

L 74-76

−7.5

OSU

L 74-82

−14.5

W 70-66

−8.5

WIS

L 93-97

−13.5

W 81-68

−0.5

NEB

W 74-58

+11.5

UCLA

W 73-66

−0.5

MICH

W 80-72

+12.5

QUC

W 104-71

+7.5

MIA

W 79-69

+1.5

TEX

W 79-77

−6.5

ARIZ

L 64-79

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 22avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

AKR

W 97-79

+12.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

−11.5

EIU

W 109-62

+29.5

RUTG

W 81-65

−0.5

ISU

L 58-81

−15.5

MINN

W 85-57

−1.5

MARQ

W 79-59

−16.5

AUB

W 88-60

−4.5

KENT

W 101-60

+5.5

WIS

W 89-73

+8.5

WASH

W 81-73

−0.5

PSU

W 93-85

+25.5

IOWA

W 79-72

+5.5

USC

W 69-64

−22.5

UCLA

L 67-69

−11.5

ILL

L 82-88

+17.5

L 67-72

−11.5

W 93-63

+7.5

ORE

W 68-64

−12.5

NEB

W 80-77

+10.5

IOWA

W 78-57

−7.5

MICH

L 80-91

+14.5

W 93-64

+6.5

MSU

L 74-76

+6.5

OSU

L 74-82

+6.5

W 70-66

−9.5

WIS

L 93-97

+35.5

W 81-68

+9.5

NEB

W 74-58

−13.5

UCLA

W 73-66

−4.5

MICH

W 80-72

+2.5

QUC

W 104-71

+15.5

MIA

W 79-69

+1.5

TEX

W 79-77

+9.5

ARIZ

L 64-79

−9.5

over 20under 19avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma has the better starters

Position by position: Oklahoma 2, Purdue 1, even 2

OklahomaBetterPurdue

G B. Edwards TR12.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 93

Even

G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82

G X. Brown15.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 92

OUSmall

G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

G T. Hendricks TR11.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 60

PURSmall

G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

F D. Brennan TR12.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 95

OUSmall

G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

F D. Reid11.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 84

Even

C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88

OklahomaBetterPurdue

OU offense28th of 366 · +6.6

Even

PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0

OU defense51st of 366 · +1.9

Even

PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

OUBig

Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt+6.9 · 2 players

OUBig

Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

OUSmall

Bench-0.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestOU betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Oklahoma

Guards

B. Edwards33 min · TRX. Brown32 minT. Hendricks31 min · TRP. Isaacs22 min · TRD. Forsythe17 minB. MoserNew

Forwards

D. Brennan31 min · TRD. Reid28 minK. Rooths16 min · TRK. Rogers8 minF. KeeffeNewG. MayfieldNew

Centers

Y. Yaak15 min · TR

Purdue

Guards

C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min

Forwards

S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew

Centers

D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OU82.9 #29

PUR81.6 #35

Points per possession

OU1.19 #23

PUR1.25 #2

Pace (possessions)

OU69.4 #154

PUR65.4 #333

Shooting

Effective FG%

OU54.9 #40

PUR57.6 #10

3-point %

OU36.5 #41

PUR38.3 #11

3-point attempt rate

OU43.6 #97

PUR40.2 #164

Free throw rate

OU35.5 #161

PUR28.6 #336

Possessions

Turnover rate

OU14.3 #33

PUR13.7 #16

Offensive rebound rate

OU32.8 #92

PUR36.4 #19

Assists per game

OU14.5 #116

PUR19.6 #2

Defense

Points allowed

OU77.4 #248

PUR70.5 #65

Points allowed per possession

OU1.12 #271

PUR1.08 #162

Opponent effective FG%

OU51.0 #162

PUR52.4 #232

Opponent 3-point %

OU34.1 #189

PUR34.1 #192

Turnovers forced

OU15.5 #247

PUR15.3 #263

Defensive rebound rate

OU67.1 #296

PUR72.9 #39

Steals per game

OU6.3 #193

PUR5.5 #297

Blocks per game

OU3.9 #89

PUR2.8 #257

OU		PUR
Scoring
82.9 #29	Points per game	81.6 #35
1.19 #23	Points per possession	1.25 #2
69.4 #154	Pace (possessions)	65.4 #333
Shooting
54.9 #40	Effective FG%	57.6 #10
36.5 #41	3-point %	38.3 #11
43.6 #97	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #164
35.5 #161	Free throw rate	28.6 #336
Possessions
14.3 #33	Turnover rate	13.7 #16
32.8 #92	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #19
14.5 #116	Assists per game	19.6 #2
Defense
77.4 #248	Points allowed	70.5 #65
1.12 #271	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #162
51.0 #162	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #232
34.1 #189	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #192
15.5 #247	Turnovers forced	15.3 #263
67.1 #296	Defensive rebound rate	72.9 #39
6.3 #193	Steals per game	5.5 #297
3.9 #89	Blocks per game	2.8 #257

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oklahoma

21-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia82–89
Wvs Baylor82–69
Wvs Colorado90–86
Lvs Arkansas79–82
Wvs Texas A&M83–63

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arizona64–79
Wvs Texas79–77
Wvs Miami79–69
Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Purdue Boilermakers

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oklahoma

Purdue

Oklahoma has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Oklahoma

Purdue