Syracuse Orange at Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 9:00 PM ETLloyd Noble Center · at Oklahoma

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Syracuse and Oklahoma
SYR	This season	OU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OU 82–75 · win probability OU 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

SYR 0, OU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

OUSmall

Three-pointers

SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%; OU hits 36.5% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 37.1% and 43.6% of their shots

OUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SYR 29.2%, OU 32.8%. Defensive: SYR 66.4%, OU 67.1%

OUSmall

Home court

OU at home. This season: OU 0-0 at home, SYR 0-0 away

OUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SYR 19%, OU 43%. Transfers in: SYR 6, OU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

OU offense vs SYR defense

Offense 28th of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

SYR has played the 67th-hardest schedule, OU the 32nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SYR 35.1, OU 35.5. Allowed: SYR 32.6, OU 34.9

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3; OU 54.9 and allows 51.0

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SYR 15.9%, OU 14.3%. Forced: SYR 17.4%, OU 15.5%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SYR plays 69.1 a game (173rd fastest), OU 69.4 (154th). Faster games mean more points

Even

SYR offense vs OU defense

Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 51st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	OU -7.6	—
Total	—	156.6	—
Projected score	—	SYR 74.5 · OU 82.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -4.4	—
1H total	73.2	—
1H projected score	SYR 34.4 · OU 38.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LLLLL	14-18	44%	4-5	—
OU WWLWL	17-20	46%	7-9	—

Venue/role: SYR away; OU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UOUUO	17-15	53%	15-17
OU UUOUO	18-19	49%	21-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
OU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs COLG	W74–72LU
Dec 12	vs MERC	W76–62LO

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs ASU	L70–86LU
Dec 7	vs ALST	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs OKST	W85–76WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Syracuse

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L W L L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U U O O U U O O O O U O O O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsTENN	W 62-60	+7.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 11	vsJOES	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 13	vsHOF	L 69-70	-9.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 17	vsMERC	W 76-62	-24.5	L −10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsNE	W 91-83	-14.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	vsSTO	W 77-48	-22.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsCLEM	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 6	@GT	W 82-72	-2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@PITT	W 83-72	+1.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 13	vsFSU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	@BC	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsVT	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	vsMIA	L 76-85	+1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 27	@NCSU	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsND	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 2	@UNC	L 77-87	+11.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	@UVA	L 59-72	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsCAL	W 107-100	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	vsSMU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 16	@DUKE	L 64-101	+20.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsUNC	L 64-77	-2.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WAKE	L 83-88	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@LOU	L 62-77	+14.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	vsPITT	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSMU	L 69-86	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

TENN

W 62-60

+9.5

JOES

W 71-63

−3.5

HOF

L 69-70

−10.5

MERC

W 76-62

−10.5

W 91-83

−6.5

STO

W 77-48

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−1.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+3.5

L 73-81

−13.5

L 74-76

−5.5

MIA

L 76-85

−7.5

NCSU

L 68-88

−9.5

W 86-72

+7.5

UNC

L 77-87

+1.5

UVA

L 59-72

+0.5

CAL

W 107-100

+0.5

SMU

W 79-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 64-101

−16.5

UNC

L 64-77

−15.5

WAKE

L 83-88

−1.5

LOU

L 62-77

−0.5

PITT

L 69-71

−7.5

SMU

L 69-86

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

TENN

W 62-60

−25.5

JOES

W 71-63

−12.5

HOF

L 69-70

−0.5

MERC

W 76-62

+6.5

W 91-83

+33.5

STO

W 77-48

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−15.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+19.5

L 73-81

+12.5

L 74-76

−2.5

MIA

L 76-85

+11.5

NCSU

L 68-88

+4.5

W 86-72

+10.5

UNC

L 77-87

+5.5

UVA

L 59-72

−16.5

CAL

W 107-100

+58.5

SMU

W 79-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 64-101

+20.5

UNC

L 64-77

−13.5

WAKE

L 83-88

+18.5

LOU

L 62-77

−20.5

PITT

L 69-71

−1.5

SMU

L 69-86

+0.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

37 games played

Straight up

21-16

57% wins

Against the spread

17-20

46% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-19

49% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1657%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-2046%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L W L L L W L W L L L W W L L W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1949%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O O U U O U O O U U O O O O U O U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsMISS	W 86-70	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 7	@MSST	L 53-72	+1.5	L −17.5	158.5	U 125
Jan 10	@TA&M	L 76-83	+4.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 159
Jan 13	vsFLA	L 79-96	+7.5	L −9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	vsALA	L 81-83	+5.5	W +3.5	177.5	U 164
Jan 20	@SC	L 76-85	-2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 161
Jan 24	@MIZ	L 87-88	+4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 175
Jan 27	vsARK	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	167.5	U 162
Jan 31	vsTEX	L 69-79	+1.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 4	@UK	L 78-94	+8.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	@VAN	W 92-91	+11.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 14	vsUGA	W 94-78	-1.5	W +14.5	164.5	O 172
Feb 18	@TENN	L 66-89	+11.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 155
Feb 21	vsTA&M	L 71-75	+1.5	L −2.5	165.5	U 146
Feb 24	vsAUB	W 91-79	+3.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 170
Feb 28	@LSU	W 83-67	+1.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	vsMIZ	W 80-64	+1.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 144
Mar 7	@TEX	W 88-85	+6.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsSC	W 86-74	-7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsTA&M	W 83-63	+2.5	W +22.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 13	vsARK	L 79-82	+6.5	W +3.5	166.5	U 161
Apr 1	vsCOLO	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 176
Apr 4	vsBAY	W 82-69	+1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 151
Apr 5	vsWVU	L 82-89	-3.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−17.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−2.5

FLA

L 79-96

−9.5

ALA

L 81-83

+3.5

L 76-85

−11.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+3.5

ARK

L 79-83

−0.5

TEX

L 69-79

−8.5

L 78-94

−7.5

VAN

W 92-91

+12.5

UGA

W 94-78

+14.5

TENN

L 66-89

−11.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−2.5

AUB

W 91-79

+15.5

LSU

W 83-67

+17.5

MIZ

W 80-64

+17.5

TEX

W 88-85

+9.5

W 86-74

+4.5

TA&M

W 83-63

+22.5

ARK

L 79-82

+3.5

COLO

W 90-86

−5.5

BAY

W 82-69

+14.5

WVU

L 82-89

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 20avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

MSST

L 53-72

−33.5

TA&M

L 76-83

−6.5

FLA

L 79-96

+17.5

ALA

L 81-83

−13.5

L 76-85

+10.5

MIZ

L 87-88

+23.5

ARK

L 79-83

−5.5

TEX

L 69-79

−7.5

L 78-94

+19.5

VAN

W 92-91

+23.5

UGA

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

L 66-89

+5.5

TA&M

L 71-75

−19.5

AUB

W 91-79

+12.5

LSU

W 83-67

−5.5

MIZ

W 80-64

−9.5

TEX

W 88-85

+18.5

W 86-74

+10.5

TA&M

W 83-63

−16.5

ARK

L 79-82

−5.5

COLO

W 90-86

+13.5

BAY

W 82-69

−8.5

WVU

L 82-89

+29.5

over 18under 19avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma has the better starters

Position by position: Syracuse 0, Oklahoma 1, even 4

SyracuseBetterOklahoma

G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 94

Even

G B. Edwards TR12.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 4.9 ast Score 93

G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast Score 82

Even

G X. Brown15.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 92

G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 66

Even

G T. Hendricks TR11.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 60

F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 73

OUSmall

F D. Brennan TR12.4 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 95

C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 75

Even

F D. Reid11.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 84

SyracuseBetterOklahoma

SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7

Even

OU defense51st of 366 · +1.9

SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9

Even

OU offense28th of 366 · +6.6

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

OUBig

Frontcourt+6.9 · 2 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Even

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSYR betterOU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Syracuse

Guards

G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min

Forwards

F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew

Centers

L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew

Oklahoma

Guards

B. Edwards33 min · TRX. Brown32 minT. Hendricks31 min · TRP. Isaacs22 min · TRD. Forsythe17 minB. MoserNew

Forwards

D. Brennan31 min · TRD. Reid28 minK. Rooths16 min · TRK. Rogers8 minF. KeeffeNewG. MayfieldNew

Centers

Y. Yaak15 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SYR75.0 #163

OU82.9 #29

Points per possession

SYR1.08 #174

OU1.19 #23

Pace (possessions)

SYR69.1 #173

OU69.4 #154

Shooting

Effective FG%

SYR52.6 #122

OU54.9 #40

3-point %

SYR32.9 #239

OU36.5 #41

3-point attempt rate

SYR37.1 #226

OU43.6 #97

Free throw rate

SYR35.1 #171

OU35.5 #161

Possessions

Turnover rate

SYR15.9 #134

OU14.3 #33

Offensive rebound rate

SYR29.2 #228

OU32.8 #92

Assists per game

SYR12.8 #225

OU14.5 #116

Defense

Points allowed

SYR74.3 #163

OU77.4 #248

Points allowed per possession

SYR1.07 #144

OU1.12 #271

Opponent effective FG%

SYR50.3 #116

OU51.0 #162

Opponent 3-point %

SYR34.1 #186

OU34.1 #189

Turnovers forced

SYR17.4 #125

OU15.5 #247

Defensive rebound rate

SYR66.4 #310

OU67.1 #296

Steals per game

SYR6.2 #214

OU6.3 #193

Blocks per game

SYR5.9 #4

OU3.9 #89

SYR		OU
Scoring
75.0 #163	Points per game	82.9 #29
1.08 #174	Points per possession	1.19 #23
69.1 #173	Pace (possessions)	69.4 #154
Shooting
52.6 #122	Effective FG%	54.9 #40
32.9 #239	3-point %	36.5 #41
37.1 #226	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #97
35.1 #171	Free throw rate	35.5 #161
Possessions
15.9 #134	Turnover rate	14.3 #33
29.2 #228	Offensive rebound rate	32.8 #92
12.8 #225	Assists per game	14.5 #116
Defense
74.3 #163	Points allowed	77.4 #248
1.07 #144	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #271
50.3 #116	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #162
34.1 #186	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #189
17.4 #125	Turnovers forced	15.5 #247
66.4 #310	Defensive rebound rate	67.1 #296
6.2 #214	Steals per game	6.3 #193
5.9 #4	Blocks per game	3.9 #89

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Syracuse

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SMU69–86
Lvs Pitt69–71
L@ Louisville62–77
L@ Wake Forest83–88
Lvs North Carolina64–77

A week or more of rest.

Oklahoma

21-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Virginia82–89
Wvs Baylor82–69
Wvs Colorado90–86
Lvs Arkansas79–82
Wvs Texas A&M83–63

A week or more of rest.

Syracuse Orange at Oklahoma Sooners

What could decide it: OU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Syracuse

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Syracuse

Oklahoma