Wake Forest Demon Deacons at LSU Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 9:00 PM ETPete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU

#51LSULSU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wake Forest and LSU
WAKE	This season	LSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LSU 82–74 · win probability LSU 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

WAKE 2, LSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WAKEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WAKE 15.5%, LSU 15.5%. Forced: WAKE 17.7%, LSU 14.0%

WAKESmall

Three-pointers

WAKE hits 34.1% and allows 32.9%; LSU hits 33.1% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 43.6% and 34.5% of their shots

LSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WAKE 30.1%, LSU 33.1%. Defensive: WAKE 67.0%, LSU 68.3%

LSUSmall

LSU offense vs WAKE defense

Offense 37th of 366 against a defense 96th, on the model’s ratings

LSUSmall

Home court

LSU at home. This season: LSU 0-0 at home, WAKE 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WAKE 35.2, LSU 40.9. Allowed: WAKE 35.7, LSU 37.8

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WAKE 52.7 and allows 51.8; LSU 52.8 and allows 50.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WAKE 9%, LSU 0%. Transfers in: WAKE 6, LSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

WAKE has played the 64th-hardest schedule, LSU the 49th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: WAKE plays 70.2 a game (112th fastest), LSU 70.5 (95th). Faster games mean more points

Even

WAKE offense vs LSU defense

Offense 80th of 366 against a defense 77th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LSU -7.6	—
Total	—	156.1	—
Projected score	—	WAKE 74.2 · LSU 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -4.4	—
1H total	72.9	—
1H projected score	WAKE 34.3 · LSU 38.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WWLWL	16-19	46%	3-6	—
LSU WLLLW	18-14	56%	7-10	—

Venue/role: WAKE away; LSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UOUOO	20-15	57%	18-17
LSU OUOOO	16-16	50%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
LSU	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wake Forest

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs MASS	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs HAMP	W97–70WO
Dec 15	vs GWEB	No recent meeting

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs HOF	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs HOU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WAKE 0–3 LSULSU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · LSU has won the last 3 meetings · WAKE 0-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 19, 2023-24	LSU 86 vs WAKE 80	WAKE -0.5	LSU W
Dec 10, 2022-23	WAKE 70 vs LSU 72	LSU +1.5	LSU W
Nov 27, 2021-22	LSU 75 vs WAKE 61	WAKE +7	LSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wake Forest

35 games played

Straight up

18-17

51% wins

Against the spread

16-19

46% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1751%

W W L W L W W W L W W W L L W L L W L L L L L W W W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1946%

L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L L W L L L L L W W W W L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1557%

O U O O O U U O U U O U O U O O O U O O O O O U U O U U O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsUML	W 109-75	-30.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 20	vsTTU	L 83-84	+9.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsMEM	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsCAM	W 99-51	-17.5	W +30.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 28	vsNE	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsOU	L 68-86	-4.5	L −22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsWVU	W 75-66	+2.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 141
Dec 14	vsQUC	W 111-73	-18.5	W +19.5	165.5	O 184
Dec 17	vsLONG	W 71-68	-24.5	L −21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsVAN	L 67-98	+5.5	L −25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 31	@NCSU	L 57-70	+10.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 127
Jan 3	vsVT	W 81-78	-5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 7	vsMIA	L 77-81	-1.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 158
Jan 10	@UNC	L 84-87	+10.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 171
Jan 17	@FSU	W 69-68	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 137
Jan 20	vsSMU	L 79-91	-1.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 170
Jan 24	@DUKE	L 69-90	+19.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 27	@PITT	L 76-80	+1.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsNCSU	L 78-96	+5.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 174
Feb 7	vsLOU	L 80-88	+9.5	W +1.5	162.5	O 168
Feb 11	@GT	W 83-67	-3.5	W +12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsSTAN	W 68-63	-4.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 18	vsCLEM	W 85-77	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 162
Feb 21	@VT	L 63-82	+3.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 145
Feb 25	@BC	L 67-68	-3.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsSYR	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@UVA	L 70-75	+14.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 145
Mar 7	vsCAL	W 80-73	-5.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 153
Mar 10	vsVT	W 95-89	-1.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 184
Mar 11	vsCLEM	L 62-71	+5.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 133
Mar 18	vsNAVY	W 82-72	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 154
Mar 22	vsILST	L 75-78	-8.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

UML

W 109-75

+3.5

TTU

L 83-84

+8.5

MEM

W 69-68

−1.5

CAM

W 99-51

+30.5

W 86-73

−4.5

L 68-86

−22.5

WVU

W 75-66

+11.5

QUC

W 111-73

+19.5

LONG

W 71-68

−21.5

VAN

L 67-98

−25.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−2.5

W 81-78

−2.5

MIA

L 77-81

−5.5

UNC

L 84-87

+7.5

FSU

W 69-68

−0.5

SMU

L 79-91

−13.5

DUKE

L 69-90

−1.5

PITT

L 76-80

−2.5

NCSU

L 78-96

−12.5

LOU

L 80-88

+1.5

W 83-67

+12.5

STAN

W 68-63

+0.5

CLEM

W 85-77

+12.5

L 63-82

−15.5

L 67-68

−4.5

SYR

W 88-83

+1.5

UVA

L 70-75

+9.5

CAL

W 80-73

+1.5

W 95-89

+4.5

CLEM

L 62-71

−3.5

NAVY

W 82-72

+0.5

ILST

L 75-78

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 19avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

UML

W 109-75

+18.5

TTU

L 83-84

+6.5

MEM

W 69-68

−23.5

CAM

W 99-51

−9.5

W 86-73

+4.5

L 68-86

−5.5

WVU

W 75-66

−2.5

QUC

W 111-73

+18.5

LONG

W 71-68

−24.5

VAN

L 67-98

+0.5

NCSU

L 57-70

−32.5

W 81-78

+5.5

MIA

L 77-81

+0.5

UNC

L 84-87

+16.5

FSU

W 69-68

−31.5

SMU

L 79-91

+12.5

DUKE

L 69-90

+5.5

PITT

L 76-80

+5.5

NCSU

L 78-96

+17.5

LOU

L 80-88

+5.5

W 83-67

−8.5

STAN

W 68-63

−19.5

CLEM

W 85-77

+21.5

L 63-82

−5.5

L 67-68

−10.5

SYR

W 88-83

+18.5

UVA

L 70-75

−5.5

CAL

W 80-73

−1.5

W 95-89

+33.5

CLEM

L 62-71

−10.5

NAVY

W 82-72

+5.5

ILST

L 75-78

+0.5

over 20under 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1456%

W W L L W L W W L W L L W W L W W W L W L W L L W W W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U O O O U O U U O U O U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 28	vsDRKE	W 71-62	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsDEP	W 96-63	-5.5	W +27.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 3	@BC	W 78-69	-7.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 7	vsTTU	L 58-82	+5.5	L −18.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 13	vsSMU	W 89-77	-1.5	W +10.5	158.5	O 166
Dec 19	vsSELA	W 78-65	-24.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 22	vsPV	W 104-90	-29.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 194
Dec 29	vsUSM	W 90-62	-21.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 3	@TA&M	L 72-75	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	U 147
Jan 6	vsSC	L 68-78	-7.5	L −17.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 10	@VAN	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	vsUK	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	vsMIZ	W 78-70	-1.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 20	@FLA	L 61-79	+15.5	L −2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	@ARK	L 81-85	+10.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 28	vsMSST	L 66-80	-7.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 31	@SC	W 92-87	-2.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsUGA	L 71-83	+1.5	L −10.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 10	vsARK	L 62-91	+4.5	L −24.5	159.5	U 153
Feb 14	@TENN	L 63-73	+14.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 17	@TEX	L 85-88	+10.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	vsALA	L 83-90	+7.5	W +0.5	172.5	O 173
Feb 25	@MISS	W 106-99	+2.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 205
Feb 28	vsOU	L 67-83	-1.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 150
Mar 3	@AUB	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 162
Mar 7	vsTA&M	L 91-94	+2.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 185
Mar 11	vsUK	L 82-87	+8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−2.5

DEP

W 96-63

+27.5

W 78-69

+1.5

TTU

L 58-82

−18.5

SMU

W 89-77

+10.5

SELA

W 78-65

−11.5

W 104-90

−15.5

USM

W 90-62

+6.5

TA&M

L 72-75

+2.5

L 68-78

−17.5

VAN

L 73-84

+2.5

L 74-75

+2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

+6.5

FLA

L 61-79

−2.5

ARK

L 81-85

+6.5

MSST

L 66-80

−21.5

W 92-87

+2.5

UGA

L 71-83

−10.5

ARK

L 62-91

−24.5

TENN

L 63-73

+4.5

TEX

L 85-88

+7.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+9.5

L 67-83

−17.5

AUB

L 74-88

−3.5

TA&M

L 91-94

−0.5

L 82-87

+3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

DRKE

W 71-62

−18.5

DEP

W 96-63

+6.5

W 78-69

−2.5

TTU

L 58-82

−14.5

SMU

W 89-77

+7.5

SELA

W 78-65

−1.5

W 104-90

+32.5

USM

W 90-62

−2.5

TA&M

L 72-75

−21.5

L 68-78

+0.5

VAN

L 73-84

−2.5

L 74-75

−2.5

MIZ

W 78-70

−0.5

FLA

L 61-79

−18.5

ARK

L 81-85

+2.5

MSST

L 66-80

−8.5

W 92-87

+31.5

UGA

L 71-83

−7.5

ARK

L 62-91

−6.5

TENN

L 63-73

−7.5

TEX

L 85-88

+22.5

ALA

L 83-90

+0.5

MISS

W 106-99

+57.5

L 67-83

−5.5

AUB

L 74-88

+6.5

TA&M

L 91-94

+23.5

L 82-87

+17.5

over 16under 16avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU has the better starters

Position by position: Wake Forest 1, LSU 3, even 1

Wake ForestBetterLSU

G K. Kennedy TR18.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 4.2 ast Score 91

Even

G D. Dent TR13.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 7.6 ast Score 95

G J. Ray TR11.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 56

WAKEBig

G A. Nunez TR9.6 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 17

G J. McDowell TR3.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 40

LSUBig

G S. Clark TR11.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 2 ast Score 87

F R. Nyeri TR8.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 34

LSUBig

G A. Bashir TR13.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92

F X. Pintelon TR5.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 47

LSUBig

F M. Dioubate TR8.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1 ast Score 94

Wake ForestBetterLSU

WAKE offense80th of 366 · +0.5

Even

LSU defense77th of 366 · +0.5

WAKE defense96th of 366 · -0.5

LSUSmall

LSU offense37th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players

LSUBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players

LSUBig

Frontcourt+3.1 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

LSUSmall

Bench+0.4 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestWAKE betterLSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wake Forest

Guards

K. Kennedy37 min · TRJ. Ray29 min · TRJ. McDowell17 min · TRI. Carr13 minA. Beard2 minW. Underwood2 min

Forwards

R. Nyeri26 min · TRX. Pintelon18 min · TRV. Ricchiuti2 minJ. AbsonNewV. ChaudhriNewG. PlacideNew

Centers

A. Dorn9 min · TR

LSU

Guards

D. Dent34 min · TRA. Nunez29 min · TRS. Clark29 min · TRA. Bashir25 min · TRD. Ugochukwu16 min · TRL. StansburyNew

Forwards

M. Dioubate22 min · TRS. NiangNewJ. BenderNew

Centers

B. DessertNewG. LevyNewS. PearsonNewM. RuzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WAKE78.8 #83

LSU81.4 #41

Points per possession

WAKE1.12 #94

LSU1.15 #60

Pace (possessions)

WAKE70.2 #112

LSU70.5 #95

Shooting

Effective FG%

WAKE52.7 #117

LSU52.8 #111

3-point %

WAKE34.1 #166

LSU33.1 #225

3-point attempt rate

WAKE43.6 #99

LSU34.5 #286

Free throw rate

WAKE35.2 #170

LSU40.9 #49

Possessions

Turnover rate

WAKE15.5 #107

LSU15.5 #106

Offensive rebound rate

WAKE30.1 #196

LSU33.1 #87

Assists per game

WAKE14.4 #123

LSU14.7 #106

Defense

Points allowed

WAKE76.9 #239

LSU78.5 #279

Points allowed per possession

WAKE1.10 #214

LSU1.12 #270

Opponent effective FG%

WAKE51.8 #202

LSU50.9 #150

Opponent 3-point %

WAKE32.9 #117

LSU35.4 #271

Turnovers forced

WAKE17.7 #114

LSU14.0 #335

Defensive rebound rate

WAKE67.0 #298

LSU68.3 #239

Steals per game

WAKE7.7 #59

LSU6.0 #240

Blocks per game

WAKE3.5 #136

LSU3.9 #87

WAKE		LSU
Scoring
78.8 #83	Points per game	81.4 #41
1.12 #94	Points per possession	1.15 #60
70.2 #112	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #95
Shooting
52.7 #117	Effective FG%	52.8 #111
34.1 #166	3-point %	33.1 #225
43.6 #99	3-point attempt rate	34.5 #286
35.2 #170	Free throw rate	40.9 #49
Possessions
15.5 #107	Turnover rate	15.5 #106
30.1 #196	Offensive rebound rate	33.1 #87
14.4 #123	Assists per game	14.7 #106
Defense
76.9 #239	Points allowed	78.5 #279
1.10 #214	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #270
51.8 #202	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #150
32.9 #117	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #271
17.7 #114	Turnovers forced	14.0 #335
67.0 #298	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #239
7.7 #59	Steals per game	6.0 #240
3.5 #136	Blocks per game	3.9 #87

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wake Forest

18-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois St75–78
Wvs Navy82–72
Lvs Clemson62–71
Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
Wvs California80–73

A week or more of rest.

LSU

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kentucky82–87
Lvs Texas A&M91–94
L@ Auburn74–88
Lvs Oklahoma67–83
W@ Ole Miss106–99

A week or more of rest.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at LSU Tigers

What could decide it: LSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wake Forest

LSU

LSU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wake Forest

LSU