Duke Blue Devils at Florida Gators: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 9:30 PM ETStephen C. O'Connell Center · at Florida

#3DUKEDuke AP #2

#1FLAFlorida AP #1

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Duke and Florida
DUKE	This season	FLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 81–74 · win probability FLA 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

DUKE 3, FLA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: DUKE plays 66.8 a game (285th fastest), FLA 72.0 (34th). Faster games mean more points

DUKEBig

Three-pointers

DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%; FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 43.5% and 37.0% of their shots

DUKESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DUKE 16.0%, FLA 16.4%. Forced: DUKE 17.2%, FLA 15.2%

FLASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DUKE 47%, FLA 85%. Transfers in: DUKE 3, FLA 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

DUKESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DUKE 38.2, FLA 39.0. Allowed: DUKE 22.8, FLA 34.0

FLASmall

Home court

FLA at home. This season: FLA 0-0 at home, DUKE 0-0 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2; FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1

Context

Schedule so far

DUKE has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, FLA the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DUKE offense vs FLA defense

Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DUKE 38.4%, FLA 43.4%. Defensive: DUKE 74.8%, FLA 75.2%

Even

FLA offense vs DUKE defense

Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FLA -7.5	—
Total	—	155.2	—
Projected score	—	DUKE 73.9 · FLA 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FLA -4.3	—
1H total	72.5	—
1H projected score	DUKE 34.1 · FLA 38.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE LLWLL	21-17	55%	8-3	—
FLA WLLWL	19-16	54%	7-8	—

Venue/role: DUKE away; FLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUUOO	14-24	37%	35-3
FLA UUOOU	15-20	43%	27-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
FLA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Duke

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	vs HARV	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs UGA	No recent meeting
Dec 15	vs CAM	W67–56LU

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs UVM	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs GT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DUKE 1–0 FLADUKE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DUKE 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 2, 2025-26	FLA 66 @ DUKE 67	DUKE -9.5	FLA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Duke

38 games played

Straight up

35-3

92% wins

Against the spread

21-17

55% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-24

37% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

35-392%

W W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1755%

W W W W W W L L L W L L L L W L W W W W W L L L W W W W W W L L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-2437%

U U O U U U U U U U O O O O U O U U O U U U U U U O U O U O U O U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsTEX	W 75-60	-10.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsWCU	W 95-54	-36.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 11	@ARMY	W 114-59	-33.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 14	vsINST	W 100-62	-37.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 18	vsKU	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsNIA	W 100-42	-39.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 23	vsHOW	W 93-56	-43.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 149
Nov 27	vsARK	W 80-71	-12.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 151
Dec 2	vsFLA	W 67-66	-9.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 133
Dec 6	@MSU	W 66-60	-1.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	vsLIP	W 97-73	-32.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsTTU	L 81-82	-9.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 31	vsGT	W 85-79	-27.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 164
Jan 3	@FSU	W 91-87	-16.5	L −12.5	163.5	O 178
Jan 6	@LOU	W 84-73	-1.5	W +9.5	161.5	U 157
Jan 10	vsSMU	W 82-75	-15.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 157
Jan 14	@CAL	W 71-56	-14.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 127
Jan 17	@STAN	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 24	vsWAKE	W 90-69	-19.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 26	vsLOU	W 83-52	-8.5	W +22.5	157.5	U 135
Jan 31	@VT	W 72-58	-13.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 130
Feb 3	vsBC	W 67-49	-26.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 7	@UNC	L 68-71	-6.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 10	@PITT	W 70-54	-17.5	L −1.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsCLEM	W 67-54	-12.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 16	vsSYR	W 101-64	-20.5	W +16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsMICH	W 68-63	+3.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 131
Feb 24	@ND	W 100-56	-16.5	W +27.5	141.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsUVA	W 77-51	-9.5	W +16.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NCSU	W 93-64	-8.5	W +20.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 7	vsUNC	W 76-61	-18.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 137
Mar 12	vsFSU	W 80-79	-16.5	L −15.5	150.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsCLEM	W 73-61	-10.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 134
Mar 14	vsUVA	W 74-70	-6.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 19	vsSIE	W 71-65	-28.5	L −22.5	137.5	U 136
Mar 21	vsTCU	W 81-58	-12.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 139
Mar 27	vsSJU	W 80-75	-6.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 155
Mar 29	vsCONN	L 72-73	-4.5	L −5.5	135.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

+4.5

WCU

W 95-54

+4.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+21.5

INST

W 100-62

+0.5

W 78-66

+1.5

NIA

W 100-42

+18.5

HOW

W 93-56

−6.5

ARK

W 80-71

−3.5

FLA

W 67-66

−8.5

MSU

W 66-60

+4.5

LIP

W 97-73

−8.5

TTU

L 81-82

−10.5

W 85-79

−21.5

FSU

W 91-87

−12.5

LOU

W 84-73

+9.5

SMU

W 82-75

−8.5

CAL

W 71-56

+0.5

STAN

W 80-50

+18.5

WAKE

W 90-69

+1.5

LOU

W 83-52

+22.5

W 72-58

+0.5

W 67-49

−8.5

UNC

L 68-71

−9.5

PITT

W 70-54

−1.5

CLEM

W 67-54

+0.5

SYR

W 101-64

+16.5

MICH

W 68-63

+8.5

W 100-56

+27.5

UVA

W 77-51

+16.5

NCSU

W 93-64

+20.5

UNC

W 76-61

−3.5

FSU

W 80-79

−15.5

CLEM

W 73-61

+1.5

UVA

W 74-70

−2.5

SIE

W 71-65

−22.5

TCU

W 81-58

+10.5

SJU

W 80-75

−1.5

CONN

L 72-73

−5.5

covered 21didn’t cover 17avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

−18.5

WCU

W 95-54

−3.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+20.5

INST

W 100-62

−1.5

W 78-66

−5.5

NIA

W 100-42

−4.5

HOW

W 93-56

−5.5

ARK

W 80-71

−8.5

FLA

W 67-66

−24.5

MSU

W 66-60

−15.5

LIP

W 97-73

+18.5

TTU

L 81-82

+10.5

W 85-79

+10.5

FSU

W 91-87

+14.5

LOU

W 84-73

−4.5

SMU

W 82-75

+1.5

CAL

W 71-56

−22.5

STAN

W 80-50

−18.5

WAKE

W 90-69

+5.5

LOU

W 83-52

−22.5

W 72-58

−18.5

W 67-49

−25.5

UNC

L 68-71

−13.5

PITT

W 70-54

−12.5

CLEM

W 67-54

−13.5

SYR

W 101-64

+20.5

MICH

W 68-63

−20.5

W 100-56

+14.5

UVA

W 77-51

−15.5

NCSU

W 93-64

+6.5

UNC

W 76-61

−10.5

FSU

W 80-79

+8.5

CLEM

W 73-61

−0.5

UVA

W 74-70

+3.5

SIE

W 71-65

−1.5

TCU

W 81-58

−1.5

SJU

W 80-75

+14.5

CONN

L 72-73

+9.5

over 14under 24avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

L W W W W L W L L W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O U U O O O U U U O U U O U O U O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARIZ	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 6	vsUNF	W 104-64	-43.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	vsFSU	W 78-76	-17.5	L −15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 16	vsMIA	W 82-68	-10.5	W +3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 21	vsMRMK	W 80-45	-36.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 27	vsTCU	L 80-84	-11.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsPROV	W 90-78	-12.5	L −0.5	169.5	U 168
Dec 2	@DUKE	L 66-67	+9.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 133
Dec 9	vsCONN	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsGW	W 80-70	-14.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 17	vsSFPA	W 102-61	-44.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsCOLG	W 90-60	-27.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsDART	W 94-72	-35.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 3	@MIZ	L 74-76	-7.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsUGA	W 92-77	-9.5	W +5.5	172.5	U 169
Jan 10	vsTENN	W 91-67	-4.5	W +19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	@OU	W 96-79	-7.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	@VAN	W 98-94	-1.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	vsLSU	W 79-61	-15.5	W +2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsAUB	L 67-76	-11.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	@SC	W 95-48	-13.5	W +33.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 1	vsALA	W 100-77	-9.5	W +13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 7	@TA&M	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	167.5	U 153
Feb 11	@UGA	W 86-66	-8.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUK	W 92-83	-12.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsSC	W 76-62	-23.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	@MISS	W 94-75	-13.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	@TEX	W 84-71	-6.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 28	vsARK	W 111-77	-9.5	W +24.5	169.5	O 188
Mar 3	vsMSST	W 108-74	-20.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	@UK	W 84-77	-5.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 13	vsUK	W 71-63	-10.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 14	vsVAN	L 74-91	-7.5	L −24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 20	vsPV	W 114-55	-35.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 169
Mar 22	vsIOWA	L 72-73	-10.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

−9.5

UNF

W 104-64

−3.5

FSU

W 78-76

−15.5

MIA

W 82-68

+3.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−1.5

TCU

L 80-84

−15.5

PROV

W 90-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 66-67

+8.5

CONN

L 73-77

+0.5

W 80-70

−4.5

SFPA

W 102-61

−3.5

COLG

W 90-60

+2.5

DART

W 94-72

−13.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−9.5

UGA

W 92-77

+5.5

TENN

W 91-67

+19.5

W 96-79

+9.5

VAN

W 98-94

+2.5

LSU

W 79-61

+2.5

AUB

L 67-76

−20.5

W 95-48

+33.5

ALA

W 100-77

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-67

+13.5

UGA

W 86-66

+11.5

W 92-83

−3.5

W 76-62

−9.5

MISS

W 94-75

+5.5

TEX

W 84-71

+6.5

ARK

W 111-77

+24.5

MSST

W 108-74

+13.5

W 84-77

+1.5

W 71-63

−2.5

VAN

L 74-91

−24.5

W 114-55

+23.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−11.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

+15.5

UNF

W 104-64

−1.5

FSU

W 78-76

−26.5

MIA

W 82-68

−21.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−33.5

TCU

L 80-84

+8.5

PROV

W 90-78

−1.5

DUKE

L 66-67

−24.5

CONN

L 73-77

+4.5

W 80-70

−12.5

SFPA

W 102-61

+6.5

COLG

W 90-60

−6.5

DART

W 94-72

+5.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−4.5

UGA

W 92-77

−3.5

TENN

W 91-67

+6.5

W 96-79

+17.5

VAN

W 98-94

+27.5

LSU

W 79-61

−18.5

AUB

L 67-76

−16.5

W 95-48

−8.5

ALA

W 100-77

+0.5

TA&M

W 86-67

−14.5

UGA

W 86-66

−12.5

W 92-83

+20.5

W 76-62

−18.5

MISS

W 94-75

+16.5

TEX

W 84-71

−2.5

ARK

W 111-77

+18.5

MSST

W 108-74

+20.5

W 84-77

−1.5

W 71-63

−27.5

VAN

L 74-91

+3.5

W 114-55

+14.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−0.5

over 15under 20avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Duke 0, Florida 1, even 4

DukeBetterFlorida

G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97

Even

G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90

G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76

Even

G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89

G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86

Even

F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97

G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85

Even

F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52

FLABig

C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97

DukeBetterFlorida

DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1

Even

FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4

DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4

Even

FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0

Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players

DUKEBig

Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player

FLABig

Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players

Bench+7.0 · 2 players

DUKEBig

Bench+3.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDUKE betterFLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Duke

Guards

J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew

Forwards

D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew

Centers

P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew

Florida

Guards

D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min

Forwards

T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew

Centers

R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DUKE81.6 #36

FLA87.1 #5

Points per possession

DUKE1.23 #4

FLA1.21 #7

Pace (possessions)

DUKE66.8 #285

FLA72.0 #34

Shooting

Effective FG%

DUKE56.6 #13

FLA54.1 #63

3-point %

DUKE34.7 #133

FLA31.2 #315

3-point attempt rate

DUKE43.5 #100

FLA37.0 #230

Free throw rate

DUKE38.2 #97

FLA39.0 #80

Possessions

Turnover rate

DUKE16.0 #139

FLA16.4 #162

Offensive rebound rate

DUKE38.4 #4

FLA43.4 #2

Assists per game

DUKE16.7 #32

FLA17.0 #26

Defense

Points allowed

DUKE63.6 #3

FLA71.5 #93

Points allowed per possession

DUKE0.95 #2

FLA0.99 #19

Opponent effective FG%

DUKE46.2 #13

FLA46.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

DUKE30.6 #27

FLA32.1 #66

Turnovers forced

DUKE17.2 #133

FLA15.2 #269

Defensive rebound rate

DUKE74.8 #10

FLA75.2 #7

Steals per game

DUKE7.4 #92

FLA6.6 #158

Blocks per game

DUKE3.4 #164

FLA5.0 #16

DUKE		FLA
Scoring
81.6 #36	Points per game	87.1 #5
1.23 #4	Points per possession	1.21 #7
66.8 #285	Pace (possessions)	72.0 #34
Shooting
56.6 #13	Effective FG%	54.1 #63
34.7 #133	3-point %	31.2 #315
43.5 #100	3-point attempt rate	37.0 #230
38.2 #97	Free throw rate	39.0 #80
Possessions
16.0 #139	Turnover rate	16.4 #162
38.4 #4	Offensive rebound rate	43.4 #2
16.7 #32	Assists per game	17.0 #26
Defense
63.6 #3	Points allowed	71.5 #93
0.95 #2	Points allowed per possession	0.99 #19
46.2 #13	Opponent effective FG%	46.1 #10
30.6 #27	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #66
17.2 #133	Turnovers forced	15.2 #269
74.8 #10	Defensive rebound rate	75.2 #7
7.4 #92	Steals per game	6.6 #158
3.4 #164	Blocks per game	5.0 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn72–73
Wvs St John's80–75
Wvs TCU81–58
Wvs Siena71–65
Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa72–73
Wvs Prairie View114–55
Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
Wvs Kentucky71–63
W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.

Duke Blue Devils at Florida Gators

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Duke

Florida

Florida has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Duke

Florida