Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Diego Toreros: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 9:30 PM ETJenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawai'i and San Diego
HAW	This season	USD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USD 76–75 · win probability USD 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HAW has more of the edges

HAW 4, USD 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HAWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HAW 31.3%, USD 28.1%. Defensive: HAW 74.7%, USD 65.5%

HAWBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HAW 41.4, USD 25.8. Allowed: HAW 35.6, USD 38.8

HAWBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HAW 52.0 and allows 46.8; USD 51.2 and allows 54.7

Context

Schedule so far

HAW has played the 242nd-hardest schedule, USD the 130th. A record against a soft schedule means less

USDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HAW 18.8%, USD 17.6%. Forced: HAW 16.8%, USD 18.8%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: HAW plays 73.0 a game (19th fastest), USD 69.6 (139th). Faster games mean more points

HAWSmall

HAW offense vs USD defense

Offense 136th of 366 against a defense 189th, on the model’s ratings

USDSmall

Home court

USD at home. This season: USD 0-0 at home, HAW 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

HAW hits 31.7% and allows 30.3%; USD hits 34.6% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 39.8% and 43.7% of their shots

Even

USD offense vs HAW defense

Offense 127th of 366 against a defense 150th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HAW 10%, USD 7%. Transfers in: HAW 6, USD 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	USD -1.3	—
Total	—	150.2	—
Projected score	—	HAW 74.5 · USD 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USD -0.6	—
1H total	70.2	—
1H projected score	HAW 34.8 · USD 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLWWL	13-16	45%	5-6	—
USD LLLWW	16-15	52%	10-5	—

Venue/role: HAW away; USD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW OOUUO	14-15	48%	22-9
USD UOOUU	13-18	42%	10-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
USD	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawai'i

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	@ LMU	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs SELA	No recent meeting

San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ WYO	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs USC	L81–94WO
Dec 11	vs PV	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HAW 1–0 USDHAW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · HAW 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2023-24	USD 66 vs HAW 77	HAW -7.5	HAW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawai'i

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L W W W W L W W W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W L W L L W––L W L L W L W W L L L W L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1548%

U O U U U O U––U U O U U U O U O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ORE	L 59-60	+11.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsETAM	W 100-74	-18.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMVSU	W 88-56	-41.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsMAN	W 86-56	-15.5	W +14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsUTU	W 68-62	-16.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsASU	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 28	vsUND	W 92-55	-18.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 4	vsUCD	W 75-69	—	—	—	—
Dec 6	vsCSUF	W 69-59	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	vsUTEP	W 66-61	-12.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UCR	W 88-45	-8.5	W +34.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 3	@UCSD	L 73-83	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsUCI	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 15	@CP	W 86-66	-5.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 152
Jan 17	@UCSB	L 62-77	-2.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 22	vsCSUB	W 98-71	-17.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsCSUN	W 89-68	-10.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	@UCI	L 76-87	+1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 31	@LBSU	W 89-82	-8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsUCSD	W 72-67	-6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	@CSUB	W 89-74	-13.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 14	@CSUN	L 60-84	-2.5	L −26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	vsCP	L 75-86	-11.5	L −22.5	160.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsUCSB	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 26	@UCD	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 28	@CSUF	W 87-85	-3.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsUCR	W 93-74	-12.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsLBSU	L 75-84	-14.5	L −23.5	150.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsCSUF	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	157.5	U 141
Mar 14	vsUCI	W 71-64	+1.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 135
Mar 19	vsARK	L 78-97	+14.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

+10.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+7.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−9.5

MAN

W 86-56

+14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−10.5

ASU

L 76-83

−8.5

UND

W 92-55

+18.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−7.5

UCR

W 88-45

+34.5

UCSD

L 73-83

−7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−3.5

W 86-66

+14.5

UCSB

L 62-77

−17.5

CSUB

W 98-71

+9.5

CSUN

W 89-68

+10.5

UCI

L 76-87

−9.5

LBSU

W 89-82

−1.5

UCSD

W 72-67

−1.5

CSUB

W 89-74

+1.5

CSUN

L 60-84

−26.5

L 75-86

−22.5

UCSB

W 78-75

−2.5

UCD

W 77-73

+2.5

CSUF

W 87-85

−1.5

UCR

W 93-74

+6.5

LBSU

L 75-84

−23.5

CSUF

W 78-63

+9.5

UCI

W 71-64

+8.5

ARK

L 78-97

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

−25.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+28.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−7.5

MAN

W 86-56

−14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−19.5

ASU

L 76-83

+15.5

UND

W 92-55

−2.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−11.5

UCR

W 88-45

−16.5

UCSD

L 73-83

+7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−7.5

W 86-66

−8.5

UCSB

L 62-77

−4.5

CSUB

W 98-71

+24.5

CSUN

W 89-68

−1.5

UCI

L 76-87

+18.5

LBSU

W 89-82

+26.5

UCSD

W 72-67

−10.5

CSUB

W 89-74

+11.5

CSUN

L 60-84

−18.5

L 75-86

+0.5

UCSB

W 78-75

+7.5

UCD

W 77-73

+3.5

CSUF

W 87-85

+13.5

UCR

W 93-74

+16.5

LBSU

L 75-84

+8.5

CSUF

W 78-63

−16.5

UCI

W 71-64

−6.5

ARK

L 78-97

+16.5

over 14under 15avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L W W L L L L L W W L W L L L W L L W L W L L L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1552%

L W W L L L L W W W L W W W L W W L W W W L L L W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

U U U O U O O O U O U U O U O U U U O U O O U U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsIDST	L 68-71	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsIDHO	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 18	vsGRAM	W 78-68	-6.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 146
Nov 21	vsUCR	L 71-85	-7.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 25	vsCBU	L 61-76	+7.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 30	@LBSU	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 5	@SJSU	L 69-86	+6.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsUSC	L 81-94	+14.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 13	vsNAU	W 78-69	-4.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 19	@UCSD	W 82-80	+12.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 162
Dec 22	@WASH	L 56-86	+18.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 142
Dec 28	vsPAC	W 66-54	+2.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 30	vsGONZ	L 93-99	+29.5	W +23.5	160.5	O 192
Jan 2	@SF	L 64-74	+12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 138
Jan 4	@SCU	L 70-98	+17.5	L −10.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 8	vsPEPP	W 83-63	-4.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	@PAC	L 70-77	+8.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 147
Jan 15	@SEA	L 64-75	+9.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 21	vsWSU	W 96-92	+1.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 188
Jan 24	vsSCU	L 73-85	+13.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 28	@PEPP	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 180
Jan 31	vsORST	L 76-78	-3.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 154
Feb 4	@SMC	L 60-87	+20.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 7	@LMU	L 63-83	+6.5	L −13.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	vsPORT	W 71-58	-1.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 129
Feb 15	vsSF	L 79-92	+5.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 171
Feb 21	vsLMU	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 25	@ORST	L 82-92	+6.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 174
Feb 28	@PORT	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 161
Mar 5	vsLMU	W 66-62	+5.5	W +9.5	145.5	U 128
Mar 6	vsSEA	L 56-58	+8.5	W +6.5	139.5	U 114

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−7.5

IDHO

W 78-74

+5.5

GRAM

W 78-68

+3.5

UCR

L 71-85

−21.5

CBU

L 61-76

−7.5

LBSU

L 72-76

−6.5

SJSU

L 69-86

−10.5

USC

L 81-94

+1.5

NAU

W 78-69

+4.5

UCSD

W 82-80

+14.5

WASH

L 56-86

−11.5

PAC

W 66-54

+14.5

GONZ

L 93-99

+23.5

L 64-74

+2.5

SCU

L 70-98

−10.5

PEPP

W 83-63

+15.5

PAC

L 70-77

+1.5

SEA

L 64-75

−1.5

WSU

W 96-92

+5.5

SCU

L 73-85

+1.5

PEPP

W 92-88

+1.5

ORST

L 76-78

−5.5

SMC

L 60-87

−6.5

LMU

L 63-83

−13.5

PORT

W 71-58

+11.5

L 79-92

−7.5

LMU

L 65-77

−9.5

ORST

L 82-92

−3.5

PORT

L 74-87

−10.5

LMU

W 66-62

+9.5

SEA

L 56-58

+6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−13.5

IDHO

W 78-74

−3.5

GRAM

W 78-68

−3.5

UCR

L 71-85

+3.5

CBU

L 61-76

−9.5

LBSU

L 72-76

+0.5

SJSU

L 69-86

+10.5

USC

L 81-94

+16.5

NAU

W 78-69

−2.5

UCSD

W 82-80

+5.5

WASH

L 56-86

−17.5

PAC

W 66-54

−30.5

GONZ

L 93-99

+31.5

L 64-74

−14.5

SCU

L 70-98

+6.5

PEPP

W 83-63

−3.5

PAC

L 70-77

−0.5

SEA

L 64-75

−8.5

WSU

W 96-92

+35.5

SCU

L 73-85

−4.5

PEPP

W 92-88

+28.5

ORST

L 76-78

+3.5

SMC

L 60-87

−1.5

LMU

L 63-83

−5.5

PORT

W 71-58

−21.5

L 79-92

+22.5

LMU

L 65-77

−7.5

ORST

L 82-92

+29.5

PORT

L 74-87

+12.5

LMU

W 66-62

−17.5

SEA

L 56-58

−25.5

over 13under 18avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: Hawai'i 2, San Diego 3, even 0

Hawai'iBetterSan Diego

G C. Trujillo TR12.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 39

USDSmall

G M. Worthy TR16.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 3 ast Score 72

G I. Kerr6.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38

USDBig

G D. Hill TR14.2 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92

F Z. Davidson TR12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 69

HAWBig

G D. Stromer TR6.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 29

C B. Dengdit TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 62

HAWSmall

F T. McMorris TR7.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 47

C H. Dan TR5.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 36

USDSmall

F A. Munoz TR12.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 56

Hawai'iBetterSan Diego

HAW offense136th of 366 · -3.9

Even

USD defense189th of 366 · -4.4

HAW defense150th of 366 · -3.3

Even

USD offense127th of 366 · -3.5

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

USDBig

Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players

HAWSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 2 players

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

Even

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHAW betterUSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawai'i

Guards

C. Trujillo34 min · TRI. Kerr21 minT. CuffNewJ. MatingouNewL. AwanNewS. BelnapNew

Forwards

Z. Davidson24 min · TRM. Adams12 min · TRM. Joses9 min · TRK. HamptonNew

Centers

B. Dengdit23 min · TRH. Dan15 min · TR

San Diego

Guards

M. Worthy35 min · TRD. Hill27 min · TRD. Stromer23 min · TRC. Versher2 minN. Del Bosque1 minB. RomanNew

Forwards

T. McMorris26 min · TRA. Munoz25 min · TRJ. Roberto Tanchyn19 min · TRS. Konneh13 min · TRA. Aviles11 minJ. HillNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HAW78.7 #86

USD72.8 #228

Points per possession

HAW1.08 #186

USD1.05 #251

Pace (possessions)

HAW73.0 #19

USD69.6 #139

Shooting

Effective FG%

HAW52.0 #148

USD51.2 #185

3-point %

HAW31.7 #298

USD34.6 #141

3-point attempt rate

HAW39.8 #175

USD43.7 #96

Free throw rate

HAW41.4 #38

USD25.8 #358

Possessions

Turnover rate

HAW18.8 #315

USD17.6 #242

Offensive rebound rate

HAW31.3 #154

USD28.1 #262

Assists per game

HAW13.3 #187

USD15.4 #68

Defense

Points allowed

HAW71.2 #76

USD78.8 #290

Points allowed per possession

HAW0.98 #10

USD1.13 #286

Opponent effective FG%

HAW46.8 #19

USD54.7 #320

Opponent 3-point %

HAW30.3 #13

USD32.7 #100

Turnovers forced

HAW16.8 #167

USD18.8 #55

Defensive rebound rate

HAW74.7 #11

USD65.5 #328

Steals per game

HAW6.5 #175

USD7.7 #65

Blocks per game

HAW4.0 #73

USD2.6 #294

HAW		USD
Scoring
78.7 #86	Points per game	72.8 #228
1.08 #186	Points per possession	1.05 #251
73.0 #19	Pace (possessions)	69.6 #139
Shooting
52.0 #148	Effective FG%	51.2 #185
31.7 #298	3-point %	34.6 #141
39.8 #175	3-point attempt rate	43.7 #96
41.4 #38	Free throw rate	25.8 #358
Possessions
18.8 #315	Turnover rate	17.6 #242
31.3 #154	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #262
13.3 #187	Assists per game	15.4 #68
Defense
71.2 #76	Points allowed	78.8 #290
0.98 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #286
46.8 #19	Opponent effective FG%	54.7 #320
30.3 #13	Opponent 3-point %	32.7 #100
16.8 #167	Turnovers forced	18.8 #55
74.7 #11	Defensive rebound rate	65.5 #328
6.5 #175	Steals per game	7.7 #65
4.0 #73	Blocks per game	2.6 #294

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawai'i

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arkansas78–97
Wvs UC Irvine71–64
Wvs Fullerton78–63
Lvs Long Beach St75–84
Wvs UC Riverside93–74

A week or more of rest.

San Diego

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Seattle U56–58
Wvs LMU66–62
L@ Portland74–87
L@ Oregon St82–92
Lvs LMU65–77

A week or more of rest.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Diego Toreros

What could decide it: HAW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Hawai'i

San Diego

San Diego has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawai'i

San Diego