Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Loyola Marymount Lions: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 10:00 PM ETGersten Pavilion · at LMU

#121LMULMU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawai'i and LMU
HAW	This season	LMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LMU 74–71 · win probability LMU 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HAW has more of the edges

HAW 2, LMU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HAWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HAW 31.3%, LMU 26.7%. Defensive: HAW 74.7%, LMU 68.0%

Context

Schedule so far

HAW has played the 242nd-hardest schedule, LMU the 131st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: HAW plays 73.0 a game (19th fastest), LMU 68.9 (185th). Faster games mean more points

HAWSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HAW 41.4, LMU 31.1. Allowed: HAW 35.6, LMU 32.5

LMUSmall

Home court

LMU at home. This season: LMU 0-0 at home, HAW 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HAW 18.8%, LMU 17.4%. Forced: HAW 16.8%, LMU 16.6%

Even

HAW offense vs LMU defense

Offense 136th of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HAW 52.0 and allows 46.8; LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9

Even

Three-pointers

HAW hits 31.7% and allows 30.3%; LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 39.8% and 40.4% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HAW 10%, LMU 22%. Transfers in: HAW 6, LMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

LMU offense vs HAW defense

Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 150th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LMU -3.4	—
Total	—	145.0	—
Projected score	—	HAW 70.8 · LMU 74.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LMU -1.9	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	HAW 33 · LMU 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLWWL	13-16	45%	5-6	—
LMU LWLLL	14-17	45%	8-9	—

Venue/role: HAW away; LMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW OOUUO	14-15	48%	22-9
LMU OUUOU	15-16	48%	14-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
LMU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawai'i

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs SELA	No recent meeting

LMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs FGCU	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ NEV	W68–64WU
Dec 13	vs MCN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawai'i

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L W W W W L W W W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W L W L L W––L W L L W L W W L L L W L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1548%

U O U U U O U––U U O U U U O U O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ORE	L 59-60	+11.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsETAM	W 100-74	-18.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMVSU	W 88-56	-41.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsMAN	W 86-56	-15.5	W +14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsUTU	W 68-62	-16.5	L −10.5	149.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsASU	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 28	vsUND	W 92-55	-18.5	W +18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 4	vsUCD	W 75-69	—	—	—	—
Dec 6	vsCSUF	W 69-59	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	vsUTEP	W 66-61	-12.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UCR	W 88-45	-8.5	W +34.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 3	@UCSD	L 73-83	+2.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsUCI	W 67-66	-4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 15	@CP	W 86-66	-5.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 152
Jan 17	@UCSB	L 62-77	-2.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 22	vsCSUB	W 98-71	-17.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 169
Jan 24	vsCSUN	W 89-68	-10.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	@UCI	L 76-87	+1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 31	@LBSU	W 89-82	-8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsUCSD	W 72-67	-6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	@CSUB	W 89-74	-13.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 14	@CSUN	L 60-84	-2.5	L −26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	vsCP	L 75-86	-11.5	L −22.5	160.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsUCSB	W 78-75	-5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 26	@UCD	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 28	@CSUF	W 87-85	-3.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsUCR	W 93-74	-12.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 167
Mar 7	vsLBSU	L 75-84	-14.5	L −23.5	150.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsCSUF	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	157.5	U 141
Mar 14	vsUCI	W 71-64	+1.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 135
Mar 19	vsARK	L 78-97	+14.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

+10.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+7.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−9.5

MAN

W 86-56

+14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−10.5

ASU

L 76-83

−8.5

UND

W 92-55

+18.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−7.5

UCR

W 88-45

+34.5

UCSD

L 73-83

−7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−3.5

W 86-66

+14.5

UCSB

L 62-77

−17.5

CSUB

W 98-71

+9.5

CSUN

W 89-68

+10.5

UCI

L 76-87

−9.5

LBSU

W 89-82

−1.5

UCSD

W 72-67

−1.5

CSUB

W 89-74

+1.5

CSUN

L 60-84

−26.5

L 75-86

−22.5

UCSB

W 78-75

−2.5

UCD

W 77-73

+2.5

CSUF

W 87-85

−1.5

UCR

W 93-74

+6.5

LBSU

L 75-84

−23.5

CSUF

W 78-63

+9.5

UCI

W 71-64

+8.5

ARK

L 78-97

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORE

L 59-60

−25.5

ETAM

W 100-74

+28.5

MVSU

W 88-56

−7.5

MAN

W 86-56

−14.5

UTU

W 68-62

−19.5

ASU

L 76-83

+15.5

UND

W 92-55

−2.5

UTEP

W 66-61

−11.5

UCR

W 88-45

−16.5

UCSD

L 73-83

+7.5

UCI

W 67-66

−7.5

W 86-66

−8.5

UCSB

L 62-77

−4.5

CSUB

W 98-71

+24.5

CSUN

W 89-68

−1.5

UCI

L 76-87

+18.5

LBSU

W 89-82

+26.5

UCSD

W 72-67

−10.5

CSUB

W 89-74

+11.5

CSUN

L 60-84

−18.5

L 75-86

+0.5

UCSB

W 78-75

+7.5

UCD

W 77-73

+3.5

CSUF

W 87-85

+13.5

UCR

W 93-74

+16.5

LBSU

L 75-84

+8.5

CSUF

W 78-63

−16.5

UCI

W 71-64

−6.5

ARK

L 78-97

+16.5

over 14under 15avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

LMU

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

L W W W W L W L L L W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U U O U U O O U O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 14	vsTROY	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 17	@UCSB	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 24	vsFAU	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsOHIO	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsSTBK	L 68-71	-10.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 2	vsSLU	L 70-91	+7.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 16	vsUCSD	L 57-67	+1.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUNA	W 91-57	-10.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 23	vsMORG	W 83-56	-23.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSMC	L 73-78	+9.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsPAC	W 80-71	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	@WSU	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 154
Jan 4	@GONZ	L 47-82	+25.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSF	W 84-82	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@SCU	L 72-103	+11.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	@ORST	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPORT	L 58-71	-8.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 21	@SEA	L 59-69	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 28	vsORST	L 69-72	-5.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsSCU	L 73-104	+8.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@SF	W 84-75	+8.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsUSD	W 83-63	-6.5	W +13.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	@PAC	L 59-65	+5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Feb 14	@PEPP	L 89-90	-5.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 21	@USD	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 25	vsWSU	W 67-66	-1.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 133
Feb 28	vsSEA	L 66-71	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 5	vsUSD	L 62-66	-5.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

TROY

W 74-63

+6.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+7.5

FAU

L 65-76

−7.5

OHIO

W 70-58

+8.5

STBK

L 68-71

−13.5

SLU

L 70-91

−13.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−8.5

UNA

W 91-57

+23.5

MORG

W 83-56

+3.5

SMC

L 73-78

+4.5

PAC

W 80-71

+5.5

WSU

L 76-78

+1.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−9.5

W 84-82

+0.5

SCU

L 72-103

−19.5

ORST

L 70-76

−7.5

PORT

L 58-71

−21.5

SEA

L 59-69

−5.5

ORST

L 69-72

−8.5

SCU

L 73-104

−22.5

W 84-75

+17.5

USD

W 83-63

+13.5

PAC

L 59-65

−0.5

PEPP

L 89-90

−6.5

USD

W 77-65

+9.5

WSU

W 67-66

−0.5

SEA

L 66-71

−6.5

USD

L 62-66

−9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

TROY

W 74-63

−3.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+6.5

FAU

L 65-76

−3.5

OHIO

W 70-58

−16.5

STBK

L 68-71

+0.5

SLU

L 70-91

+10.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−26.5

UNA

W 91-57

+7.5

MORG

W 83-56

−5.5

SMC

L 73-78

+7.5

PAC

W 80-71

+11.5

WSU

L 76-78

+11.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−25.5

W 84-82

+24.5

SCU

L 72-103

+21.5

ORST

L 70-76

+5.5

PORT

L 58-71

−19.5

SEA

L 59-69

−13.5

ORST

L 69-72

−0.5

SCU

L 73-104

+23.5

W 84-75

+13.5

USD

W 83-63

−5.5

PAC

L 59-65

−17.5

PEPP

L 89-90

+31.5

USD

W 77-65

−7.5

WSU

W 67-66

−16.5

SEA

L 66-71

+0.5

USD

L 62-66

−17.5

over 15under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LMU has the better starters

Position by position: Hawai'i 1, LMU 2, even 2

Hawai'iBetterLMU

G C. Trujillo TR12.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.7 ast Score 39

LMUSmall

G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72

G I. Kerr6.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 38

LMUSmall

G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59

F Z. Davidson TR12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 69

HAWBig

F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24

C B. Dengdit TR10.8 pts · 5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 62

Even

F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

C H. Dan TR5.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 36

Even

F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48

Hawai'iBetterLMU

HAW offense136th of 366 · -3.9

Even

LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0

HAW defense150th of 366 · -3.3

Even

LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

LMUBig

Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players

HAWBig

Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players

Bench-0.4 · 2 players

LMUSmall

Bench+1.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHAW betterLMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawai'i

Guards

C. Trujillo34 min · TRI. Kerr21 minT. CuffNewJ. MatingouNewL. AwanNewS. BelnapNew

Forwards

Z. Davidson24 min · TRM. Adams12 min · TRM. Joses9 min · TRK. HamptonNew

Centers

B. Dengdit23 min · TRH. Dan15 min · TR

LMU

Guards

Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min

Forwards

C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HAW78.7 #86

LMU72.2 #236

Points per possession

HAW1.08 #186

LMU1.04 #263

Pace (possessions)

HAW73.0 #19

LMU68.9 #185

Shooting

Effective FG%

HAW52.0 #148

LMU51.9 #152

3-point %

HAW31.7 #298

LMU34.8 #130

3-point attempt rate

HAW39.8 #175

LMU40.4 #162

Free throw rate

HAW41.4 #38

LMU31.1 #280

Possessions

Turnover rate

HAW18.8 #315

LMU17.4 #234

Offensive rebound rate

HAW31.3 #154

LMU26.7 #307

Assists per game

HAW13.3 #187

LMU12.7 #234

Defense

Points allowed

HAW71.2 #76

LMU72.7 #122

Points allowed per possession

HAW0.98 #10

LMU1.06 #103

Opponent effective FG%

HAW46.8 #19

LMU48.9 #60

Opponent 3-point %

HAW30.3 #13

LMU34.6 #225

Turnovers forced

HAW16.8 #167

LMU16.6 #178

Defensive rebound rate

HAW74.7 #11

LMU68.0 #258

Steals per game

HAW6.5 #175

LMU6.0 #236

Blocks per game

HAW4.0 #73

LMU3.9 #81

HAW		LMU
Scoring
78.7 #86	Points per game	72.2 #236
1.08 #186	Points per possession	1.04 #263
73.0 #19	Pace (possessions)	68.9 #185
Shooting
52.0 #148	Effective FG%	51.9 #152
31.7 #298	3-point %	34.8 #130
39.8 #175	3-point attempt rate	40.4 #162
41.4 #38	Free throw rate	31.1 #280
Possessions
18.8 #315	Turnover rate	17.4 #234
31.3 #154	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #307
13.3 #187	Assists per game	12.7 #234
Defense
71.2 #76	Points allowed	72.7 #122
0.98 #10	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #103
46.8 #19	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #60
30.3 #13	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #225
16.8 #167	Turnovers forced	16.6 #178
74.7 #11	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #258
6.5 #175	Steals per game	6.0 #236
4.0 #73	Blocks per game	3.9 #81

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawai'i

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arkansas78–97
Wvs UC Irvine71–64
Wvs Fullerton78–63
Lvs Long Beach St75–84
Wvs UC Riverside93–74

A week or more of rest.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs San Diego62–66
Lvs Seattle U66–71
Wvs Washington St67–66
W@ San Diego77–65
L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Loyola Marymount Lions

What could decide it: HAW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hawai'i

LMU

LMU has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawai'i

LMU