1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. USC @ USD
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

USC Trojans at San Diego Toreros

Jenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego
#36USCUSC AP #21
@
#146USDSan Diego
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USCThis seasonUSD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 85–72 · win probability USC 88%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USC has more of the edges

USC 6, USD 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USC 44.2, USD 25.8. Allowed: USC 33.4, USD 38.8
USCBig
USC offense vs USD defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 189th, on the model’s ratings
USCSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USC 64%, USD 7%. Transfers in: USC 6, USD 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
USCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USC 32.4%, USD 28.1%. Defensive: USC 67.8%, USD 65.5%
USCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: USC 50.4 and allows 49.7; USD 51.2 and allows 54.7
Context
Schedule so far
USC has played the 42nd-hardest schedule, USD the 130th. A record against a soft schedule means less
USCSmall
USD offense vs USC defense
Offense 127th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
USDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USC 17.4%, USD 17.6%. Forced: USC 16.4%, USD 18.8%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: USC plays 72.4 a game (25th fastest), USD 69.6 (139th). Faster games mean more points
USDSmall
Home court
USD at home. This season: USD 0-0 at home, USC 0-0 away
USDSmall
Three-pointers
USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%; USD hits 34.6% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 34.1% and 43.7% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USC -13.2—
Total—157.4—
Projected score—USC 85.3 · USD 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSC -8.0—
1H total73.6—
1H projected scoreUSC 40.8 · USD 32.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: USC 4, San Diego 0, even 1
USCBetterSan Diego
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
USCSmall
G M. Worthy TR16.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 3 ast Score 72
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
Even
G D. Hill TR14.2 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
USCBig
G D. Stromer TR6.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 29
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
USCBig
F T. McMorris TR7.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 47
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
USCSmall
F A. Munoz TR12.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 56
USCBetterSan Diego
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
USCBig
USD defense189th of 366 · -4.4
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
USCSmall
USD offense127th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
USCBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
USCSmall
Frontcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
USCSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSC betterUSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
San Diego
Guards
M. Worthy35 min · TRD. Hill27 min · TRD. Stromer23 min · TRC. Versher2 minN. Del Bosque1 minB. RomanNew
Forwards
T. McMorris26 min · TRA. Munoz25 min · TRJ. Roberto Tanchyn19 min · TRS. Konneh13 min · TRA. Aviles11 minJ. HillNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USCUSD
Scoring
77.8 #97Points per game72.8 #228
1.07 #199Points per possession1.05 #251
72.4 #25Pace (possessions)69.6 #139
Shooting
50.4 #225Effective FG%51.2 #185
31.7 #2993-point %34.6 #141
34.1 #2923-point attempt rate43.7 #96
44.2 #8Free throw rate25.8 #358
Possessions
17.4 #228Turnover rate17.6 #242
32.4 #113Offensive rebound rate28.1 #262
14.9 #92Assists per game15.4 #68
Defense
78.4 #277Points allowed78.8 #290
1.08 #173Points allowed per possession1.13 #286
49.7 #89Opponent effective FG%54.7 #320
30.9 #31Opponent 3-point %32.7 #100
16.4 #198Turnovers forced18.8 #55
67.8 #269Defensive rebound rate65.5 #328
6.2 #217Steals per game7.7 #65
5.5 #8Blocks per game2.6 #294
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.

San Diego

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Seattle U56–58
  • Wvs LMU66–62
  • L@ Portland74–87
  • L@ Oregon St82–92
  • Lvs LMU65–77

A week or more of rest.