Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 10:00 PM ETPauley Pavilion · at UCLA · Conference game

#26UCLAUCLA AP #22

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Oregon and UCLA
ORE	This season	UCLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCLA 77–69 · win probability UCLA 76%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

ORE 1, UCLA 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCLABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ORE 17.6%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: ORE 15.8%, UCLA 18.5%

UCLABig

Three-pointers

ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 42.8% and 35.5% of their shots

UCLASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4

ORESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ORE 35.0, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: ORE 32.0, UCLA 34.4

UCLASmall

ORE offense vs UCLA defense

Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

UCLASmall

Home court

UCLA at home. This season: UCLA 0-0 at home, ORE 0-0 away

UCLASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ORE 23%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: ORE 8, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ORE 32.3%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: ORE 67.7%, UCLA 66.7%

Even

UCLA offense vs ORE defense

Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ORE plays 66.8 a game (287th fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

ORE has played the 25th-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCLA -8.1	—
Total	—	145.0	—
Projected score	—	ORE 68.5 · UCLA 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCLA -4.7	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	ORE 31.6 · UCLA 36.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WWLWL	12-20	38%	4-6	—
UCLA WWWLL	17-19	47%	10-8	—

Venue/role: ORE away; UCLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OUUOU	14-18	44%	12-20
UCLA UOUUU	17-19	47%	24-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
UCLA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs USC	W71–70WU
Dec 12	vs INST	No recent meeting

UCLA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs GONZ	L72–82WO
Dec 13	@ WASH	W77–73LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22

ORE 4–8 UCLAUCLA leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · UCLA has won the last 4 meetings · ORE 3-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 28, 2025-26	UCLA 73 @ ORE 57	ORE +4.5	UCLA W
Dec 6, 2025-26	ORE 63 @ UCLA 74	UCLA -8.5	UCLA W
Jan 30, 2024-25	ORE 52 @ UCLA 78	UCLA -4.5	UCLA W
Dec 8, 2024-25	UCLA 73 @ ORE 71	ORE -3.5	UCLA W
Mar 14, 2023-24	UCLA 66 vs ORE 68	ORE -3.5	UCLA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oregon

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W L L L L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U U O O O O U O U O O O U U O U U U U U U O U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsGONZ	L 82-91	+12.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	vsOMA	W 80-57	-21.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 2	@MD	W 64-54	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 118
Jan 5	@RUTG	L 85-88	-4.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 173
Jan 8	vsOSU	L 62-72	-1.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 134
Jan 13	@NEB	L 55-90	+10.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	vsMICH	L 71-81	+18.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 20	vsMSU	L 52-68	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 25	@WASH	L 57-72	+7.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsUCLA	L 57-73	+4.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Feb 1	vsIOWA	L 66-84	+9.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 7	@PUR	L 64-68	+19.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 9	@IU	L 74-92	+10.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 14	vsPSU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 17	vsMINN	L 44-61	-3.5	L −20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	@USC	W 71-70	+5.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 25	vsWIS	W 85-71	+5.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@NU	L 62-63	+3.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 3	@ILL	L 54-80	+17.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsWASH	W 85-79	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 10	vsMD	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+3.5

OMA

W 80-57

+1.5

W 64-54

+8.5

RUTG

L 85-88

−7.5

OSU

L 62-72

−11.5

NEB

L 55-90

−24.5

MICH

L 71-81

+8.5

MSU

L 52-68

−5.5

WASH

L 57-72

−7.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−11.5

IOWA

L 66-84

−8.5

PUR

L 64-68

+15.5

L 74-92

−7.5

PSU

W 83-72

+4.5

MINN

L 44-61

−20.5

USC

W 71-70

+6.5

WIS

W 85-71

+19.5

L 62-63

+2.5

ILL

L 54-80

−8.5

WASH

W 85-79

+7.5

L 60-70

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+17.5

OMA

W 80-57

−14.5

W 64-54

−28.5

RUTG

L 85-88

+33.5

OSU

L 62-72

−18.5

NEB

L 55-90

−1.5

MICH

L 71-81

−5.5

MSU

L 52-68

−19.5

WASH

L 57-72

−14.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−6.5

IOWA

L 66-84

+16.5

PUR

L 64-68

−12.5

L 74-92

+22.5

PSU

W 83-72

+9.5

MINN

L 44-61

−31.5

USC

W 71-70

−8.5

WIS

W 85-71

+3.5

L 62-63

−16.5

ILL

L 54-80

−13.5

WASH

W 85-79

+18.5

L 60-70

−9.5

over 14under 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCLA

36 games played

Straight up

24-12

67% wins

Against the spread

17-19

47% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1267%

W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1947%

L L L L W W L L W W W L W L L L W L W L W L W L L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O U U U U O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O O O U O O U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsEWU	W 80-74	-29.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsPEPP	W 74-63	-29.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsWGA	W 83-62	-30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsARIZ	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 18	vsSAC	W 79-48	-27.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsPRES	W 86-46	-25.5	W +14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 25	vsCAL	L 72-80	-7.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 3	@WASH	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	vsORE	W 74-63	-8.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsGONZ	L 72-82	+10.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsASU	W 90-77	-9.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 19	vsCP	W 108-87	-24.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 23	vsUCR	W 97-65	-24.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 3	@IOWA	L 61-74	+6.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@WIS	L 72-80	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 152
Jan 10	vsMD	W 67-55	-13.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 122
Jan 14	@PSU	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	@OSU	L 74-86	+4.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 20	vsPUR	W 69-67	+5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsNU	W 71-64	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 28	@ORE	W 73-57	-4.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Jan 31	vsIU	L 97-98	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	vsRUTG	W 98-66	-13.5	W +18.5	142.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsWASH	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 14	@MICH	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Feb 17	@MSU	L 59-82	+8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsILL	W 95-94	+6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 24	vsUSC	W 81-62	-6.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 143
Feb 28	@MINN	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 3	vsNEB	W 72-52	-1.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 7	@USC	W 89-68	-4.5	W +16.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsRUTG	W 72-59	-10.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 13	vsMSU	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 14	vsPUR	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 20	vsUCF	W 75-71	-5.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 22	vsCONN	L 57-73	+5.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

−23.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−18.5

WGA

W 83-62

−9.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−2.5

SAC

W 79-48

+3.5

PRES

W 86-46

+14.5

CAL

L 72-80

−15.5

WASH

W 82-80

−0.5

ORE

W 74-63

+2.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+0.5

ASU

W 90-77

+3.5

W 108-87

−3.5

UCR

W 97-65

+7.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−6.5

WIS

L 72-80

−4.5

W 67-55

−1.5

PSU

W 71-60

+6.5

OSU

L 74-86

−7.5

PUR

W 69-67

+7.5

W 71-64

−0.5

ORE

W 73-57

+11.5

L 97-98

−4.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+18.5

WASH

W 77-73

−0.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

−14.5

ILL

W 95-94

+7.5

USC

W 81-62

+12.5

MINN

L 73-78

−6.5

NEB

W 72-52

+18.5

USC

W 89-68

+16.5

RUTG

W 72-59

+2.5

MSU

W 88-84

+9.5

PUR

L 66-73

+0.5

UCF

W 75-71

−1.5

CONN

L 57-73

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 19avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

+4.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−15.5

WGA

W 83-62

−1.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−19.5

SAC

W 79-48

−19.5

PRES

W 86-46

+0.5

CAL

L 72-80

+8.5

WASH

W 82-80

+20.5

ORE

W 74-63

−9.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+6.5

ASU

W 90-77

+24.5

W 108-87

+33.5

UCR

W 97-65

+13.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−5.5

WIS

L 72-80

−0.5

W 67-55

−25.5

PSU

W 71-60

−17.5

OSU

L 74-86

+13.5

PUR

W 69-67

−11.5

W 71-64

−8.5

ORE

W 73-57

−6.5

L 97-98

+50.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+21.5

WASH

W 77-73

+5.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

+1.5

ILL

W 95-94

+42.5

USC

W 81-62

−7.5

MINN

L 73-78

+14.5

NEB

W 72-52

−20.5

USC

W 89-68

+5.5

RUTG

W 72-59

−10.5

MSU

W 88-84

+30.5

PUR

L 66-73

−4.5

UCF

W 75-71

−5.5

CONN

L 57-73

−5.5

over 17under 19avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Oregon 1, UCLA 1, even 3

OregonBetterUCLA

G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 88

ORESmall

G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70

G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 78

UCLASmall

G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93

F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 77

Even

F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88

F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

Even

F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 67

Even

C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

OregonBetterUCLA

ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8

Even

UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4

ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0

Even

UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players

UCLASmall

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench+1.8 · 5 players

ORESmall

Bench+0.2 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestORE betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Oregon

Guards

F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew

Forwards

A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min

UCLA

Guards

J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew

Forwards

E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew

Centers

X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ORE70.8 #267

UCLA77.0 #115

Points per possession

ORE1.06 #235

UCLA1.16 #48

Pace (possessions)

ORE66.8 #287

UCLA66.5 #297

Shooting

Effective FG%

ORE49.5 #271

UCLA53.4 #85

3-point %

ORE32.0 #277

UCLA37.9 #19

3-point attempt rate

ORE42.8 #121

UCLA35.5 #259

Free throw rate

ORE35.0 #181

UCLA33.1 #237

Possessions

Turnover rate

ORE17.6 #244

UCLA13.4 #14

Offensive rebound rate

ORE32.3 #114

UCLA31.1 #162

Assists per game

ORE14.3 #126

UCLA16.1 #45

Defense

Points allowed

ORE73.9 #155

UCLA71.1 #75

Points allowed per possession

ORE1.11 #249

UCLA1.07 #129

Opponent effective FG%

ORE50.9 #148

UCLA50.4 #120

Opponent 3-point %

ORE33.4 #144

UCLA32.0 #64

Turnovers forced

ORE15.8 #231

UCLA18.5 #76

Defensive rebound rate

ORE67.7 #271

UCLA66.7 #304

Steals per game

ORE6.1 #231

UCLA6.7 #156

Blocks per game

ORE3.9 #79

UCLA3.0 #218

ORE		UCLA
Scoring
70.8 #267	Points per game	77.0 #115
1.06 #235	Points per possession	1.16 #48
66.8 #287	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #297
Shooting
49.5 #271	Effective FG%	53.4 #85
32.0 #277	3-point %	37.9 #19
42.8 #121	3-point attempt rate	35.5 #259
35.0 #181	Free throw rate	33.1 #237
Possessions
17.6 #244	Turnover rate	13.4 #14
32.3 #114	Offensive rebound rate	31.1 #162
14.3 #126	Assists per game	16.1 #45
Defense
73.9 #155	Points allowed	71.1 #75
1.11 #249	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #129
50.9 #148	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #120
33.4 #144	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #64
15.8 #231	Turnovers forced	18.5 #76
67.7 #271	Defensive rebound rate	66.7 #304
6.1 #231	Steals per game	6.7 #156
3.9 #79	Blocks per game	3.0 #218

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Oregon

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Maryland60–70
Wvs Washington85–79
L@ Illinois54–80
L@ Northwestern62–63
Wvs Wisconsin85–71

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn57–73
Wvs UCF75–71
Lvs Purdue66–73
Wvs Michigan St88–84
Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.

Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oregon

UCLA

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Oregon

UCLA