USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 4:00 PM ETMatthew Knight Arena · at Oregon · Conference game

#36USCUSC AP #21

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: USC and Oregon
USC	This season	ORE
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 78–77 · win probability USC 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USC has more of the edges

USC 4, ORE 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: USC plays 72.4 a game (25th fastest), ORE 66.8 (287th). Faster games mean more points

USCSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USC 64%, ORE 23%. Transfers in: USC 6, ORE 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

USCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: USC 44.2, ORE 35.0. Allowed: USC 33.4, ORE 32.0

USCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: USC 50.4 and allows 49.7; ORE 49.5 and allows 50.9

ORESmall

Home court

ORE at home. This season: ORE 0-0 at home, USC 0-0 away

USCSmall

Three-pointers

USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%; ORE hits 32.0% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 34.1% and 42.8% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USC 17.4%, ORE 17.6%. Forced: USC 16.4%, ORE 15.8%

Context

Schedule so far

USC has played the 42nd-hardest schedule, ORE the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

USC offense vs ORE defense

Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 39th, on the model’s ratings

Even

ORE offense vs USC defense

Offense 66th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USC 32.4%, ORE 32.3%. Defensive: USC 67.8%, ORE 67.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	USC -0.7	—
Total	—	154.4	—
Projected score	—	USC 77.6 · ORE 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USC -0.6	—
1H total	72.2	—
1H projected score	USC 36.4 · ORE 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLLL	13-18	42%	5-6	—
ORE WWLWL	12-20	38%	7-10	—

Venue/role: USC away; ORE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UUOOO	17-14	55%	17-14
ORE OUUOU	14-18	44%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
ORE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

USC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ USD	W94–81LO
Dec 13	vs TTU	No recent meeting

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs INST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

USC 2–7 OREORE leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · USC 2-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2025-26	ORE 71 @ USC 70	USC -5.5	ORE W
Dec 2, 2025-26	USC 82 @ ORE 77	ORE +2.5	USC W
Mar 1, 2024-25	USC 61 @ ORE 82	ORE -7.5	ORE W
Dec 4, 2024-25	ORE 68 @ USC 60	USC +6.5	ORE W
Feb 1, 2023-24	ORE 78 @ USC 69	USC +2.5	ORE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

USC

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W W W W W W W W L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

W W W L L L W W L L L W L L W W W L W W L W L W L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1455%

U O U O U O O O O O U O U U U O U U U O O O U O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCP	W 94-64	-24.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 9	vsMAN	W 114-83	-28.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 14	vsILST	W 87-67	-15.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 20	vsTROY	W 107-106	-18.5	L −17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsBOIS	W 70-67	-3.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsHALL	W 83-81	-6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsASU	W 88-75	-4.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Dec 2	@ORE	W 82-77	-2.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	vsWASH	L 76-84	-4.5	L −12.5	154.5	O 160
Dec 9	@USD	W 94-81	-14.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 14	vsWSU	W 68-61	-12.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 129
Dec 17	vsUTSA	W 97-70	-25.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 167
Jan 2	@MICH	L 66-96	+22.5	L −7.5	173.5	U 162
Jan 5	@MSU	L 51-80	+11.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 131
Jan 9	@MINN	W 70-69	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 13	vsMD	W 88-71	-9.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 159
Jan 17	vsPUR	L 64-69	+9.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 133
Jan 21	vsNU	L 68-74	-6.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 25	@WIS	W 73-71	+7.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 144
Jan 28	@IOWA	L 72-73	+9.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 145
Jan 31	vsRUTG	W 78-75	-11.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 3	vsIU	W 81-75	+1.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 8	@PSU	W 77-75	-3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@OSU	L 82-89	+7.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 171
Feb 18	vsILL	L 65-101	+8.5	L −27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	vsORE	L 70-71	-5.5	L −6.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 24	@UCLA	L 62-81	+6.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 143
Feb 28	vsNEB	L 67-82	+5.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 4	@WASH	L 72-91	+5.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 163
Mar 7	vsUCLA	L 68-89	+4.5	L −16.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 11	vsWASH	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-64

+5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+2.5

ILST

W 87-67

+4.5

TROY

W 107-106

−17.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−0.5

HALL

W 83-81

−4.5

ASU

W 88-75

+8.5

ORE

W 82-77

+2.5

WASH

L 76-84

−12.5

USD

W 94-81

−1.5

WSU

W 68-61

−5.5

UTSA

W 97-70

+1.5

MICH

L 66-96

−7.5

MSU

L 51-80

−17.5

MINN

W 70-69

+4.5

W 88-71

+7.5

PUR

L 64-69

+4.5

L 68-74

−12.5

WIS

W 73-71

+9.5

IOWA

L 72-73

+8.5

RUTG

W 78-75

−8.5

W 81-75

+7.5

PSU

W 77-75

−1.5

OSU

L 82-89

+0.5

ILL

L 65-101

−27.5

ORE

L 70-71

−6.5

UCLA

L 62-81

−12.5

NEB

L 67-82

−9.5

WASH

L 72-91

−13.5

UCLA

L 68-89

−16.5

WASH

L 79-83

−0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-64

−5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+41.5

ILST

W 87-67

−1.5

TROY

W 107-106

+53.5

BOIS

W 70-67

−18.5

HALL

W 83-81

+18.5

ASU

W 88-75

+1.5

ORE

W 82-77

+4.5

WASH

L 76-84

+5.5

USD

W 94-81

+16.5

WSU

W 68-61

−27.5

UTSA

W 97-70

+9.5

MICH

L 66-96

−11.5

MSU

L 51-80

−20.5

MINN

W 70-69

−8.5

W 88-71

+8.5

PUR

L 64-69

−22.5

L 68-74

−7.5

WIS

W 73-71

−14.5

IOWA

L 72-73

+3.5

RUTG

W 78-75

+6.5

W 81-75

+2.5

PSU

W 77-75

−5.5

OSU

L 82-89

+18.5

ILL

L 65-101

+14.5

ORE

L 70-71

−8.5

UCLA

L 62-81

−7.5

NEB

L 67-82

−0.5

WASH

L 72-91

+12.5

UCLA

L 68-89

+5.5

WASH

L 79-83

+7.5

over 17under 14avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W L L L L L W W L W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

U U O O O O U O U O O O U U O U U U U U U O U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsGONZ	L 82-91	+12.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 173
Dec 28	vsOMA	W 80-57	-21.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 2	@MD	W 64-54	-1.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 118
Jan 5	@RUTG	L 85-88	-4.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 173
Jan 8	vsOSU	L 62-72	-1.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 134
Jan 13	@NEB	L 55-90	+10.5	L −24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	vsMICH	L 71-81	+18.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 20	vsMSU	L 52-68	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 120
Jan 25	@WASH	L 57-72	+7.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 28	vsUCLA	L 57-73	+4.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Feb 1	vsIOWA	L 66-84	+9.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 150
Feb 7	@PUR	L 64-68	+19.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 132
Feb 9	@IU	L 74-92	+10.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 14	vsPSU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 17	vsMINN	L 44-61	-3.5	L −20.5	136.5	U 105
Feb 21	@USC	W 71-70	+5.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 141
Feb 25	vsWIS	W 85-71	+5.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 156
Feb 28	@NU	L 62-63	+3.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 125
Mar 3	@ILL	L 54-80	+17.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsWASH	W 85-79	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 10	vsMD	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+3.5

OMA

W 80-57

+1.5

W 64-54

+8.5

RUTG

L 85-88

−7.5

OSU

L 62-72

−11.5

NEB

L 55-90

−24.5

MICH

L 71-81

+8.5

MSU

L 52-68

−5.5

WASH

L 57-72

−7.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−11.5

IOWA

L 66-84

−8.5

PUR

L 64-68

+15.5

L 74-92

−7.5

PSU

W 83-72

+4.5

MINN

L 44-61

−20.5

USC

W 71-70

+6.5

WIS

W 85-71

+19.5

L 62-63

+2.5

ILL

L 54-80

−8.5

WASH

W 85-79

+7.5

L 60-70

−14.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

GONZ

L 82-91

+17.5

OMA

W 80-57

−14.5

W 64-54

−28.5

RUTG

L 85-88

+33.5

OSU

L 62-72

−18.5

NEB

L 55-90

−1.5

MICH

L 71-81

−5.5

MSU

L 52-68

−19.5

WASH

L 57-72

−14.5

UCLA

L 57-73

−6.5

IOWA

L 66-84

+16.5

PUR

L 64-68

−12.5

L 74-92

+22.5

PSU

W 83-72

+9.5

MINN

L 44-61

−31.5

USC

W 71-70

−8.5

WIS

W 85-71

+3.5

L 62-63

−16.5

ILL

L 54-80

−13.5

WASH

W 85-79

+18.5

L 60-70

−9.5

over 14under 18avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: USC 2, Oregon 0, even 3

USCBetterOregon

G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96

Even

G F. Payne TR15.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.7 ast Score 88

G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86

Even

G T. Riley TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 78

G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97

USCSmall

F A. Meadow TR12 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 77

G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88

USCSmall

F S. Stewart6.5 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64

F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77

Even

F T. Bol Bowen TR6.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 67

USCBetterOregon

USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0

Even

ORE defense39th of 366 · +3.0

USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4

Even

ORE offense66th of 366 · +1.8

Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players

USCBig

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt+2.6 · 3 players

Bench+2.9 · 5 players

USCSmall

Bench+1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUSC betterORE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

USC

Guards

J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR

Forwards

J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew

Centers

E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew

Oregon

Guards

F. Payne35 min · TRT. Riley32 min · TRJ. Easter18 min · TRW. Lin18 minJ. Johnson12 min · TRR. GonzalesNew

Forwards

A. Meadow30 min · TRS. Stewart23 minT. Bol Bowen19 min · TRP. Compton14 min · TRD. Aristode13 min · TRL. Johnson6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USC77.8 #97

ORE70.8 #267

Points per possession

USC1.07 #199

ORE1.06 #235

Pace (possessions)

USC72.4 #25

ORE66.8 #287

Shooting

Effective FG%

USC50.4 #225

ORE49.5 #271

3-point %

USC31.7 #299

ORE32.0 #277

3-point attempt rate

USC34.1 #292

ORE42.8 #121

Free throw rate

USC44.2 #8

ORE35.0 #181

Possessions

Turnover rate

USC17.4 #228

ORE17.6 #244

Offensive rebound rate

USC32.4 #113

ORE32.3 #114

Assists per game

USC14.9 #92

ORE14.3 #126

Defense

Points allowed

USC78.4 #277

ORE73.9 #155

Points allowed per possession

USC1.08 #173

ORE1.11 #249

Opponent effective FG%

USC49.7 #89

ORE50.9 #148

Opponent 3-point %

USC30.9 #31

ORE33.4 #144

Turnovers forced

USC16.4 #198

ORE15.8 #231

Defensive rebound rate

USC67.8 #269

ORE67.7 #271

Steals per game

USC6.2 #217

ORE6.1 #231

Blocks per game

USC5.5 #8

ORE3.9 #79

USC		ORE
Scoring
77.8 #97	Points per game	70.8 #267
1.07 #199	Points per possession	1.06 #235
72.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	66.8 #287
Shooting
50.4 #225	Effective FG%	49.5 #271
31.7 #299	3-point %	32.0 #277
34.1 #292	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #121
44.2 #8	Free throw rate	35.0 #181
Possessions
17.4 #228	Turnover rate	17.6 #244
32.4 #113	Offensive rebound rate	32.3 #114
14.9 #92	Assists per game	14.3 #126
Defense
78.4 #277	Points allowed	73.9 #155
1.08 #173	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #249
49.7 #89	Opponent effective FG%	50.9 #148
30.9 #31	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #144
16.4 #198	Turnovers forced	15.8 #231
67.8 #269	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #271
6.2 #217	Steals per game	6.1 #231
5.5 #8	Blocks per game	3.9 #79

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Washington79–83
Lvs UCLA68–89
L@ Washington72–91
Lvs Nebraska67–82
L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.

Oregon

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 5-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Maryland60–70
Wvs Washington85–79
L@ Illinois54–80
L@ Northwestern62–63
Wvs Wisconsin85–71

A week or more of rest.

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks

What could decide it: USC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

USC

Oregon

USC has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

USC

Oregon