1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. NU vs BYU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Northwestern Wildcats vs BYU Cougars

Delta Center · Neutral site
#59NUNorthwestern
vs
#24BYUBYU AP #25
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NUThis seasonBYU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BYU 80–74 · win probability BYU 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BYU has more of the edges

NU 1, BYU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BYUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NU 28.1%, BYU 34.3%. Defensive: NU 65.3%, BYU 70.3%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NU plays 65.5 a game (328th fastest), BYU 70.6 (90th). Faster games mean more points
NUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NU 13.1%, BYU 15.2%. Forced: NU 17.5%, BYU 16.4%
BYUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NU 33.9, BYU 34.4. Allowed: NU 34.8, BYU 28.9
BYUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NU 51.7 and allows 51.0; BYU 54.4 and allows 51.2
Even
NU offense vs BYU defense
Offense 67th of 366 against a defense 33rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NU has played the 36th-hardest schedule, BYU the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NU 24%, BYU 35%. Transfers in: NU 8, BYU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
NU hits 33.0% and allows 33.4%; BYU hits 34.5% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 34.0% and 39.8% of their shots
Even
BYU offense vs NU defense
Offense 24th of 366 against a defense 42nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BYU -5.7—
Total—153.8—
Projected score—NU 74.1 · BYU 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBYU -3.2—
1H total71.9—
1H projected scoreNU 34.3 · BYU 37.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Northwestern 1, BYU 1, even 3
NorthwesternBetterBYU
G L. Pratt TR17 pts · 1.7 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G R. Wright18.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.6 ast Score 97
F J. Karasinski TR21.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 97
Even
G C. Chandler TR9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 84
F C. Smith TR11.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
BYUBig
F J. Kohler TR12.5 pts · 8.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 96
F L. McEldon TR11.7 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
NUBig
F J. Wahlin TR5.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 44
F O. Federiko TR8.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
No call
F D. Baker7.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
NorthwesternBetterBYU
NU offense67th of 366 · +1.8
Even
BYU defense33rd of 366 · +3.5
NU defense42nd of 366 · +2.7
Even
BYU offense24th of 366 · +7.2
Backcourt+0.9 · 1 player
BYUBig
Backcourt+6.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt+7.1 · 4 players
NUSmall
Frontcourt+4.5 · 3 players
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
BYUSmall
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNU betterBYU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Northwestern
Guards
L. Pratt33 min · TRA. Ciaravino22 minJ. West22 minA. Kostic12 min · TRD. Williams9 min · TRP. Gill4 min
Forwards
J. Karasinski30 min · TRC. Smith30 min · TRL. McEldon26 min · TRO. Federiko23 min · TRR. Soulis20 min · TRE. EschmeyerNew
Centers
S. GhaiNew
BYU
Guards
R. Wright35 minC. Chandler27 min · TRN. PickensNew
Forwards
J. Kohler28 min · TRJ. Wahlin21 min · TRD. Baker20 minT. Betsey18 min · TRK. Mboup16 minB. KozlowskiNew
Centers
A. Stewart1 min · TRP. OstojicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NUBYU
Scoring
73.2 #220Points per game83.5 #22
1.12 #100Points per possession1.18 #32
65.5 #328Pace (possessions)70.6 #90
Shooting
51.7 #159Effective FG%54.4 #54
33.0 #2323-point %34.5 #145
34.0 #2963-point attempt rate39.8 #177
33.9 #213Free throw rate34.4 #198
Possessions
13.1 #6Turnover rate15.2 #78
28.1 #260Offensive rebound rate34.3 #61
17.2 #18Assists per game13.3 #192
Defense
72.0 #106Points allowed75.4 #202
1.09 #210Points allowed per possession1.07 #133
51.0 #157Opponent effective FG%51.2 #174
33.4 #145Opponent 3-point %35.3 #269
17.5 #120Turnovers forced16.4 #194
65.3 #332Defensive rebound rate70.3 #145
5.8 #256Steals per game7.2 #109
3.6 #131Blocks per game4.4 #40
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Northwestern

15-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-16 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue68–81
  • Wvs Indiana74–61
  • Wvs Penn State76–66
  • L@ Minnesota66–67
  • Lvs Purdue66–70

A week or more of rest.

BYU

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas71–79
  • Lvs Houston66–73
  • Wvs West Virginia68–48
  • Wvs Kansas St105–91
  • Wvs Texas Tech82–76

A week or more of rest.