Honda Center · Neutral site
#17GONZGonzaga AP #15
vs
#26UCLAUCLA AP #22
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Gonzaga and UCLA
GONZThis seasonUCLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GONZ 78–72 · win probability GONZ 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.2
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

GONZ 2, UCLA 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GONZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GONZ 34.8%, UCLA 31.1%. Defensive: GONZ 74.3%, UCLA 66.7%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: GONZ plays 70.4 a game (98th fastest), UCLA 66.5 (297th). Faster games mean more points
GONZSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GONZ 55.6 and allows 46.3; UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4
UCLASmall
Three-pointers
GONZ hits 33.3% and allows 30.6%; UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 30.8% and 35.5% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
GONZ has played the 84th-hardest schedule, UCLA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCLASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GONZ 21%, UCLA 50%. Transfers in: GONZ 5, UCLA 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UCLA offense vs GONZ defense
Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GONZ 13.7%, UCLA 13.4%. Forced: GONZ 19.9%, UCLA 18.5%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GONZ 31.0, UCLA 33.1. Allowed: GONZ 30.9, UCLA 34.4
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
GONZ offense vs UCLA defense
Offense 14th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GONZ -6.0—
Total—150.2—
Projected score—GONZ 78.1 · UCLA 72.1

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadGONZ -3.7—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreGONZ 37 · UCLA 33.3—

Gonzaga has the better starters

Position by position: Gonzaga 2, UCLA 0, even 3
GonzagaBetterUCLA
G J. Bennett TR15.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 85
GONZSmall
G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70
G X. Lee TR11.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.2 ast Score 94
Even
G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
F C. Wiggins TR13.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 81
Even
F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88
F B. Huff17.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 99
GONZSmall
F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71
C M. Diop TR13.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 86
Even
C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
GonzagaBetterUCLA
GONZ offense14th of 366 · +9.4
Even
UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4
GONZ defense21st of 366 · +5.3
Even
UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8
Backcourt+5.5 · 2 players
GONZSmall
Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
GONZBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench+2.8 · 2 players
GONZSmall
Bench+0.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestGONZ betterUCLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Gonzaga
Guards
J. Bennett35 min · TRX. Lee27 min · TRD. Fogle17 minI. Harwell14 min · TRN. De SousaNewA. MetzNew
Forwards
C. Wiggins28 min · TRB. Huff26 minI. AlmansaNewP. JeffersonNewS. FunchesNewL. FosterNew
Centers
M. Diop30 min · TR
UCLA
Guards
J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew
Forwards
E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew
Centers
X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GONZUCLA
Scoring
84.3 #17Points per game77.0 #115
1.20 #13Points per possession1.16 #48
70.4 #98Pace (possessions)66.5 #297
Shooting
55.6 #25Effective FG%53.4 #85
33.3 #2123-point %37.9 #19
30.8 #3423-point attempt rate35.5 #259
31.0 #282Free throw rate33.1 #237
Possessions
13.7 #17Turnover rate13.4 #14
34.8 #52Offensive rebound rate31.1 #162
18.4 #7Assists per game16.1 #45
Defense
66.2 #15Points allowed71.1 #75
0.94 #1Points allowed per possession1.07 #129
46.3 #15Opponent effective FG%50.4 #120
30.6 #23Opponent 3-point %32.0 #64
19.9 #25Turnovers forced18.5 #76
74.3 #16Defensive rebound rate66.7 #304
8.4 #23Steals per game6.7 #156
3.7 #116Blocks per game3.0 #218

Gonzaga

31-4 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas68–74
  • Wvs Kennesaw St73–64
  • Wvs Santa Clara79–68
  • Wvs Oregon St65–56
  • L@ Saint Mary's59–70

A week or more of rest.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn57–73
  • Wvs UCF75–71
  • Lvs Purdue66–73
  • Wvs Michigan St88–84
  • Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.