1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. CSU @ COLO
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes

CU Events Center · at Colorado
#87CSUColorado St
@
#65COLOColorado
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CSUThis seasonCOLO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLO 78–72 · win probability COLO 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

CSU 3, COLO 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CSU plays 64.4 a game (355th fastest), COLO 71.0 (76th). Faster games mean more points
COLOBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CSU 18.5%, COLO 14.7%. Forced: CSU 15.4%, COLO 15.2%
CSUSmall
Three-pointers
CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%; COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 49.1% and 35.2% of their shots
CSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CSU 39.4, COLO 36.6. Allowed: CSU 34.2, COLO 36.6
COLOSmall
Home court
COLO at home. This season: COLO 0-0 at home, CSU 0-0 away
CSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CSU 67%, COLO 40%. Transfers in: CSU 1, COLO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9; COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6
Context
Schedule so far
CSU has played the 96th-hardest schedule, COLO the 58th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CSU 30.0%, COLO 29.0%. Defensive: CSU 70.8%, COLO 70.4%
Even
CSU offense vs COLO defense
Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings
Even
COLO offense vs CSU defense
Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COLO -6.0—
Total—150.8—
Projected score—CSU 72.4 · COLO 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOLO -3.4—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreCSU 33.5 · COLO 37—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado St has the better starters

Position by position: Colorado St 2, Colorado 1, even 2
Colorado StBetterColorado
G J. Menard TR12.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 79
Even
G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93
G J. Pascarelli10.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 64
COLOSmall
F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96
G J. Butler9.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67
CSUSmall
F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
F K. Jorgensen11.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 87
No call
F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
F C. Booth10.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
CSUSmall
C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59
Colorado StBetterColorado
CSU offense103rd of 366 · -1.2
Even
COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3
CSU defense61st of 366 · +1.2
Even
COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2
Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players
COLOSmall
Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+5.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
CSUSmall
Bench-2.7 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCSU betterCOLO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Colorado St
Guards
J. Menard29 min · TRJ. Pascarelli27 minJ. Butler26 minJ. McIver12 minR. SawyerNewP. DunsonNew
Forwards
K. Jorgensen26 minC. Booth25 minR. Mbemba18 minC. Dortch2 minA. MillerNewD. TedeschiNew
Centers
J. ClarkNew
Colorado
Guards
B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew
Forwards
J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew
Centers
N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CSUCOLO
Scoring
74.8 #169Points per game80.2 #63
1.16 #44Points per possession1.13 #80
64.4 #355Pace (possessions)71.0 #76
Shooting
57.5 #12Effective FG%52.9 #108
38.6 #93-point %35.1 #104
49.1 #193-point attempt rate35.2 #267
39.4 #69Free throw rate36.6 #139
Possessions
18.5 #298Turnover rate14.7 #46
30.0 #198Offensive rebound rate29.0 #235
15.6 #62Assists per game15.4 #67
Defense
71.6 #95Points allowed79.8 #313
1.11 #241Points allowed per possession1.12 #272
52.9 #263Opponent effective FG%52.6 #243
34.2 #196Opponent 3-point %36.3 #319
15.4 #255Turnovers forced15.2 #267
70.8 #123Defensive rebound rate70.4 #144
5.2 #320Steals per game6.3 #196
2.1 #338Blocks per game3.3 #170
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
  • Lvs San Diego St62–71
  • Wvs Fresno St67–63
  • Lvs Boise St67–78
  • W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma86–90
  • Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
  • Lvs Arizona79–89
  • W@ Utah92–78
  • L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.