UC San Diego Tritons at UC Irvine Anteaters: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 10:00 PM ETBren Events Center · at UC Irvine · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UC San Diego and UC Irvine
UCSD	This season	UCI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCI 71–70 · win probability UCI 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

UCSD 3, UCI 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCSD 31.2, UCI 36.0. Allowed: UCSD 29.3, UCI 26.7

UCSDSmall

UCI offense vs UCSD defense

Offense 187th of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings

UCSDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4; UCI 49.5 and allows 45.9

UCISmall

Home court

UCI at home. This season: UCI 0-0 at home, UCSD 0-0 away

UCSDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCSD 68%, UCI 44%. Transfers in: UCSD 5, UCI 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: UCSD plays 69.7 a game (130th fastest), UCI 71.5 (51st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%; UCI hits 33.6% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 42.3% and 28.0% of their shots

Even

UCSD offense vs UCI defense

Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 126th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCSD 26.1%, UCI 30.9%. Defensive: UCSD 73.0%, UCI 68.8%

Context

Schedule so far

UCSD has played the 205th-hardest schedule, UCI the 215th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCSD 16.5%, UCI 17.8%. Forced: UCSD 16.8%, UCI 18.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCI -1.1	—
Total	—	141.5	—
Projected score	—	UCSD 70.2 · UCI 71.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCI -0.5	—
1H total	66.2	—
1H projected score	UCSD 32.9 · UCI 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCSD WLWLL	16-16	50%	7-6	—
UCI WWWLL	17-16	52%	6-9	—

Venue/role: UCSD away; UCI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCSD UUUUU	12-20	38%	21-11
UCI OOOUU	12-21	36%	21-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCSD	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
UCI	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UC San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ STMN	No recent meeting

UC Irvine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	vs UNI	L69–70LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UCSD 5–5 UCISeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · UCSD 5-4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2025-26	UCSD 71 @ UCI 69	UCI -3.5	UCSD W
Jan 24, 2025-26	UCI 61 @ UCSD 59	UCSD -2.5	UCI W
Mar 15, 2024-25	UCI 61 vs UCSD 75	UCSD -5.5	UCSD W
Feb 8, 2024-25	UCSD 85 @ UCI 67	UCI +0.5	UCSD W
Jan 11, 2024-25	UCI 60 @ UCSD 52	UCSD -5.5	UCI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC San Diego

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W W W W W L W W W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsHCU	W 78-60	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 12	@FRES	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsIDHO	W 75-67	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 24	vsTEM	W 91-76	+1.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 167
Nov 25	vsBRAD	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsTOW	W 87-73	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 2	@NEV	L 70-76	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LBSU	W 80-74	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 13	vsTULN	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 16	@LMU	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUSD	L 80-82	-12.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 1	@CP	L 65-67	-8.5	L −10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	vsHAW	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 8	vsCSUF	L 71-88	-13.5	L −30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	@UCR	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	vsCSUN	L 79-84	-7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	@CSUB	W 83-62	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@UCD	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCI	L 59-61	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsUCSB	L 48-62	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	@CSUN	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	vsLBSU	W 77-74	-10.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 7	@HAW	L 67-72	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsUCD	W 68-51	-5.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsUCR	W 72-66	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 21	@UCI	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	vsCSUB	W 84-72	-14.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsCP	W 80-64	-7.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@CSUF	L 71-75	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCSB	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsCP	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 141
Mar 12	vsCSUN	L 70-80	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

+10.5

FRES

W 78-73

+6.5

IDHO

W 75-67

+2.5

TEM

W 91-76

+16.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+11.5

TOW

W 87-73

+12.5

NEV

L 70-76

−0.5

LBSU

W 80-74

−2.5

TULN

W 93-67

+20.5

LMU

W 67-57

+8.5

USD

L 80-82

−14.5

L 65-67

−10.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−30.5

UCR

W 69-66

−7.5

CSUN

L 79-84

−12.5

CSUB

W 83-62

+12.5

UCD

W 80-74

+4.5

UCI

L 59-61

−4.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−18.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−18.5

LBSU

W 77-74

−7.5

HAW

L 67-72

+1.5

UCD

W 68-51

+11.5

UCR

W 72-66

−5.5

UCI

W 71-69

+5.5

CSUB

W 84-72

−2.5

W 80-64

+8.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−6.5

UCSB

W 64-63

+3.5

W 72-69

−1.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

−3.5

FRES

W 78-73

+2.5

IDHO

W 75-67

−6.5

TEM

W 91-76

+18.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+18.5

TOW

W 87-73

+21.5

NEV

L 70-76

−3.5

LBSU

W 80-74

+8.5

TULN

W 93-67

+10.5

LMU

W 67-57

−26.5

USD

L 80-82

+5.5

L 65-67

−42.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−7.5

UCR

W 69-66

−14.5

CSUN

L 79-84

+3.5

CSUB

W 83-62

−2.5

UCD

W 80-74

+1.5

UCI

L 59-61

−26.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−35.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−15.5

LBSU

W 77-74

+6.5

HAW

L 67-72

−10.5

UCD

W 68-51

−31.5

UCR

W 72-66

−9.5

UCI

W 71-69

−3.5

CSUB

W 84-72

+7.5

W 80-64

−20.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−10.5

UCSB

W 64-63

−14.5

W 72-69

−21.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−3.5

over 12under 20avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Irvine

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

L W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L L W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1652%

L L L L L W W L W L W W L W L W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCBU	L 61-69	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsWEB	W 79-70	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	@UVU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 22	vsUNI	L 69-70	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsNMSU	L 45-57	-2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 102
Nov 26	vsSDST	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 116
Nov 30	@SJSU	W 72-63	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 4	vsUCR	W 73-60	-13.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 6	vsCSUN	W 85-71	-7.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 19	vsBEL	L 58-84	-1.5	L −27.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsNDSU	W 74-73	+1.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	vsNORF	W 89-70	-11.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 1	@CSUB	W 81-77	-11.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@CSUF	W 86-64	-3.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 150
Jan 8	vsLBSU	W 74-64	-10.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	@HAW	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 17	@UCD	L 72-75	-3.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 147
Jan 22	@UCR	W 80-66	-8.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 146
Jan 24	@UCSD	W 61-59	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsHAW	W 87-76	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 163
Feb 5	vsCSUB	W 78-62	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 7	@UCSB	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 163
Feb 12	@CP	L 73-79	-5.5	L −11.5	161.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsCSUF	W 86-65	-7.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 19	@LBSU	W 69-58	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsUCSD	L 69-71	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@CSUN	W 68-67	+1.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsUCSB	W 64-60	-3.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 5	vsCP	W 107-85	-9.5	W +12.5	160.5	O 192
Mar 7	vsUCD	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Mar 13	vsCSUN	W 93-78	-3.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 14	vsHAW	L 64-71	-1.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 135
Mar 17	vsUNLV	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−16.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

−4.5

UNI

L 69-70

−3.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−14.5

SDST

W 64-52

+9.5

SJSU

W 72-63

+5.5

UCR

W 73-60

−0.5

CSUN

W 85-71

+6.5

BEL

L 58-84

−27.5

NDSU

W 74-73

+2.5

NORF

W 89-70

+7.5

CSUB

W 81-77

−7.5

CSUF

W 86-64

+18.5

LBSU

W 74-64

−0.5

HAW

L 66-67

+3.5

UCD

L 72-75

−6.5

UCR

W 80-66

+5.5

UCSD

W 61-59

+4.5

HAW

W 87-76

+9.5

CSUB

W 78-62

−0.5

UCSB

L 79-84

−2.5

L 73-79

−11.5

CSUF

W 86-65

+13.5

LBSU

W 69-58

+5.5

UCSD

L 69-71

−5.5

CSUN

W 68-67

+2.5

UCSB

W 64-60

+0.5

W 107-85

+12.5

UCD

W 79-69

+2.5

CSUN

W 93-78

+11.5

HAW

L 64-71

−8.5

UNLV

L 72-75

−1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−17.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

+1.5

UNI

L 69-70

+0.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−37.5

SDST

W 64-52

−28.5

SJSU

W 72-63

−4.5

UCR

W 73-60

−9.5

CSUN

W 85-71

+3.5

BEL

L 58-84

−8.5

NDSU

W 74-73

+0.5

NORF

W 89-70

+22.5

CSUB

W 81-77

+14.5

CSUF

W 86-64

−10.5

LBSU

W 74-64

−4.5

HAW

L 66-67

−7.5

UCD

L 72-75

−1.5

UCR

W 80-66

+3.5

UCSD

W 61-59

−26.5

HAW

W 87-76

+18.5

CSUB

W 78-62

−4.5

UCSB

L 79-84

+21.5

L 73-79

−9.5

CSUF

W 86-65

−3.5

LBSU

W 69-58

−17.5

UCSD

L 69-71

−3.5

CSUN

W 68-67

−18.5

UCSB

W 64-60

−14.5

W 107-85

+31.5

UCD

W 79-69

+3.5

CSUN

W 93-78

+18.5

HAW

L 64-71

−6.5

UNLV

L 72-75

−6.5

over 12under 21avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: UC San Diego 2, UC Irvine 1, even 2

UC San DiegoBetterUC Irvine

G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52

UCSDBig

G T. Isaac6 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71

UCISmall

G N. Cooper TR11.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 89

G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50

Even

G J. Jester6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 63

G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

Even

F H. Carrington7.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51

UCSDSmall

F E. Chol4.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 28

UC San DiegoBetterUC Irvine

UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4

Even

UCI defense126th of 366 · -2.3

UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3

UCSDSmall

UCI offense187th of 366 · -5.8

Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-0.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

UCISmall

Bench-1.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUCSD betterUCI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UC San Diego

Guards

R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min

Forwards

L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew

Centers

D. Vukicevic7 min

UC Irvine

Guards

T. Isaac27 minN. Cooper25 min · TRJ. Jester16 minB. Egbo4 minL. RedfieldNewT. LeeNew

Forwards

H. Carrington17 minE. Chol17 minM. HodgesNewP. SpeesNewD. BenthoNew

Centers

N. Emeneke8 minO. Rioux2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCSD74.5 #179

UCI74.2 #188

Points per possession

UCSD1.07 #211

UCI1.04 #278

Pace (possessions)

UCSD69.7 #130

UCI71.5 #51

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCSD52.6 #124

UCI49.5 #268

3-point %

UCSD32.8 #241

UCI33.6 #191

3-point attempt rate

UCSD42.3 #131

UCI28.0 #359

Free throw rate

UCSD31.2 #277

UCI36.0 #152

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCSD16.5 #165

UCI17.8 #257

Offensive rebound rate

UCSD26.1 #320

UCI30.9 #166

Assists per game

UCSD14.9 #94

UCI14.8 #103

Defense

Points allowed

UCSD70.5 #63

UCI69.4 #54

Points allowed per possession

UCSD1.01 #35

UCI0.97 #7

Opponent effective FG%

UCSD48.4 #45

UCI45.9 #9

Opponent 3-point %

UCSD31.6 #45

UCI33.7 #167

Turnovers forced

UCSD16.8 #165

UCI18.8 #56

Defensive rebound rate

UCSD73.0 #38

UCI68.8 #213

Steals per game

UCSD7.4 #94

UCI7.8 #51

Blocks per game

UCSD2.6 #299

UCI5.8 #5

UCSD		UCI
Scoring
74.5 #179	Points per game	74.2 #188
1.07 #211	Points per possession	1.04 #278
69.7 #130	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #51
Shooting
52.6 #124	Effective FG%	49.5 #268
32.8 #241	3-point %	33.6 #191
42.3 #131	3-point attempt rate	28.0 #359
31.2 #277	Free throw rate	36.0 #152
Possessions
16.5 #165	Turnover rate	17.8 #257
26.1 #320	Offensive rebound rate	30.9 #166
14.9 #94	Assists per game	14.8 #103
Defense
70.5 #63	Points allowed	69.4 #54
1.01 #35	Points allowed per possession	0.97 #7
48.4 #45	Opponent effective FG%	45.9 #9
31.6 #45	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #167
16.8 #165	Turnovers forced	18.8 #56
73.0 #38	Defensive rebound rate	68.8 #213
7.4 #94	Steals per game	7.8 #51
2.6 #299	Blocks per game	5.8 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
Wvs Cal Poly72–69
W@ Santa Barbara64–63
L@ Fullerton71–75
Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

UC Irvine

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNLV72–75
Lvs Hawai'i64–71
Wvs CSU Northridge93–78
Wvs UC Davis79–69
Wvs Cal Poly107–85

A week or more of rest.

UC San Diego Tritons at UC Irvine Anteaters

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC San Diego

UC Irvine

UC San Diego has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UC San Diego

UC Irvine