UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 13, 8:00 PM ETAlaska Airlines Arena · at Washington · Conference game

#26UCLAUCLA AP #22

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UCLA and Washington
UCLA	This season	WASH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCLA 74–73 · win probability UCLA 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

UCLA 3, WASH 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCLABig

Three-pointers

UCLA hits 37.9% and allows 32.0%; WASH hits 31.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 35.5% and 34.6% of their shots

WASHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCLA 31.1%, WASH 34.6%. Defensive: UCLA 66.7%, WASH 71.5%

UCLABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCLA 13.4%, WASH 15.3%. Forced: UCLA 18.5%, WASH 14.4%

WASHSmall

Home court

WASH at home. This season: WASH 0-0 at home, UCLA 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UCLA plays 66.5 a game (297th fastest), WASH 68.8 (196th). Faster games mean more points

UCLASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCLA 53.4 and allows 50.4; WASH 51.2 and allows 50.1

Even

WASH offense vs UCLA defense

Offense 57th of 366 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCLA 50%, WASH 34%. Transfers in: UCLA 4, WASH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

UCLA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, WASH the 46th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCLA 33.1, WASH 30.1. Allowed: UCLA 34.4, WASH 31.0

Even

UCLA offense vs WASH defense

Offense 47th of 366 against a defense 48th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCLA -1.2	—
Total	—	146.6	—
Projected score	—	UCLA 73.9 · WASH 72.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCLA -0.8	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	UCLA 34.7 · WASH 33.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA WWWLL	17-19	47%	3-7	—
WASH LWLWW	20-13	61%	9-7	—

Venue/role: UCLA away; WASH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UOUUU	17-19	47%	24-12
WASH OOOOO	15-18	45%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
WASH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UCLA

No more games listed yet.

Washington

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UCLA 9–1 WASHUCLA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UCLA has won the last 4 meetings · UCLA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	WASH 73 @ UCLA 77	UCLA -4.5	WASH W
Dec 3, 2025-26	UCLA 82 @ WASH 80	WASH +2.5	WASH W
Jan 24, 2024-25	UCLA 65 @ WASH 60	WASH +5.5	WASH W
Dec 3, 2024-25	WASH 58 @ UCLA 69	UCLA -11.5	WASH W
Feb 29, 2023-24	UCLA 77 @ WASH 94	WASH -3.5	WASH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UCLA

36 games played

Straight up

24-12

67% wins

Against the spread

17-19

47% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1267%

W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1947%

L L L L W W L L W W W L W L L L W L W L W L W L L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O U U U U O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O O O U O O U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsEWU	W 80-74	-29.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsPEPP	W 74-63	-29.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsWGA	W 83-62	-30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsARIZ	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 18	vsSAC	W 79-48	-27.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsPRES	W 86-46	-25.5	W +14.5	131.5	O 132
Nov 25	vsCAL	L 72-80	-7.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 152
Dec 3	@WASH	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	vsORE	W 74-63	-8.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsGONZ	L 72-82	+10.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsASU	W 90-77	-9.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 167
Dec 19	vsCP	W 108-87	-24.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 23	vsUCR	W 97-65	-24.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 3	@IOWA	L 61-74	+6.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 135
Jan 6	@WIS	L 72-80	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 152
Jan 10	vsMD	W 67-55	-13.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 122
Jan 14	@PSU	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	@OSU	L 74-86	+4.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 20	vsPUR	W 69-67	+5.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsNU	W 71-64	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 135
Jan 28	@ORE	W 73-57	-4.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Jan 31	vsIU	L 97-98	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	vsRUTG	W 98-66	-13.5	W +18.5	142.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsWASH	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 14	@MICH	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Feb 17	@MSU	L 59-82	+8.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 141
Feb 21	vsILL	W 95-94	+6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 24	vsUSC	W 81-62	-6.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 143
Feb 28	@MINN	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 151
Mar 3	vsNEB	W 72-52	-1.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 7	@USC	W 89-68	-4.5	W +16.5	151.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsRUTG	W 72-59	-10.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 13	vsMSU	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 172
Mar 14	vsPUR	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 20	vsUCF	W 75-71	-5.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 22	vsCONN	L 57-73	+5.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

−23.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−18.5

WGA

W 83-62

−9.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−2.5

SAC

W 79-48

+3.5

PRES

W 86-46

+14.5

CAL

L 72-80

−15.5

WASH

W 82-80

−0.5

ORE

W 74-63

+2.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+0.5

ASU

W 90-77

+3.5

W 108-87

−3.5

UCR

W 97-65

+7.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−6.5

WIS

L 72-80

−4.5

W 67-55

−1.5

PSU

W 71-60

+6.5

OSU

L 74-86

−7.5

PUR

W 69-67

+7.5

W 71-64

−0.5

ORE

W 73-57

+11.5

L 97-98

−4.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+18.5

WASH

W 77-73

−0.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

−14.5

ILL

W 95-94

+7.5

USC

W 81-62

+12.5

MINN

L 73-78

−6.5

NEB

W 72-52

+18.5

USC

W 89-68

+16.5

RUTG

W 72-59

+2.5

MSU

W 88-84

+9.5

PUR

L 66-73

+0.5

UCF

W 75-71

−1.5

CONN

L 57-73

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 19avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

+4.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−15.5

WGA

W 83-62

−1.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−19.5

SAC

W 79-48

−19.5

PRES

W 86-46

+0.5

CAL

L 72-80

+8.5

WASH

W 82-80

+20.5

ORE

W 74-63

−9.5

GONZ

L 72-82

+6.5

ASU

W 90-77

+24.5

W 108-87

+33.5

UCR

W 97-65

+13.5

IOWA

L 61-74

−5.5

WIS

L 72-80

−0.5

W 67-55

−25.5

PSU

W 71-60

−17.5

OSU

L 74-86

+13.5

PUR

W 69-67

−11.5

W 71-64

−8.5

ORE

W 73-57

−6.5

L 97-98

+50.5

RUTG

W 98-66

+21.5

WASH

W 77-73

+5.5

MICH

L 56-86

−14.5

MSU

L 59-82

+1.5

ILL

W 95-94

+42.5

USC

W 81-62

−7.5

MINN

L 73-78

+14.5

NEB

W 72-52

−20.5

USC

W 89-68

+5.5

RUTG

W 72-59

−10.5

MSU

W 88-84

+30.5

PUR

L 66-73

−4.5

UCF

W 75-71

−5.5

CONN

L 57-73

−5.5

over 17under 19avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Washington

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W L W W W L L W W L W W L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

W L L W L W L W W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L W L W L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

U O U U O O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O O U U U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUAPB	W 94-50	-34.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	vsDEN	W 84-70	-27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@BAY	L 69-78	+6.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	@WSU	W 81-69	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsSOU	W 99-93	-23.5	L −17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 27	vsNEV	W 83-66	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsCOLO	L 68-81	-2.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 3	vsUCLA	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	@USC	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 160
Dec 13	vsSUU	W 105-69	-25.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 174
Dec 19	@SEA	L 66-70	-7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsUSD	W 86-56	-18.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 142
Dec 29	vsUTAH	W 74-65	-12.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 4	@IU	L 80-90	+9.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@PUR	L 73-81	+16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 11	vsOSU	W 81-74	-1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 155
Jan 14	vsMICH	L 72-82	+12.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsMSU	L 63-80	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 21	@NEB	L 66-76	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 25	vsORE	W 72-57	-7.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 29	@ILL	L 66-75	+12.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 141
Jan 31	@NU	W 76-62	+1.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsIOWA	L 74-84	+2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 7	@UCLA	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 11	vsPSU	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	vsMINN	W 69-57	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 21	@MD	L 60-64	-4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 24	@RUTG	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsWIS	L 73-90	+1.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 4	vsUSC	W 91-72	-5.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 163
Mar 7	@ORE	L 79-85	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsUSC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 12	vsWIS	L 82-85	+6.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

+9.5

DEN

W 84-70

−13.5

BAY

L 69-78

−2.5

WSU

W 81-69

+3.5

SOU

W 99-93

−17.5

NEV

W 83-66

+13.5

COLO

L 68-81

−15.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+0.5

USC

W 84-76

+12.5

SUU

W 105-69

+10.5

SEA

L 66-70

−11.5

USD

W 86-56

+11.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−3.5

L 80-90

−0.5

PUR

L 73-81

+8.5

OSU

W 81-74

+5.5

MICH

L 72-82

+2.5

MSU

L 63-80

−13.5

NEB

L 66-76

+0.5

ORE

W 72-57

+7.5

ILL

L 66-75

+3.5

W 76-62

+15.5

IOWA

L 74-84

−7.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+0.5

PSU

L 60-63

−15.5

MINN

W 69-57

+5.5

L 60-64

−8.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+2.5

WIS

L 73-90

−15.5

USC

W 91-72

+13.5

ORE

L 79-85

−7.5

USC

W 83-79

+0.5

WIS

L 82-85

+3.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

−16.5

DEN

W 84-70

+0.5

BAY

L 69-78

−9.5

WSU

W 81-69

−8.5

SOU

W 99-93

+34.5

NEV

W 83-66

+3.5

COLO

L 68-81

−2.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+20.5

USC

W 84-76

+5.5

SUU

W 105-69

+20.5

SEA

L 66-70

−15.5

USD

W 86-56

−17.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−18.5

L 80-90

+17.5

PUR

L 73-81

−0.5

OSU

W 81-74

−0.5

MICH

L 72-82

−11.5

MSU

L 63-80

−2.5

NEB

L 66-76

−10.5

ORE

W 72-57

−14.5

ILL

L 66-75

−12.5

W 76-62

−8.5

IOWA

L 74-84

+16.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+5.5

PSU

L 60-63

−30.5

MINN

W 69-57

−12.5

L 60-64

−19.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+11.5

WIS

L 73-90

+9.5

USC

W 91-72

+12.5

ORE

L 79-85

+18.5

USC

W 83-79

+7.5

WIS

L 82-85

+9.5

over 15under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UCLA has the better starters

Position by position: UCLA 1, Washington 0, even 4

UCLABetterWashington

G J. Petty TR9.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 70

Even

G R. Beasley TR13.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 84

G T. Perry12.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93

UCLASmall

G W. Yates12.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 68

F E. Dailey11.6 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 88

Even

G L. Watts TR11.8 pts · 6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 87

F S. Macura TR5 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 71

Even

G P. Friedrichsen TR10.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

C X. Booker7.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75

Even

G T. Comer TR11 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Score 68

UCLABetterWashington

UCLA offense47th of 366 · +3.8

Even

WASH defense48th of 366 · +2.2

UCLA defense14th of 366 · +6.4

Even

WASH offense57th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt+3.8 · 2 players

WASHSmall

Backcourt+5.8 · 5 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench+0.2 · 4 players

UCLASmall

Bench-1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUCLA betterWASH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UCLA

Guards

J. Petty30 min · TRT. Perry30 minA. Robinson18 min · TRE. Freeny11 minM. AlstonNewJ. HouegbanNew

Forwards

E. Dailey28 minS. Macura19 min · TRB. Williams12 minJ. PhilonNewN. KusturicaNewG. GrinvaldsNew

Centers

X. Booker20 minF. Jovic18 min · TRJ. FloydNew

Washington

Guards

R. Beasley34 min · TRW. Yates31 minL. Watts27 min · TRP. Friedrichsen26 min · TRT. Comer25 min · TRH. Zrno19 min · TR

Forwards

N. Dzepina11 minJ. Rencher9 minM. TraoreNewW. BragaNew

Centers

L. Sommerville15 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCLA77.0 #115

WASH77.1 #114

Points per possession

UCLA1.16 #48

WASH1.12 #103

Pace (possessions)

UCLA66.5 #297

WASH68.8 #196

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCLA53.4 #85

WASH51.2 #187

3-point %

UCLA37.9 #19

WASH31.5 #307

3-point attempt rate

UCLA35.5 #259

WASH34.6 #284

Free throw rate

UCLA33.1 #237

WASH30.1 #308

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCLA13.4 #14

WASH15.3 #81

Offensive rebound rate

UCLA31.1 #162

WASH34.6 #56

Assists per game

UCLA16.1 #45

WASH13.9 #152

Defense

Points allowed

UCLA71.1 #75

WASH73.6 #146

Points allowed per possession

UCLA1.07 #129

WASH1.07 #140

Opponent effective FG%

UCLA50.4 #120

WASH50.1 #108

Opponent 3-point %

UCLA32.0 #64

WASH33.6 #163

Turnovers forced

UCLA18.5 #76

WASH14.4 #325

Defensive rebound rate

UCLA66.7 #304

WASH71.5 #84

Steals per game

UCLA6.7 #156

WASH5.7 #271

Blocks per game

UCLA3.0 #218

WASH4.2 #58

UCLA		WASH
Scoring
77.0 #115	Points per game	77.1 #114
1.16 #48	Points per possession	1.12 #103
66.5 #297	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #196
Shooting
53.4 #85	Effective FG%	51.2 #187
37.9 #19	3-point %	31.5 #307
35.5 #259	3-point attempt rate	34.6 #284
33.1 #237	Free throw rate	30.1 #308
Possessions
13.4 #14	Turnover rate	15.3 #81
31.1 #162	Offensive rebound rate	34.6 #56
16.1 #45	Assists per game	13.9 #152
Defense
71.1 #75	Points allowed	73.6 #146
1.07 #129	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #140
50.4 #120	Opponent effective FG%	50.1 #108
32.0 #64	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #163
18.5 #76	Turnovers forced	14.4 #325
66.7 #304	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #84
6.7 #156	Steals per game	5.7 #271
3.0 #218	Blocks per game	4.2 #58

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UCLA

24-12 in 2025-26 overall · 15-8 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn57–73
Wvs UCF75–71
Lvs Purdue66–73
Wvs Michigan St88–84
Wvs Rutgers72–59

A week or more of rest.

Washington

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wisconsin82–85
Wvs USC83–79
L@ Oregon79–85
Wvs USC91–72
Lvs Wisconsin73–90

A week or more of rest.

UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies

What could decide it: UCLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UCLA

Washington

UCLA has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UCLA

Washington