1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 26
  3. UGA vs CIN
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 26

Georgia Bulldogs vs Cincinnati Bearcats

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#34UGAGeorgia
vs
#30CINCincinnati
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UGAThis seasonCIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UGA 79–79 · win probability UGA 52%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UGA has more of the edges

UGA 3, CIN 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UGASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UGA 36.9, CIN 29.4. Allowed: UGA 30.2, CIN 30.0
UGASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UGA 14.3%, CIN 17.0%. Forced: UGA 18.4%, CIN 18.2%
CINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UGA 34.9%, CIN 30.6%. Defensive: UGA 65.1%, CIN 72.7%
UGASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UGA 46%, CIN 1%. Transfers in: UGA 4, CIN 12. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UGA plays 74.7 a game (8th fastest), CIN 69.4 (152nd). Faster games mean more points
CINSmall
Three-pointers
UGA hits 33.8% and allows 33.6%; CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 44.3% and 43.8% of their shots
Even
CIN offense vs UGA defense
Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 75th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UGA 54.2 and allows 50.6; CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4
Context
Schedule so far
UGA has played the 52nd-hardest schedule, CIN the 39th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
UGA offense vs CIN defense
Offense 19th of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UGA -0.6—
Total—157.7—
Projected score—UGA 79.1 · CIN 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUGA -0.5—
1H total73.7—
1H projected scoreUGA 37.1 · CIN 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Georgia has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia 1, Cincinnati 0, even 4
GeorgiaBetterCincinnati
G B. Cain13.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 95
Even
G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95
G F. Dilione V TR14 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
UGASmall
G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75
G M. Millender12 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 89
Even
G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
F K. Catchings11.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
Even
G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92
F J. Scott TR3.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
Even
F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
GeorgiaBetterCincinnati
UGA offense19th of 366 · +7.8
Even
CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9
UGA defense75th of 366 · +0.7
Even
CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
CINBig
Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+2.4 · 2 players
CINSmall
Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
CINBig
Bench+6.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUGA betterCIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Georgia
Guards
B. Cain28 minF. Dilione V28 min · TRM. Millender26 minB. Klatsky2 minM. Jennings1 minK. MillenderNew
Forwards
K. Catchings23 minJ. Scott18 min · TRB. Dunlap17 min · TRK. Stagg13 minA. Osasuyi12 min · TRM. KuanyNew
Cincinnati
Guards
J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR
Forwards
T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UGACIN
Scoring
89.4 #3Points per game73.1 #221
1.19 #18Points per possession1.05 #243
74.7 #8Pace (possessions)69.4 #152
Shooting
54.2 #61Effective FG%50.5 #213
33.8 #1853-point %33.9 #175
44.3 #833-point attempt rate43.8 #94
36.9 #131Free throw rate29.4 #323
Possessions
14.3 #31Turnover rate17.0 #203
34.9 #49Offensive rebound rate30.6 #174
14.8 #102Assists per game16.6 #35
Defense
79.8 #314Points allowed67.6 #27
1.07 #135Points allowed per possession0.97 #9
50.6 #134Opponent effective FG%47.4 #27
33.6 #165Opponent 3-point %31.0 #35
18.4 #82Turnovers forced18.2 #89
65.1 #336Defensive rebound rate72.7 #45
8.4 #21Steals per game6.3 #208
6.0 #3Blocks per game4.2 #53
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Louis77–102
  • Lvs Ole Miss72–76
  • W@ Mississippi St102–96
  • Wvs Alabama98–88
  • Wvs South Carolina87–68

A week or more of rest.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCF65–66
  • Wvs Utah73–66
  • L@ TCU63–73
  • Wvs BYU90–68
  • Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.