1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. CIN vs BC
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Boston College Eagles

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#30CINCincinnati
vs
#95BCBoston College
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CINThis seasonBC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 78–68 · win probability CIN 79%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

CIN 5, BC 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CINSmall
Three-pointers
CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%; BC hits 29.4% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 43.8% and 42.4% of their shots
CINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4; BC 47.0 and allows 48.9
CINSmall
BC offense vs CIN defense
Offense 96th of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
CINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CIN 30.6%, BC 28.3%. Defensive: CIN 72.7%, BC 71.4%
CINSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CIN 17.0%, BC 15.4%. Forced: CIN 18.2%, BC 14.8%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CIN plays 69.4 a game (152nd fastest), BC 67.5 (257th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
CIN has played the 39th-hardest schedule, BC the 79th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
CIN offense vs BC defense
Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 83rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CIN 29.4, BC 32.4. Allowed: CIN 30.0, BC 34.6
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CIN 1%, BC 1%. Transfers in: CIN 12, BC 11. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CIN -9.3—
Total—145.8—
Projected score—CIN 77.6 · BC 68.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCIN -5.7—
1H total68.2—
1H projected scoreCIN 36.9 · BC 31.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: Cincinnati 2, Boston College 0, even 3
CincinnatiBetterBoston College
G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95
CINSmall
G E. Shelton TR15.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75
CINSmall
G A. Zeigler TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 3.3 ast Score 60
G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
Even
G M. Williams TR21.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92
Even
F B. Benjamin TR14.2 pts · 10.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
Even
F A. Bukumirovic TR13.7 pts · 7.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
CincinnatiBetterBoston College
CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7
Even
BC defense83rd of 366 · +0.1
CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9
CINSmall
BC offense96th of 366 · -0.7
Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players
CINBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player
BCSmall
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
Bench+6.3 · 5 players
CINBig
Bench-4.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCIN betterBC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cincinnati
Guards
J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR
Forwards
T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew
Boston College
Guards
E. Shelton37 min · TRA. Zeigler33 min · TRM. Williams32 min · TRJ. Frankel21 min · TRJ. O'Toole3 min · TRJ. Furphy3 min · TR
Forwards
B. Benjamin31 min · TRA. Bukumirovic30 min · TRC. Duggan28 min · TRL. Hunger19 min · TRA. Tounkara18 min · TRJ. BaileyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CINBC
Scoring
73.1 #221Points per game67.4 #326
1.05 #243Points per possession1.00 #323
69.4 #152Pace (possessions)67.5 #257
Shooting
50.5 #213Effective FG%47.0 #338
33.9 #1753-point %29.4 #348
43.8 #943-point attempt rate42.4 #130
29.4 #323Free throw rate32.4 #251
Possessions
17.0 #203Turnover rate15.4 #102
30.6 #174Offensive rebound rate28.3 #254
16.6 #35Assists per game11.3 #323
Defense
67.6 #27Points allowed70.7 #70
0.97 #9Points allowed per possession1.04 #81
47.4 #27Opponent effective FG%48.9 #62
31.0 #35Opponent 3-point %31.9 #59
18.2 #89Turnovers forced14.8 #303
72.7 #45Defensive rebound rate71.4 #87
6.3 #208Steals per game4.8 #341
4.2 #53Blocks per game4.1 #62
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCF65–66
  • Wvs Utah73–66
  • L@ TCU63–73
  • Wvs BYU90–68
  • Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.

Boston College

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Notre Dame77–69
  • L@ Virginia Tech63–72
  • L@ Miami54–76
  • Wvs Wake Forest68–67
  • L@ SMU70–94

A week or more of rest.