Villanova Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM ETAllen Fieldhouse · at Kansas

#16KUKansas AP #17

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Villanova and Kansas
VILL	This season	KU
0-1	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
1-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KU 81–72 · win probability KU 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

VILL 2, KU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VILLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: VILL 15.0%, KU 15.6%. Forced: VILL 18.6%, KU 13.8%

KUSmall

Home court

KU at home. This season: KU 0-0 at home, VILL 0-0 away

VILLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: VILL 33%, KU 9%. Transfers in: VILL 6, KU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: VILL plays 67.3 a game (270th fastest), KU 68.8 (193rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: VILL 53.8 and allows 51.4; KU 51.2 and allows 45.0

Context

Schedule so far

VILL has played the 35th-hardest schedule, KU the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

VILL hits 35.7% and allows 33.4%; KU hits 34.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 45.7% and 35.2% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: VILL 30.9, KU 32.2. Allowed: VILL 30.0, KU 27.4

Even

VILL offense vs KU defense

Offense 39th of 366 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

KU offense vs VILL defense

Offense 17th of 366 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: VILL 32.2%, KU 29.3%. Defensive: VILL 68.2%, KU 70.1%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KU -9.2	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	VILL 71.5 · KU 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KU -5.3	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	VILL 32.9 · KU 38.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VILL LWWLL	19-14	58%	8-4	—
KU WWLLW	21-14	60%	10-5	—

Venue/role: VILL away; KU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
VILL UUOOO	20-13	61%	24-9
KU OOUUU	11-24	31%	24-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VILL	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
KU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Villanova

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ TEM	W74–56WU
Dec 9	vs FDU	W86–72LO
Dec 12	vs WIS	W76–66WU

Kansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs UNI	No recent meeting
Dec 6	vs MIZ	W80–60WU
Dec 12	@ CONN	L56–61LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VILL 0–1 KUKU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · VILL 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 2, 2021-22	VILL 65 vs KU 81	KU -4	KU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Villanova

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

L W W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W W W W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1458%

W W W L W L W W L W W W L W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1361%

U O U O U O U O U O U U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBYU	L 66-71	+9.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsQUC	W 94-74	-17.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsSHU	W 94-60	-19.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsDUQ	W 87-77	-10.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	@LAS	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 25	vsODU	W 89-75	-22.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 164
Dec 1	vsTEM	W 74-56	-14.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 6	vsPENN	W 90-63	-18.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 9	@MICH	L 61-89	+17.5	L −10.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 13	vsPITT	W 79-61	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsWIS	W 76-66	+3.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 23	@HALL	W 64-56	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 31	vsDEP	W 71-66	-12.5	L −7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@BTLR	W 85-67	+2.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 152
Jan 7	vsCREI	L 72-76	-4.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	@MARQ	W 76-73	-3.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@PROV	W 88-82	-2.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 170
Jan 17	vsSJU	L 79-86	+2.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 165
Jan 21	vsGTWN	W 66-51	-8.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 117
Jan 24	@CONN	L 67-75	+11.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 30	vsPROV	W 87-73	-8.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 160
Feb 4	vsHALL	W 72-60	-5.5	W +6.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 7	@GTWN	W 80-73	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsMARQ	W 77-74	-9.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@CREI	W 80-69	-1.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 17	@XAV	W 92-89	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsCONN	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsBTLR	W 82-73	-10.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 28	@SJU	L 57-89	+7.5	L −24.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 4	@DEP	W 76-57	-1.5	W +17.5	135.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsXAV	W 91-78	-11.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsGTWN	L 64-78	-7.5	L −21.5	140.5	O 142
Mar 20	vsUSU	L 76-86	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

+4.5

QUC

W 94-74

+2.5

SHU

W 94-60

+14.5

DUQ

W 87-77

−0.5

LAS

W 70-55

+2.5

ODU

W 89-75

−8.5

TEM

W 74-56

+3.5

PENN

W 90-63

+8.5

MICH

L 61-89

−10.5

PITT

W 79-61

+7.5

WIS

W 76-66

+13.5

HALL

W 64-56

+9.5

DEP

W 71-66

−7.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+20.5

CREI

L 72-76

−8.5

MARQ

W 76-73

−0.5

PROV

W 88-82

+3.5

SJU

L 79-86

−4.5

GTWN

W 66-51

+6.5

CONN

L 67-75

+3.5

PROV

W 87-73

+5.5

HALL

W 72-60

+6.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+4.5

MARQ

W 77-74

−6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+9.5

XAV

W 92-89

−1.5

CONN

L 63-73

−6.5

BTLR

W 82-73

−1.5

SJU

L 57-89

−24.5

DEP

W 76-57

+17.5

XAV

W 91-78

+1.5

GTWN

L 64-78

−21.5

USU

L 76-86

−8.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

−16.5

QUC

W 94-74

+17.5

SHU

W 94-60

−6.5

DUQ

W 87-77

+12.5

LAS

W 70-55

−19.5

ODU

W 89-75

+16.5

TEM

W 74-56

−16.5

PENN

W 90-63

+2.5

MICH

L 61-89

−6.5

PITT

W 79-61

+1.5

WIS

W 76-66

−10.5

HALL

W 64-56

−15.5

DEP

W 71-66

−2.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+2.5

CREI

L 72-76

+5.5

MARQ

W 76-73

+2.5

PROV

W 88-82

+13.5

SJU

L 79-86

+17.5

GTWN

W 66-51

−25.5

CONN

L 67-75

+4.5

PROV

W 87-73

+2.5

HALL

W 72-60

−2.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+12.5

MARQ

W 77-74

+6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+3.5

XAV

W 92-89

+28.5

CONN

L 63-73

−5.5

BTLR

W 82-73

+7.5

SJU

L 57-89

−1.5

DEP

W 76-57

−2.5

XAV

W 91-78

+15.5

GTWN

L 64-78

+1.5

USU

L 76-86

+15.5

over 20under 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

21-14

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

W L W W L W W W L W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1460%

W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L W W W W W W L W L W L W L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U U U U U O U U O U O U O O U U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 24	vsND	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsSYR	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsTENN	W 81-76	+7.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	vsCONN	L 56-61	+3.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 7	vsMIZ	W 80-60	-5.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 13	@NCSU	W 77-76	+1.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 153
Dec 16	vsTOW	W 73-49	-14.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsDAV	W 90-61	-14.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 3	@UCF	L 75-81	-4.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 6	vsTCU	W 104-100	-6.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 204
Jan 10	@WVU	L 75-86	-2.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 13	vsISU	W 84-63	+3.5	W +24.5	152.5	U 147
Jan 16	vsBAY	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	156.5	U 142
Jan 20	@COLO	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 144
Jan 24	@KSU	W 86-62	-4.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 31	vsBYU	W 90-82	-2.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 172
Feb 2	@TTU	W 64-61	+3.5	W +6.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsUTAH	W 71-59	-18.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 130
Feb 9	vsARIZ	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ISU	L 56-74	+7.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 130
Feb 18	@OKST	W 81-69	-7.5	W +4.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsCIN	L 68-84	-8.5	L −24.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 23	vsHOU	W 69-56	+2.5	W +15.5	138.5	U 125
Feb 28	@ARIZ	L 61-84	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	@ASU	L 60-70	-5.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 130
Mar 7	vsKSU	W 104-85	-17.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 12	vsTCU	W 78-73	-4.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 151
Mar 13	vsHOU	L 47-69	+5.5	L −16.5	139.5	U 116
Mar 20	vsCBU	W 68-60	-14.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 128
Mar 22	vsSJU	L 65-67	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

W 71-61

+4.5

SYR

W 71-60

+6.5

TENN

W 81-76

+12.5

CONN

L 56-61

−1.5

MIZ

W 80-60

+14.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+2.5

TOW

W 73-49

+9.5

DAV

W 90-61

+14.5

UCF

L 75-81

−10.5

TCU

W 104-100

−2.5

WVU

L 75-86

−13.5

ISU

W 84-63

+24.5

BAY

W 80-62

+10.5

COLO

W 75-69

+1.5

KSU

W 86-62

+19.5

BYU

W 90-82

+5.5

TTU

W 64-61

+6.5

UTAH

W 71-59

−6.5

ARIZ

W 82-78

+9.5

ISU

L 56-74

−10.5

OKST

W 81-69

+4.5

CIN

L 68-84

−24.5

HOU

W 69-56

+15.5

ARIZ

L 61-84

−13.5

ASU

L 60-70

−15.5

KSU

W 104-85

+1.5

TCU

W 78-73

+0.5

HOU

L 47-69

−16.5

CBU

W 68-60

−6.5

SJU

L 65-67

+1.5

covered 21didn’t cover 14avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

W 71-61

−11.5

SYR

W 71-60

−13.5

TENN

W 81-76

+16.5

CONN

L 56-61

−24.5

MIZ

W 80-60

−10.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+4.5

TOW

W 73-49

−15.5

DAV

W 90-61

+11.5

UCF

L 75-81

−1.5

TCU

W 104-100

+60.5

WVU

L 75-86

+21.5

ISU

W 84-63

−5.5

BAY

W 80-62

−14.5

COLO

W 75-69

−11.5

KSU

W 86-62

−10.5

BYU

W 90-82

+12.5

TTU

W 64-61

−30.5

UTAH

W 71-59

−20.5

ARIZ

W 82-78

+7.5

ISU

L 56-74

−17.5

OKST

W 81-69

−8.5

CIN

L 68-84

+12.5

HOU

W 69-56

−13.5

ARIZ

L 61-84

−6.5

ASU

L 60-70

−21.5

KSU

W 104-85

+31.5

TCU

W 78-73

+4.5

HOU

L 47-69

−23.5

CBU

W 68-60

−14.5

SJU

L 65-67

−12.5

over 11under 24avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas has the better starters

Position by position: Villanova 0, Kansas 1, even 4

VillanovaBetterKansas

G J. Fiegen TR11 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 82

Even

G L. Blyden TR16.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.5 ast Score 85

G D. Simmons TR16.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 63

KUSmall

G D. Parker TR18.6 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94

G T. Perkins18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 100

Even

F K. Dawes TR12.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91

F D. Royal TR5 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast Score 100

Even

F T. Kaufman-Renn TR14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 98

F K. Evans TR13.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2 ast Score 95

Even

C C. Reeves TR11 pts · 7.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 94

VillanovaBetterKansas

VILL offense39th of 366 · +5.0

Even

KU defense15th of 366 · +6.3

VILL defense30th of 366 · +3.5

Even

KU offense17th of 366 · +8.6

Backcourt+7.2 · 3 players

VILLSmall

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players

KUBig

Frontcourt+13.0 · 3 players

Bench+3.3 · 4 players

VILLBig

Bench+0.1 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestVILL betterKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Villanova

Guards

J. Fiegen38 min · TRD. Simmons36 min · TRT. Perkins35 minE. Crawford26 min · TRW. Chiddick3 minB. MullerNew

Forwards

D. Royal32 min · TRK. Evans31 min · TRM. Hodge28 minA. Samb6 min · TR

Centers

N. OnyekwereNewL. SuigoNew

Kansas

Guards

L. Blyden34 min · TRD. Parker30 min · TRK. Rosario12 minW. Thengvall2 minT. StokesNewT. PerryNew

Forwards

K. Dawes31 min · TRT. Kaufman-Renn28 min · TRD. AdkinsNewA. RichmondNewG. MordiniNew

Centers

C. Reeves21 min · TRP. Mbiya5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

VILL77.1 #113

KU75.1 #161

Points per possession

VILL1.15 #64

KU1.09 #152

Pace (possessions)

VILL67.3 #270

KU68.8 #193

Shooting

Effective FG%

VILL53.8 #74

KU51.2 #186

3-point %

VILL35.7 #77

KU34.6 #139

3-point attempt rate

VILL45.7 #52

KU35.2 #268

Free throw rate

VILL30.9 #284

KU32.2 #255

Possessions

Turnover rate

VILL15.0 #65

KU15.6 #111

Offensive rebound rate

VILL32.2 #118

KU29.3 #227

Assists per game

VILL15.5 #66

KU13.9 #150

Defense

Points allowed

VILL71.2 #82

KU69.1 #47

Points allowed per possession

VILL1.06 #105

KU1.00 #28

Opponent effective FG%

VILL51.4 #181

KU45.0 #2

Opponent 3-point %

VILL33.4 #148

KU30.6 #24

Turnovers forced

VILL18.6 #70

KU13.8 #340

Defensive rebound rate

VILL68.2 #246

KU70.1 #152

Steals per game

VILL7.4 #93

KU5.4 #310

Blocks per game

VILL2.1 #340

KU5.8 #6

VILL		KU
Scoring
77.1 #113	Points per game	75.1 #161
1.15 #64	Points per possession	1.09 #152
67.3 #270	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #193
Shooting
53.8 #74	Effective FG%	51.2 #186
35.7 #77	3-point %	34.6 #139
45.7 #52	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #268
30.9 #284	Free throw rate	32.2 #255
Possessions
15.0 #65	Turnover rate	15.6 #111
32.2 #118	Offensive rebound rate	29.3 #227
15.5 #66	Assists per game	13.9 #150
Defense
71.2 #82	Points allowed	69.1 #47
1.06 #105	Points allowed per possession	1.00 #28
51.4 #181	Opponent effective FG%	45.0 #2
33.4 #148	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #24
18.6 #70	Turnovers forced	13.8 #340
68.2 #246	Defensive rebound rate	70.1 #152
7.4 #93	Steals per game	5.4 #310
2.1 #340	Blocks per game	5.8 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Villanova

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah State76–86
Lvs Georgetown64–78
Wvs Xavier91–78
W@ DePaul76–57
L@ St John's57–89

A week or more of rest.

Kansas

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St John's65–67
Wvs CA Baptist68–60
Lvs Houston47–69
Wvs TCU78–73
Wvs Kansas St104–85

A week or more of rest.

Villanova Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Villanova

Kansas

Kansas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Villanova

Kansas