Radford Highlanders at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 4:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Radford and American
RAD	This season	AMER
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AMER 78–70 · win probability AMER 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AMER has more of the edges

RAD 1, AMER 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RADBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: RAD 42.4, AMER 28.7. Allowed: RAD 40.0, AMER 42.1

AMERBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RAD 12%, AMER 96%. Transfers in: RAD 6, AMER 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: RAD plays 73.6 a game (13th fastest), AMER 66.7 (289th). Faster games mean more points

AMERSmall

RAD offense vs AMER defense

Offense 213th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

AMERSmall

AMER offense vs RAD defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 286th, on the model’s ratings

AMERSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RAD 17.1%, AMER 15.6%. Forced: RAD 18.5%, AMER 19.2%

AMERSmall

Home court

AMER at home. This season: AMER 0-0 at home, RAD 0-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RAD 29.8%, AMER 26.9%. Defensive: RAD 67.8%, AMER 70.6%

Even

Three-pointers

RAD hits 33.5% and allows 35.5%; AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 45.4% and 46.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

RAD has played the 243rd-hardest schedule, AMER the 263rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: RAD 51.4 and allows 53.0; AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AMER -7.7	—
Total	—	148.3	—
Projected score	—	RAD 70.3 · AMER 78

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -4.4	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	RAD 32.5 · AMER 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RAD LWWLL	14-15	48%	8-4	—
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—

Venue/role: RAD away; AMER home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RAD UUUOO	17-12	59%	13-16
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RAD	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Radford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs HAMP	W60–54WU
Nov 29	vs UML	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ ECU	No recent meeting

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs UML	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs HAMP	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ MD	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Radford

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

W L L L L L L L W W L W W W L W W L L W W L L W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1548%

L W L L L L W L W W L L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1259%

O O U O U O U O U O O O U U O O O U O U O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIU	W 80-75	-16.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 11	@UNC	L 74-89	+20.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsWRST	L 59-92	-6.5	L −39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsCLE	L 82-87	-8.5	L −13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 18	@SC	L 58-87	+10.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsUNCW	L 73-81	+4.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 24	@SMU	L 72-89	+23.5	W +6.5	165.5	U 161
Dec 3	vsUSM	L 75-82	-3.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 7	vsSFPA	W 89-56	-13.5	W +19.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 14	vsCOPP	W 107-77	-20.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 18	@W&M	L 83-96	+8.5	L −4.5	170.5	O 179
Dec 21	vsVMI	W 97-90	-11.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 187
Dec 31	@UPST	W 76-69	+1.5	W +8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsPRES	W 80-61	-6.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsUNCA	L 72-91	-4.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 14	@GWEB	W 89-80	-13.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 169
Jan 17	vsLONG	W 85-83	-4.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	@WIN	L 75-76	+9.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 151
Jan 23	vsHPU	L 83-93	+7.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 176
Jan 29	@CHSO	W 84-75	-1.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 159
Jan 31	@PRES	W 93-84	+1.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 177
Feb 4	vsWIN	L 78-80	+4.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 158
Feb 7	@HPU	L 77-86	+14.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsCHSO	W 90-80	-4.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 170
Feb 19	vsGWEB	W 82-70	-18.5	L −6.5	162.5	U 152
Feb 21	@UNCA	L 73-74	+2.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 147
Feb 26	vsUPST	W 71-59	-7.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	@LONG	L 74-90	+1.5	L −14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsPRES	L 85-91	-2.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

−11.5

UNC

L 74-89

+5.5

WRST

L 59-92

−39.5

CLE

L 82-87

−13.5

L 58-87

−18.5

UNCW

L 73-81

−3.5

SMU

L 72-89

+6.5

USM

L 75-82

−10.5

SFPA

W 89-56

+19.5

COPP

W 107-77

+9.5

W&M

L 83-96

−4.5

VMI

W 97-90

−4.5

UPST

W 76-69

+8.5

PRES

W 80-61

+12.5

UNCA

L 72-91

−23.5

GWEB

W 89-80

−4.5

LONG

W 85-83

−2.5

WIN

L 75-76

+8.5

HPU

L 83-93

−2.5

CHSO

W 84-75

+7.5

PRES

W 93-84

+10.5

WIN

L 78-80

+2.5

HPU

L 77-86

+5.5

CHSO

W 90-80

+5.5

GWEB

W 82-70

−6.5

UNCA

L 73-74

+1.5

UPST

W 71-59

+4.5

LONG

L 74-90

−14.5

PRES

L 85-91

−8.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

+3.5

UNC

L 74-89

+0.5

WRST

L 59-92

−5.5

CLE

L 82-87

+6.5

L 58-87

−8.5

UNCW

L 73-81

+2.5

SMU

L 72-89

−4.5

USM

L 75-82

+4.5

SFPA

W 89-56

−9.5

COPP

W 107-77

+29.5

W&M

L 83-96

+8.5

VMI

W 97-90

+28.5

UPST

W 76-69

−13.5

PRES

W 80-61

−6.5

UNCA

L 72-91

+11.5

GWEB

W 89-80

+3.5

LONG

W 85-83

+10.5

WIN

L 75-76

−14.5

HPU

L 83-93

+10.5

CHSO

W 84-75

−3.5

PRES

W 93-84

+25.5

WIN

L 78-80

−3.5

HPU

L 77-86

+0.5

CHSO

W 90-80

+8.5

GWEB

W 82-70

−10.5

UNCA

L 73-74

−2.5

UPST

W 71-59

−22.5

LONG

L 74-90

+9.5

PRES

L 85-91

+29.5

over 17under 12avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American has the better starters

Position by position: Radford 1, American 3, even 1

RadfordBetterAmerican

G J. Robinson TR6.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 52

RADSmall

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

G T. Gross TR3.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 21

AMERBig

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

F C. Jackson TR4 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 36

AMERSmall

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

F P. Kabamba TR5.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 38

Even

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

F F. Erichsen4.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27

AMERSmall

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

RadfordBetterAmerican

RAD offense213th of 366 · -6.5

AMERSmall

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

RAD defense286th of 366 · -7.2

AMERSmall

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

AMERSmall

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.1 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 4 players

RADSmall

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestRAD betterAMER betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Radford

Guards

J. Robinson17 min · TRT. Gross13 min · TRW. Keel6 minM. Grujicic6 min · TRJ. Kee3 min · TRK. PruettNew

Forwards

C. Jackson17 min · TRP. Kabamba17 min · TRF. Erichsen13 minA. NokesNew

Centers

G. Ferreira5 min

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RAD79.9 #70

AMER72.0 #242

Points per possession

RAD1.09 #168

AMER1.08 #190

Pace (possessions)

RAD73.6 #13

AMER66.7 #289

Shooting

Effective FG%

RAD51.4 #181

AMER51.5 #169

3-point %

RAD33.5 #199

AMER33.0 #235

3-point attempt rate

RAD45.4 #59

AMER46.5 #39

Free throw rate

RAD42.4 #25

AMER28.7 #335

Possessions

Turnover rate

RAD17.1 #210

AMER15.6 #110

Offensive rebound rate

RAD29.8 #207

AMER26.9 #299

Assists per game

RAD12.0 #284

AMER12.5 #248

Defense

Points allowed

RAD80.8 #330

AMER72.7 #124

Points allowed per possession

RAD1.10 #216

AMER1.09 #200

Opponent effective FG%

RAD53.0 #271

AMER54.4 #313

Opponent 3-point %

RAD35.5 #279

AMER35.5 #283

Turnovers forced

RAD18.5 #72

AMER19.2 #40

Defensive rebound rate

RAD67.8 #267

AMER70.6 #127

Steals per game

RAD7.5 #79

AMER7.3 #100

Blocks per game

RAD3.4 #158

AMER1.4 #363

RAD		AMER
Scoring
79.9 #70	Points per game	72.0 #242
1.09 #168	Points per possession	1.08 #190
73.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	66.7 #289
Shooting
51.4 #181	Effective FG%	51.5 #169
33.5 #199	3-point %	33.0 #235
45.4 #59	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #39
42.4 #25	Free throw rate	28.7 #335
Possessions
17.1 #210	Turnover rate	15.6 #110
29.8 #207	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #299
12.0 #284	Assists per game	12.5 #248
Defense
80.8 #330	Points allowed	72.7 #124
1.10 #216	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #200
53.0 #271	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #313
35.5 #279	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #283
18.5 #72	Turnovers forced	19.2 #40
67.8 #267	Defensive rebound rate	70.6 #127
7.5 #79	Steals per game	7.3 #100
3.4 #158	Blocks per game	1.4 #363

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Radford

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-8 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Presbyterian85–91
L@ Longwood74–90
Wvs SC Upstate71–59
L@ UNC Asheville73–74
Wvs Gardner-Webb82–70

A week or more of rest.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

Radford Highlanders at American University Eagles

What could decide it: AMER has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Radford

American

American has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Radford

American