UMass Lowell River Hawks at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UMass Lowell and American
UML	This season	AMER
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AMER 80–67 · win probability AMER 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AMER has more of the edges

UML 2, AMER 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AMERBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UML 18.0%, AMER 15.6%. Forced: UML 14.2%, AMER 19.2%

UMLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UML 34.9, AMER 28.7. Allowed: UML 28.3, AMER 42.1

AMERBig

UML offense vs AMER defense

Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

AMERBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UML 16%, AMER 96%. Transfers in: UML 3, AMER 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

AMERBig

AMER offense vs UML defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings

UMLSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UML 32.7%, AMER 26.9%. Defensive: UML 70.7%, AMER 70.6%

AMERSmall

Home court

AMER at home. This season: AMER 0-0 at home, UML 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UML plays 68.9 a game (189th fastest), AMER 66.7 (289th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

UML has played the 312th-hardest schedule, AMER the 263rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UML 49.8 and allows 53.5; AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4

Even

Three-pointers

UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%; AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 31.3% and 46.5% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	AMER -13.1	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	UML 66.5 · AMER 79.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -7.7	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	UML 30.3 · AMER 38	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UML WLWWL	16-14	53%	9-10	—
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—

Venue/role: UML away; AMER home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UML UUUOO	14-16	47%	12-18
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UML	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UMass Lowell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs RAD	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ GTWN	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ BC	No recent meeting

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs HAMP	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ MD	No recent meeting
Dec 6	@ UCF	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass Lowell

30 games played

Straight up

12-18

40% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1840%

L L L L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L L W L W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L L L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

O U O O O U U U U O O O O U U U U U U O U O O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@CONN	L 47-110	+36.5	L −26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsNHVN	L 67-73	-10.5	L −16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 13	@COLU	L 72-86	+13.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	@WAKE	L 75-109	+30.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 19	@BRAD	L 77-87	+21.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 22	@SPU	L 66-68	+8.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 134
Nov 26	@STO	W 75-64	+2.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 6	@MASS	L 60-80	+11.5	L −8.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 13	@QUIN	L 71-75	+12.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsSHU	W 87-82	+2.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 169
Dec 21	@BU	L 76-88	+5.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 29	@IOWA	L 62-90	+33.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 3	vsUALB	W 83-71	-2.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 154
Jan 8	@BRY	W 77-63	+2.5	W +16.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 10	@BING	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 15	vsNJIT	L 64-73	-8.5	L −17.5	145.5	U 137
Jan 22	vsUVM	L 68-77	+4.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 24	@UMBC	L 56-79	+2.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 135
Jan 29	@UNH	L 61-66	+3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 31	vsME	W 91-77	-4.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	@NJIT	L 56-81	+1.5	L −23.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 7	@UALB	W 89-79	+4.5	W +14.5	143.5	O 168
Feb 12	vsBRY	W 88-69	-4.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 157
Feb 19	vsUNH	W 78-56	-3.5	W +18.5	151.5	U 134
Feb 21	vsBING	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 171
Feb 26	@UVM	L 64-66	+9.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsUMBC	L 60-84	+2.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 3	@ME	W 67-56	-1.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	vsUALB	W 81-76	-2.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 157
Mar 10	@UMBC	L 69-91	+7.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

−26.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−16.5

COLU

L 72-86

−0.5

WAKE

L 75-109

−3.5

BRAD

L 77-87

+11.5

SPU

L 66-68

+6.5

STO

W 75-64

+13.5

MASS

L 60-80

−8.5

QUIN

L 71-75

+8.5

SHU

W 87-82

+7.5

L 76-88

−6.5

IOWA

L 62-90

+5.5

UALB

W 83-71

+9.5

BRY

W 77-63

+16.5

BING

W 73-68

−1.5

NJIT

L 64-73

−17.5

UVM

L 68-77

−4.5

UMBC

L 56-79

−20.5

UNH

L 61-66

−1.5

W 91-77

+9.5

NJIT

L 56-81

−23.5

UALB

W 89-79

+14.5

BRY

W 88-69

+14.5

UNH

W 78-56

+18.5

BING

W 92-79

+3.5

UVM

L 64-66

+7.5

UMBC

L 60-84

−21.5

W 67-56

+9.5

UALB

W 81-76

+2.5

UMBC

L 69-91

−14.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

+5.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−2.5

COLU

L 72-86

+1.5

WAKE

L 75-109

+18.5

BRAD

L 77-87

+14.5

SPU

L 66-68

−13.5

STO

W 75-64

−9.5

MASS

L 60-80

−15.5

QUIN

L 71-75

−7.5

SHU

W 87-82

+17.5

L 76-88

+18.5

IOWA

L 62-90

+6.5

UALB

W 83-71

+3.5

BRY

W 77-63

−3.5

BING

W 73-68

−5.5

NJIT

L 64-73

−8.5

UVM

L 68-77

−0.5

UMBC

L 56-79

−16.5

UNH

L 61-66

−19.5

W 91-77

+31.5

NJIT

L 56-81

−12.5

UALB

W 89-79

+24.5

BRY

W 88-69

+15.5

UNH

W 78-56

−17.5

BING

W 92-79

+24.5

UVM

L 64-66

−16.5

UMBC

L 60-84

−6.5

W 67-56

−16.5

UALB

W 81-76

+10.5

UMBC

L 69-91

+12.5

over 14under 16avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American has the better starters

Position by position: UMass Lowell 0, American 3, even 2

UMass LowellBetterAmerican

G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6

AMERSmall

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

AMERBig

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11

AMERSmall

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59

Even

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

UMass LowellBetterAmerican

UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9

AMERBig

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2

AMERSmall

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

AMERBig

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 1 player

UMLSmall

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUML betterAMER betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UMass Lowell

Guards

C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew

Forwards

V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UML71.7 #253

AMER72.0 #242

Points per possession

UML1.04 #272

AMER1.08 #190

Pace (possessions)

UML68.9 #189

AMER66.7 #289

Shooting

Effective FG%

UML49.8 #247

AMER51.5 #169

3-point %

UML32.2 #269

AMER33.0 #235

3-point attempt rate

UML31.3 #336

AMER46.5 #39

Free throw rate

UML34.9 #183

AMER28.7 #335

Possessions

Turnover rate

UML18.0 #269

AMER15.6 #110

Offensive rebound rate

UML32.7 #98

AMER26.9 #299

Assists per game

UML11.9 #294

AMER12.5 #248

Defense

Points allowed

UML77.4 #249

AMER72.7 #124

Points allowed per possession

UML1.13 #277

AMER1.09 #200

Opponent effective FG%

UML53.5 #284

AMER54.4 #313

Opponent 3-point %

UML34.6 #226

AMER35.5 #283

Turnovers forced

UML14.2 #329

AMER19.2 #40

Defensive rebound rate

UML70.7 #126

AMER70.6 #127

Steals per game

UML5.1 #326

AMER7.3 #100

Blocks per game

UML3.0 #222

AMER1.4 #363

UML		AMER
Scoring
71.7 #253	Points per game	72.0 #242
1.04 #272	Points per possession	1.08 #190
68.9 #189	Pace (possessions)	66.7 #289
Shooting
49.8 #247	Effective FG%	51.5 #169
32.2 #269	3-point %	33.0 #235
31.3 #336	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #39
34.9 #183	Free throw rate	28.7 #335
Possessions
18.0 #269	Turnover rate	15.6 #110
32.7 #98	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #299
11.9 #294	Assists per game	12.5 #248
Defense
77.4 #249	Points allowed	72.7 #124
1.13 #277	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #200
53.5 #284	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #313
34.6 #226	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #283
14.2 #329	Turnovers forced	19.2 #40
70.7 #126	Defensive rebound rate	70.6 #127
5.1 #326	Steals per game	7.3 #100
3.0 #222	Blocks per game	1.4 #363

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC69–91
Wvs UAlbany81–76
W@ Maine67–56
Lvs UMBC60–84
L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

UMass Lowell River Hawks at American University Eagles

What could decide it: AMER has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass Lowell

American

American has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UMass Lowell

American