1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. UNCO @ USD
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Northern Colorado Bears at San Diego Toreros

Jenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego
#219UNCON Colorado
@
#146USDSan Diego
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCOThis seasonUSD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USD 80–74 · win probability USD 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UNCO 3, USD 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCOBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCO 55.7 and allows 50.1; USD 51.2 and allows 54.7
Context
Schedule so far
UNCO has played the 303rd-hardest schedule, USD the 130th. A record against a soft schedule means less
USDBig
USD offense vs UNCO defense
Offense 127th of 366 against a defense 281st, on the model’s ratings
UNCOBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCO 27.2%, USD 28.1%. Defensive: UNCO 75.8%, USD 65.5%
USDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCO 15.5%, USD 17.6%. Forced: UNCO 12.4%, USD 18.8%
USDSmall
Home court
USD at home. This season: USD 0-0 at home, UNCO 0-0 away
UNCOSmall
Three-pointers
UNCO hits 35.0% and allows 30.7%; USD hits 34.6% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 41.5% and 43.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNCO plays 71.3 a game (60th fastest), USD 69.6 (139th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCO 28%, USD 7%. Transfers in: UNCO 4, USD 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
UNCO offense vs USD defense
Offense 167th of 366 against a defense 189th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCO 27.5, USD 25.8. Allowed: UNCO 38.8, USD 38.8
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USD -6.0—
Total—154.0—
Projected score—UNCO 74 · USD 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSD -3.4—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreUNCO 34.3 · USD 37.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: N Colorado 0, San Diego 2, even 3
N ColoradoBetterSan Diego
G L. Reynolds TR11.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
Even
G M. Worthy TR16.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 3 ast Score 72
G V. Delano6.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11
USDBig
G D. Hill TR14.2 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
G C. Tramble TR3.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 16
Even
G D. Stromer TR6.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 29
F K. Rayfield TR6.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 40
Even
F T. McMorris TR7.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 47
C E. Shields6.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
USDSmall
F A. Munoz TR12.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 56
N ColoradoBetterSan Diego
UNCO offense167th of 366 · -5.1
Even
USD defense189th of 366 · -4.4
UNCO defense281st of 366 · -7.0
USDBig
USD offense127th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
USDBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
USDSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNCO betterUSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Colorado
Guards
L. Reynolds33 min · TRV. Delano20 minC. Tramble12 min · TRA. Mawien8 minT. Braketa5 minC. BloggNew
Forwards
K. Rayfield20 min · TRA. Crawford5 min · TRM. ShareefNewD. PaineNew
Centers
E. Shields18 minH. Caldwell4 min
San Diego
Guards
M. Worthy35 min · TRD. Hill27 min · TRD. Stromer23 min · TRC. Versher2 minN. Del Bosque1 minB. RomanNew
Forwards
T. McMorris26 min · TRA. Munoz25 min · TRJ. Roberto Tanchyn19 min · TRS. Konneh13 min · TRA. Aviles11 minJ. HillNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCOUSD
Scoring
80.8 #51Points per game72.8 #228
1.14 #75Points per possession1.05 #251
71.3 #60Pace (possessions)69.6 #139
Shooting
55.7 #24Effective FG%51.2 #185
35.0 #1213-point %34.6 #141
41.5 #1403-point attempt rate43.7 #96
27.5 #348Free throw rate25.8 #358
Possessions
15.5 #103Turnover rate17.6 #242
27.2 #288Offensive rebound rate28.1 #262
15.8 #54Assists per game15.4 #68
Defense
78.1 #270Points allowed78.8 #290
1.09 #209Points allowed per possession1.13 #286
50.1 #106Opponent effective FG%54.7 #320
30.7 #28Opponent 3-point %32.7 #100
12.4 #363Turnovers forced18.8 #55
75.8 #6Defensive rebound rate65.5 #328
4.0 #364Steals per game7.7 #65
2.7 #273Blocks per game2.6 #294
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Colorado

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Montana89–95
  • Wvs Montana85–57
  • W@ Idaho76–67
  • L@ E Washington72–82
  • Wvs N Arizona78–77

A week or more of rest.

San Diego

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Seattle U56–58
  • Wvs LMU66–62
  • L@ Portland74–87
  • L@ Oregon St82–92
  • Lvs LMU65–77

A week or more of rest.