San José State Spartans at Utah Valley Wolverines: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETUCCU Center · at Utah Valley

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: San José St and Utah Valley
SJSU	This season	UVU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVU 77–72 · win probability UVU 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVU has more of the edges

SJSU 1, UVU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UVUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1; UVU 55.0 and allows 49.4

Context

Schedule so far

SJSU has played the 85th-hardest schedule, UVU the 254th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UVUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SJSU 29.3%, UVU 34.8%. Defensive: SJSU 63.5%, UVU 68.7%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SJSU plays 66.0 a game (315th fastest), UVU 70.2 (104th). Faster games mean more points

SJSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SJSU 15.1%, UVU 20.1%. Forced: SJSU 17.4%, UVU 21.3%

UVUSmall

Home court

UVU at home. This season: UVU 0-0 at home, SJSU 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SJSU 24%, UVU 44%. Transfers in: SJSU 6, UVU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%; UVU hits 34.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 38.3% and 32.9% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SJSU 33.4, UVU 38.2. Allowed: SJSU 35.4, UVU 39.1

Even

SJSU offense vs UVU defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 152nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

UVU offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 161st of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UVU -4.2	—
Total	—	148.8	—
Projected score	—	SJSU 72.3 · UVU 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVU -2.4	—
1H total	69.6	—
1H projected score	SJSU 33.6 · UVU 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	7-6	—
UVU LLLLL	13-18	42%	6-7	—

Venue/role: SJSU away; UVU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24
UVU OOUUO	17-14	55%	22-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
UVU	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San José St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs SEA	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs LBSU	W89–83LO
Dec 12	vs SUU	No recent meeting

Utah Valley

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ LBSU	W88–78WO
Dec 5	vs SAC	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ PAC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Utah Valley

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L L W W W L W W W W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L L W W W L W L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W W L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U U O O U O U O O O O O U O U U U O U U O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BOIS	L 77-101	+12.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 15	@FRES	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUCI	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 25	vsSDST	W 75-52	-1.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsSAM	W 89-45	-7.5	W +36.5	148.5	U 134
Dec 3	@SDSU	L 66-77	+8.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 6	@BGSU	W 82-71	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 153
Dec 10	vsIDST	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 13	vsUCSB	W 68-53	-5.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	vsWEB	W 90-74	-15.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsCBU	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@TAR	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 176
Jan 3	@ACU	L 68-85	-7.5	L −24.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 8	vsSUU	W 89-72	-18.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 10	vsUTU	W 92-76	-13.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 168
Jan 17	vsUTA	W 86-74	-11.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 21	@SUU	L 70-84	-12.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 154
Jan 24	@CBU	L 71-78	+1.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 29	@TAR	W 83-55	-6.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 138
Feb 5	vsACU	W 68-55	-14.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 123
Feb 7	vsUTA	W 81-60	-12.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 12	@UTU	L 77-81	-9.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 19	vsCBU	W 65-46	-8.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 21	@UTA	W 66-54	-6.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 26	vsTAR	W 79-72	-17.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsACU	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 5	@SUU	W 92-88	-9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 180
Mar 7	@UTU	W 104-101	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 205
Mar 13	vsUTA	W 67-65	-8.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 132
Mar 14	vsCBU	L 61-63	-2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 18	vsGW	L 78-79	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

−11.5

FRES

L 74-75

−5.5

UCI

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

W 75-52

+21.5

SAM

W 89-45

+36.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−2.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+9.5

IDST

W 73-69

−5.5

UCSB

W 68-53

+9.5

WEB

W 90-74

+0.5

CBU

W 73-66

−0.5

TAR

W 91-85

+0.5

ACU

L 68-85

−24.5

SUU

W 89-72

−1.5

UTU

W 92-76

+2.5

UTA

W 86-74

+0.5

SUU

L 70-84

−26.5

CBU

L 71-78

−5.5

TAR

W 83-55

+21.5

ACU

W 68-55

−1.5

UTA

W 81-60

+8.5

UTU

L 77-81

−13.5

CBU

W 65-46

+10.5

UTA

W 66-54

+5.5

TAR

W 79-72

−10.5

ACU

W 74-67

−7.5

SUU

W 92-88

−5.5

UTU

W 104-101

−5.5

UTA

W 67-65

−6.5

CBU

L 61-63

−4.5

L 78-79

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

+26.5

FRES

L 74-75

−7.5

UCI

W 79-72

+1.5

SDST

W 75-52

−24.5

SAM

W 89-45

−14.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−1.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+8.5

IDST

W 73-69

+0.5

UCSB

W 68-53

−25.5

WEB

W 90-74

+15.5

CBU

W 73-66

−9.5

TAR

W 91-85

+31.5

ACU

L 68-85

+13.5

SUU

W 89-72

+6.5

UTU

W 92-76

+18.5

UTA

W 86-74

+16.5

SUU

L 70-84

−6.5

CBU

L 71-78

+1.5

TAR

W 83-55

−16.5

ACU

W 68-55

−22.5

UTA

W 81-60

−0.5

UTU

L 77-81

+9.5

CBU

W 65-46

−31.5

UTA

W 66-54

−17.5

TAR

W 79-72

+9.5

ACU

W 74-67

+0.5

SUU

W 92-88

+29.5

UTU

W 104-101

+57.5

UTA

W 67-65

−4.5

CBU

L 61-63

−15.5

L 78-79

+4.5

over 17under 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah Valley has the better starters

Position by position: San José St 0, Utah Valley 1, even 4

San José StBetterUtah Valley

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

Even

G T. Davis TR7.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Housley4.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 5

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G S. Weatherspoon4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F I. Davis10.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

UVUSmall

F I. Hawkins7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 94

San José StBetterUtah Valley

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Even

UVU defense152nd of 366 · -3.3

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

Even

UVU offense161st of 366 · -4.8

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

SJSUBig

Backcourt-6.7 · 3 players

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

UVUSmall

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

SJSUSmall

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSJSU betterUVU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

Utah Valley

Guards

T. Davis27 min · TRB. Housley26 minS. Weatherspoon16 minD. Nelson8 min · TRJ. Barnes5 min · TRM. BabraitisNew

Forwards

I. Davis19 minI. Hawkins14 minT. Weaver8 minT. Medaris5 minO. MowafakNewD. DengNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SJSU70.8 #269

UVU77.7 #101

Points per possession

SJSU1.07 #203

UVU1.11 #126

Pace (possessions)

SJSU66.0 #315

UVU70.2 #104

Shooting

Effective FG%

SJSU49.7 #255

UVU55.0 #38

3-point %

SJSU35.3 #97

UVU34.0 #170

3-point attempt rate

SJSU38.3 #204

UVU32.9 #317

Free throw rate

SJSU33.4 #225

UVU38.2 #98

Possessions

Turnover rate

SJSU15.1 #77

UVU20.1 #349

Offensive rebound rate

SJSU29.3 #225

UVU34.8 #51

Assists per game

SJSU10.3 #353

UVU17.5 #14

Defense

Points allowed

SJSU79.2 #305

UVU70.8 #72

Points allowed per possession

SJSU1.20 #359

UVU1.01 #32

Opponent effective FG%

SJSU57.1 #359

UVU49.4 #78

Opponent 3-point %

SJSU36.0 #305

UVU35.2 #260

Turnovers forced

SJSU17.4 #123

UVU21.3 #7

Defensive rebound rate

SJSU63.5 #354

UVU68.7 #221

Steals per game

SJSU5.8 #259

UVU9.3 #6

Blocks per game

SJSU2.2 #333

UVU5.1 #14

SJSU		UVU
Scoring
70.8 #269	Points per game	77.7 #101
1.07 #203	Points per possession	1.11 #126
66.0 #315	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #104
Shooting
49.7 #255	Effective FG%	55.0 #38
35.3 #97	3-point %	34.0 #170
38.3 #204	3-point attempt rate	32.9 #317
33.4 #225	Free throw rate	38.2 #98
Possessions
15.1 #77	Turnover rate	20.1 #349
29.3 #225	Offensive rebound rate	34.8 #51
10.3 #353	Assists per game	17.5 #14
Defense
79.2 #305	Points allowed	70.8 #72
1.20 #359	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #32
57.1 #359	Opponent effective FG%	49.4 #78
36.0 #305	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #260
17.4 #123	Turnovers forced	21.3 #7
63.5 #354	Defensive rebound rate	68.7 #221
5.8 #259	Steals per game	9.3 #6
2.2 #333	Blocks per game	5.1 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

Utah Valley

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs G Washington78–79
Lvs CA Baptist61–63
Wvs UT Arlington67–65
W@ Utah Tech104–101
W@ Southern Utah92–88

A week or more of rest.

San José State Spartans at Utah Valley Wolverines

What could decide it: UVU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

San José St

Utah Valley

Utah Valley has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

San José St

Utah Valley