Utah Valley Wolverines at Long Beach State Beach: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 10:00 PM ETLBS Financial Credit Union Pyramid · at Long Beach St · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Utah Valley and Long Beach St
UVU	This season	LBSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVU 78–71 · win probability UVU 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVU has more of the edges

UVU 6, LBSU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UVUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UVU 55.0 and allows 49.4; LBSU 50.6 and allows 53.7

UVUBig

UVU offense vs LBSU defense

Offense 161st of 366 against a defense 300th, on the model’s ratings

UVUBig

LBSU offense vs UVU defense

Offense 285th of 366 against a defense 152nd, on the model’s ratings

UVUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UVU 38.2, LBSU 30.7. Allowed: UVU 39.1, LBSU 42.3

Context

Schedule so far

UVU has played the 254th-hardest schedule, LBSU the 152nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

UVUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UVU 44%, LBSU 8%. Transfers in: UVU 3, LBSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UVUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UVU 34.8%, LBSU 26.2%. Defensive: UVU 68.7%, LBSU 72.2%

LBSUSmall

Home court

LBSU at home. This season: LBSU 0-0 at home, UVU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: UVU plays 70.2 a game (104th fastest), LBSU 71.7 (46th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UVU 20.1%, LBSU 18.0%. Forced: UVU 21.3%, LBSU 17.5%

Even

Three-pointers

UVU hits 34.0% and allows 35.2%; LBSU hits 32.7% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 32.9% and 34.8% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UVU -6.6	—
Total	—	148.7	—
Projected score	—	UVU 77.6 · LBSU 71.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVU -4.0	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	UVU 36.8 · LBSU 32.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVU LLLLL	13-18	42%	4-9	—
LBSU WLLLW	16-14	53%	8-6	—

Venue/role: UVU away; LBSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVU OOUUO	17-14	55%	22-9
LBSU UOOUO	20-10	67%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVU	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
LBSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah Valley

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs SAC	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ PAC	No recent meeting

Long Beach St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ CSUF	L82–86LO
Dec 8	@ SJSU	L83–89WO
Dec 10	@ ILST	L80–82WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UVU 2–0 LBSUUVU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UVU has won the last 2 meetings · UVU 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2022-23	LBSU 78 @ UVU 88	UVU -2.5	UVU W
Nov 17, 2021-22	UVU 84 @ LBSU 78	LBSU -2.5	UVU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Utah Valley

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L L W W W L W W W W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L L W W W L W L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W W L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U U O O U O U O O O O O U O U U U O U U O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BOIS	L 77-101	+12.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 178
Nov 15	@FRES	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUCI	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 25	vsSDST	W 75-52	-1.5	W +21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsSAM	W 89-45	-7.5	W +36.5	148.5	U 134
Dec 3	@SDSU	L 66-77	+8.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 6	@BGSU	W 82-71	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 153
Dec 10	vsIDST	W 73-69	-9.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 13	vsUCSB	W 68-53	-5.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	vsWEB	W 90-74	-15.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsCBU	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@TAR	W 91-85	-5.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 176
Jan 3	@ACU	L 68-85	-7.5	L −24.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 8	vsSUU	W 89-72	-18.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 10	vsUTU	W 92-76	-13.5	W +2.5	149.5	O 168
Jan 17	vsUTA	W 86-74	-11.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 21	@SUU	L 70-84	-12.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 154
Jan 24	@CBU	L 71-78	+1.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 29	@TAR	W 83-55	-6.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 138
Feb 5	vsACU	W 68-55	-14.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 123
Feb 7	vsUTA	W 81-60	-12.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 12	@UTU	L 77-81	-9.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Feb 19	vsCBU	W 65-46	-8.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 21	@UTA	W 66-54	-6.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 26	vsTAR	W 79-72	-17.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsACU	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 141
Mar 5	@SUU	W 92-88	-9.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 180
Mar 7	@UTU	W 104-101	-8.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 205
Mar 13	vsUTA	W 67-65	-8.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 132
Mar 14	vsCBU	L 61-63	-2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 18	vsGW	L 78-79	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

−11.5

FRES

L 74-75

−5.5

UCI

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

W 75-52

+21.5

SAM

W 89-45

+36.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−2.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+9.5

IDST

W 73-69

−5.5

UCSB

W 68-53

+9.5

WEB

W 90-74

+0.5

CBU

W 73-66

−0.5

TAR

W 91-85

+0.5

ACU

L 68-85

−24.5

SUU

W 89-72

−1.5

UTU

W 92-76

+2.5

UTA

W 86-74

+0.5

SUU

L 70-84

−26.5

CBU

L 71-78

−5.5

TAR

W 83-55

+21.5

ACU

W 68-55

−1.5

UTA

W 81-60

+8.5

UTU

L 77-81

−13.5

CBU

W 65-46

+10.5

UTA

W 66-54

+5.5

TAR

W 79-72

−10.5

ACU

W 74-67

−7.5

SUU

W 92-88

−5.5

UTU

W 104-101

−5.5

UTA

W 67-65

−6.5

CBU

L 61-63

−4.5

L 78-79

−2.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOIS

L 77-101

+26.5

FRES

L 74-75

−7.5

UCI

W 79-72

+1.5

SDST

W 75-52

−24.5

SAM

W 89-45

−14.5

SDSU

L 66-77

−1.5

BGSU

W 82-71

+8.5

IDST

W 73-69

+0.5

UCSB

W 68-53

−25.5

WEB

W 90-74

+15.5

CBU

W 73-66

−9.5

TAR

W 91-85

+31.5

ACU

L 68-85

+13.5

SUU

W 89-72

+6.5

UTU

W 92-76

+18.5

UTA

W 86-74

+16.5

SUU

L 70-84

−6.5

CBU

L 71-78

+1.5

TAR

W 83-55

−16.5

ACU

W 68-55

−22.5

UTA

W 81-60

−0.5

UTU

L 77-81

+9.5

CBU

W 65-46

−31.5

UTA

W 66-54

−17.5

TAR

W 79-72

+9.5

ACU

W 74-67

+0.5

SUU

W 92-88

+29.5

UTU

W 104-101

+57.5

UTA

W 67-65

−4.5

CBU

L 61-63

−15.5

L 78-79

+4.5

over 17under 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Long Beach St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-10

67% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L W W L L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1067%

U O U O O O O O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O O U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SDSU	L 45-77	+25.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 8	@FRES	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	@PAC	L 66-69	+12.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsILST	L 80-82	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsMTST	L 72-78	+3.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 150
Nov 26	@PORT	L 73-93	+5.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 166
Nov 30	vsUSD	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 4	@UCSB	L 77-84	+13.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsUCSD	L 74-80	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 9	@SJSU	L 83-89	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 18	vsPEPP	W 81-78	-4.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 21	@ISU	L 60-91	+37.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 151
Jan 3	vsCP	W 74-66	-2.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@UCI	L 64-74	+10.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	vsCSUB	W 81-75	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCR	W 88-73	-5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	@CSUN	W 87-80	+7.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 22	@CSUF	L 61-71	+3.5	L −6.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	vsUCSB	L 71-74	+4.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCR	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsHAW	L 82-89	+8.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 5	@UCSD	L 74-77	+10.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 12	vsCSUF	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 14	@UCD	L 54-71	+4.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 19	vsUCI	L 58-69	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsCSUN	L 76-78	+2.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	@CP	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@CSUB	W 88-87	-3.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsUCD	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 7	@HAW	W 84-75	+14.5	W +23.5	150.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−6.5

FRES

L 62-82

−13.5

PAC

L 66-69

+9.5

ILST

L 80-82

+6.5

MTST

L 72-78

−2.5

PORT

L 73-93

−14.5

USD

W 76-72

+6.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+6.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+2.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+1.5

PEPP

W 81-78

−1.5

ISU

L 60-91

+6.5

W 74-66

+5.5

UCI

L 64-74

+0.5

CSUB

W 81-75

−0.5

UCR

W 88-73

+9.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+14.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+1.5

UCR

L 61-71

−11.5

HAW

L 82-89

+1.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+7.5

CSUF

L 82-86

−6.5

UCD

L 54-71

−12.5

UCI

L 58-69

−5.5

CSUN

L 76-78

+0.5

L 92-102

−4.5

CSUB

W 88-87

−2.5

UCD

L 70-76

−4.5

HAW

W 84-75

+23.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−13.5

FRES

L 62-82

+1.5

PAC

L 66-69

−6.5

ILST

L 80-82

+20.5

MTST

L 72-78

+9.5

PORT

L 73-93

+17.5

USD

W 76-72

+0.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+19.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+8.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+30.5

PEPP

W 81-78

+17.5

ISU

L 60-91

+1.5

W 74-66

−22.5

UCI

L 64-74

−4.5

CSUB

W 81-75

+13.5

UCR

W 88-73

+19.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+8.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−28.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+0.5

UCR

L 61-71

−12.5

HAW

L 82-89

+26.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+6.5

CSUF

L 82-86

+11.5

UCD

L 54-71

−24.5

UCI

L 58-69

−17.5

CSUN

L 76-78

−3.5

L 92-102

+31.5

CSUB

W 88-87

+22.5

UCD

L 70-76

−3.5

HAW

W 84-75

+8.5

over 20under 10avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Utah Valley has the better starters

Position by position: Utah Valley 2, Long Beach St 1, even 2

Utah ValleyBetterLong Beach St

G T. Davis TR7.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

Even

G J. Payne TR6.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 40

G B. Housley4.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 5

LBSUSmall

G Y. Sissoko TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 32

G S. Weatherspoon4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

No call

G C. Jones3.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

F I. Davis10.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83

UVUBig

F G. Brcic TR4.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 39

F I. Hawkins7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 94

UVUBig

C N. Amenhauser TR5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 57

Utah ValleyBetterLong Beach St

UVU offense161st of 366 · -4.8

UVUBig

LBSU defense300th of 366 · -7.7

UVU defense152nd of 366 · -3.3

UVUBig

LBSU offense285th of 366 · -8.8

Backcourt-6.7 · 3 players

LBSUBig

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

UVUBig

Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

UVUSmall

Bench-1.9 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestUVU betterLBSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Utah Valley

Guards

T. Davis27 min · TRB. Housley26 minS. Weatherspoon16 minD. Nelson8 min · TRJ. Barnes5 min · TRM. BabraitisNew

Forwards

I. Davis19 minI. Hawkins14 minT. Weaver8 minT. Medaris5 minO. MowafakNewD. DengNew

Long Beach St

Guards

J. Payne22 min · TRY. Sissoko11 min · TRC. Jones10 minJ. TenganNewJ. GrayNewM. AdamsNew

Forwards

G. Brcic17 min · TRK. Smith8 min · TRJ. Chaikovsky6 minB. WrightNewH. LauNewM. VanlaninghamNew

Centers

N. Amenhauser12 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UVU77.7 #101

LBSU73.2 #219

Points per possession

UVU1.11 #126

LBSU1.02 #303

Pace (possessions)

UVU70.2 #104

LBSU71.7 #46

Shooting

Effective FG%

UVU55.0 #38

LBSU50.6 #207

3-point %

UVU34.0 #170

LBSU32.7 #245

3-point attempt rate

UVU32.9 #317

LBSU34.8 #280

Free throw rate

UVU38.2 #98

LBSU30.7 #287

Possessions

Turnover rate

UVU20.1 #349

LBSU18.0 #271

Offensive rebound rate

UVU34.8 #51

LBSU26.2 #315

Assists per game

UVU17.5 #14

LBSU12.3 #264

Defense

Points allowed

UVU70.8 #72

LBSU79.0 #297

Points allowed per possession

UVU1.01 #32

LBSU1.10 #220

Opponent effective FG%

UVU49.4 #78

LBSU53.7 #290

Opponent 3-point %

UVU35.2 #260

LBSU34.4 #212

Turnovers forced

UVU21.3 #7

LBSU17.5 #119

Defensive rebound rate

UVU68.7 #221

LBSU72.2 #60

Steals per game

UVU9.3 #6

LBSU6.5 #173

Blocks per game

UVU5.1 #14

LBSU2.9 #250

UVU		LBSU
Scoring
77.7 #101	Points per game	73.2 #219
1.11 #126	Points per possession	1.02 #303
70.2 #104	Pace (possessions)	71.7 #46
Shooting
55.0 #38	Effective FG%	50.6 #207
34.0 #170	3-point %	32.7 #245
32.9 #317	3-point attempt rate	34.8 #280
38.2 #98	Free throw rate	30.7 #287
Possessions
20.1 #349	Turnover rate	18.0 #271
34.8 #51	Offensive rebound rate	26.2 #315
17.5 #14	Assists per game	12.3 #264
Defense
70.8 #72	Points allowed	79.0 #297
1.01 #32	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #220
49.4 #78	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #290
35.2 #260	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #212
21.3 #7	Turnovers forced	17.5 #119
68.7 #221	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #60
9.3 #6	Steals per game	6.5 #173
5.1 #14	Blocks per game	2.9 #250

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Utah Valley

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs G Washington78–79
Lvs CA Baptist61–63
Wvs UT Arlington67–65
W@ Utah Tech104–101
W@ Southern Utah92–88

A week or more of rest.

Long Beach St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ Hawai'i84–75
Lvs UC Davis70–76
W@ Bakersfield88–87
L@ Cal Poly92–102
Lvs CSU Northridge76–78

A week or more of rest.

Utah Valley Wolverines at Long Beach State Beach

What could decide it: UVU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Utah Valley

Long Beach St

Utah Valley has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Utah Valley

Long Beach St