UC Riverside Highlanders at UC Irvine Anteaters: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 10:00 PM ETBren Events Center · at UC Irvine · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UC Riverside and UC Irvine
UCR	This season	UCI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCI 78–67 · win probability UCI 84%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCI has more of the edges

UCR 0, UCI 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCIBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCR 35.0, UCI 36.0. Allowed: UCR 40.9, UCI 26.7

UCIBig

UCR offense vs UCI defense

Offense 265th of 366 against a defense 126th, on the model’s ratings

UCIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCR 48.9 and allows 52.7; UCI 49.5 and allows 45.9

UCIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCR 19.0%, UCI 17.8%. Forced: UCR 15.5%, UCI 18.8%

UCISmall

UCI offense vs UCR defense

Offense 187th of 366 against a defense 296th, on the model’s ratings

UCISmall

Home court

UCI at home. This season: UCI 0-0 at home, UCR 0-0 away

UCISmall

Three-pointers

UCR hits 31.6% and allows 33.5%; UCI hits 33.6% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 38.3% and 28.0% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCR 21%, UCI 44%. Transfers in: UCR 5, UCI 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

UCR has played the 182nd-hardest schedule, UCI the 215th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCR 27.8%, UCI 30.9%. Defensive: UCR 70.0%, UCI 68.8%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: UCR plays 71.0 a game (74th fastest), UCI 71.5 (51st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCI -11.3	—
Total	—	145.3	—
Projected score	—	UCR 67 · UCI 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCI -6.6	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	UCR 30.7 · UCI 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCR WLLWL	15-15	50%	9-9	—
UCI WWWLL	17-16	52%	6-9	—

Venue/role: UCR away; UCI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCR OOUOO	16-14	53%	8-22
UCI OOOUU	12-21	36%	21-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
UCI	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UC Riverside

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs CBU	L57–80LU
Dec 12	@ CAL	No recent meeting

UC Irvine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs UCSD	L69–71LU
Dec 11	vs UNI	L69–70LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UCR 2–8 UCIUCI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UCI has won the last 2 meetings · UCR 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 22, 2025-26	UCI 80 @ UCR 66	UCR +8.5	UCI W
Dec 4, 2025-26	UCR 60 @ UCI 73	UCI -13.5	UCR W
Jan 23, 2024-25	UCI 80 @ UCR 84	UCR +6.5	UCR W
Jan 4, 2024-25	UCR 57 @ UCI 81	UCI -8.5	UCI W
Feb 10, 2023-24	UCI 78 @ UCR 88	UCR +8.5	UCR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Riverside

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

W L L L W W L L W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

W W L L W W L W W L W L L W W L W L W W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O U O O O U O U O O U U U O U O U U O U O U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	vsUND	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 18	@CBU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	@USD	W 85-71	+7.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsGRAM	W 83-74	-3.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 157
Nov 29	@UTU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 4	@UCI	L 60-73	+13.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 6	@CP	W 88-84	+5.5	W +9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@BYU	L 53-100	+33.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 20	@STMN	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 23	@UCLA	L 65-97	+24.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 1	vsHAW	L 45-88	+8.5	L −34.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 8	@CSUB	L 66-67	+3.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsUCSD	L 66-69	+10.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	@LBSU	L 73-88	+5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	vsCSUF	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 22	vsUCI	L 66-80	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 146
Jan 24	@UCD	L 66-74	+9.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Jan 29	vsLBSU	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsCP	L 87-94	-1.5	L −8.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 5	@CSUF	L 72-78	+5.5	L −0.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 7	@CSUN	L 74-88	+10.5	L −3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 12	vsUCSB	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 14	@UCSD	L 66-72	+11.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 19	vsCSUB	W 93-65	-6.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsUCD	L 73-78	+2.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 26	@UCSB	L 59-70	+10.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsCSUN	W 95-84	+4.5	W +15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@HAW	L 74-93	+12.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

UND

L 74-76

−5.5

CBU

L 57-80

−10.5

USD

W 85-71

+21.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+5.5

UTU

L 69-77

−2.5

UCI

L 60-73

+0.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−13.5

STMN

L 78-92

+0.5

UCLA

L 65-97

−7.5

HAW

L 45-88

−34.5

CSUB

L 66-67

+2.5

UCSD

L 66-69

+7.5

LBSU

L 73-88

−9.5

CSUF

W 81-72

+12.5

UCI

L 66-80

−5.5

UCD

L 66-74

+1.5

LBSU

W 71-61

+11.5

L 87-94

−8.5

CSUF

L 72-78

−0.5

CSUN

L 74-88

−3.5

UCSB

L 68-76

−1.5

UCSD

L 66-72

+5.5

CSUB

W 93-65

+21.5

UCD

L 73-78

−2.5

UCSB

L 59-70

−0.5

CSUN

W 95-84

+15.5

HAW

L 74-93

−6.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

UND

L 74-76

+1.5

CBU

L 57-80

−5.5

USD

W 85-71

+3.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+12.5

UTU

L 69-77

+0.5

UCI

L 60-73

−9.5

W 88-84

+9.5

BYU

L 53-100

−2.5

STMN

L 78-92

+17.5

UCLA

L 65-97

+13.5

HAW

L 45-88

−16.5

CSUB

L 66-67

−14.5

UCSD

L 66-69

−14.5

LBSU

L 73-88

+19.5

CSUF

W 81-72

−4.5

UCI

L 66-80

+3.5

UCD

L 66-74

−9.5

LBSU

W 71-61

−12.5

L 87-94

+18.5

CSUF

L 72-78

−6.5

CSUN

L 74-88

+1.5

UCSB

L 68-76

−1.5

UCSD

L 66-72

−9.5

CSUB

W 93-65

+7.5

UCD

L 73-78

+1.5

UCSB

L 59-70

−16.5

CSUN

W 95-84

+20.5

HAW

L 74-93

+16.5

over 16under 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Irvine

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-21

36% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

L W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L L W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1652%

L L L L L W W L W L W W L W L W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2136%

U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCBU	L 61-69	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsWEB	W 79-70	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	@UVU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 22	vsUNI	L 69-70	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsNMSU	L 45-57	-2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 102
Nov 26	vsSDST	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 116
Nov 30	@SJSU	W 72-63	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 4	vsUCR	W 73-60	-13.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 6	vsCSUN	W 85-71	-7.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 19	vsBEL	L 58-84	-1.5	L −27.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsNDSU	W 74-73	+1.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	vsNORF	W 89-70	-11.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 1	@CSUB	W 81-77	-11.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@CSUF	W 86-64	-3.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 150
Jan 8	vsLBSU	W 74-64	-10.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	@HAW	L 66-67	+4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 17	@UCD	L 72-75	-3.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 147
Jan 22	@UCR	W 80-66	-8.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 146
Jan 24	@UCSD	W 61-59	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsHAW	W 87-76	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 163
Feb 5	vsCSUB	W 78-62	-16.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 7	@UCSB	L 79-84	+2.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 163
Feb 12	@CP	L 73-79	-5.5	L −11.5	161.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsCSUF	W 86-65	-7.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 19	@LBSU	W 69-58	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsUCSD	L 69-71	-3.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@CSUN	W 68-67	+1.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsUCSB	W 64-60	-3.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 5	vsCP	W 107-85	-9.5	W +12.5	160.5	O 192
Mar 7	vsUCD	W 79-69	-7.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Mar 13	vsCSUN	W 93-78	-3.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 14	vsHAW	L 64-71	-1.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 135
Mar 17	vsUNLV	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−16.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

−4.5

UNI

L 69-70

−3.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−14.5

SDST

W 64-52

+9.5

SJSU

W 72-63

+5.5

UCR

W 73-60

−0.5

CSUN

W 85-71

+6.5

BEL

L 58-84

−27.5

NDSU

W 74-73

+2.5

NORF

W 89-70

+7.5

CSUB

W 81-77

−7.5

CSUF

W 86-64

+18.5

LBSU

W 74-64

−0.5

HAW

L 66-67

+3.5

UCD

L 72-75

−6.5

UCR

W 80-66

+5.5

UCSD

W 61-59

+4.5

HAW

W 87-76

+9.5

CSUB

W 78-62

−0.5

UCSB

L 79-84

−2.5

L 73-79

−11.5

CSUF

W 86-65

+13.5

LBSU

W 69-58

+5.5

UCSD

L 69-71

−5.5

CSUN

W 68-67

+2.5

UCSB

W 64-60

+0.5

W 107-85

+12.5

UCD

W 79-69

+2.5

CSUN

W 93-78

+11.5

HAW

L 64-71

−8.5

UNLV

L 72-75

−1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−17.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

+1.5

UNI

L 69-70

+0.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−37.5

SDST

W 64-52

−28.5

SJSU

W 72-63

−4.5

UCR

W 73-60

−9.5

CSUN

W 85-71

+3.5

BEL

L 58-84

−8.5

NDSU

W 74-73

+0.5

NORF

W 89-70

+22.5

CSUB

W 81-77

+14.5

CSUF

W 86-64

−10.5

LBSU

W 74-64

−4.5

HAW

L 66-67

−7.5

UCD

L 72-75

−1.5

UCR

W 80-66

+3.5

UCSD

W 61-59

−26.5

HAW

W 87-76

+18.5

CSUB

W 78-62

−4.5

UCSB

L 79-84

+21.5

L 73-79

−9.5

CSUF

W 86-65

−3.5

LBSU

W 69-58

−17.5

UCSD

L 69-71

−3.5

CSUN

W 68-67

−18.5

UCSB

W 64-60

−14.5

W 107-85

+31.5

UCD

W 79-69

+3.5

CSUN

W 93-78

+18.5

HAW

L 64-71

−6.5

UNLV

L 72-75

−6.5

over 12under 21avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Irvine has the better starters

Position by position: UC Riverside 0, UC Irvine 3, even 2

UC RiversideBetterUC Irvine

G D. Perteete6.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

Even

G T. Isaac6 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17

G J. Evans TR5.8 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 25

UCIBig

G N. Cooper TR11.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 89

G B. Waller4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

UCISmall

G J. Jester6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 63

G D. Malcolm TR5.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 87

Even

F H. Carrington7.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84

F D. Washington TR2.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 0

UCISmall

F E. Chol4.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 28

UC RiversideBetterUC Irvine

UCR offense265th of 366 · -8.1

UCIBig

UCI defense126th of 366 · -2.3

UCR defense296th of 366 · -7.4

UCISmall

UCI offense187th of 366 · -5.8

Backcourt-2.7 · 4 players

UCISmall

Backcourt-0.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player

UCISmall

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

Bench+0.3 · 2 players

UCRSmall

Bench-1.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUCR betterUCI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UC Riverside

Guards

D. Perteete28 minJ. Evans15 min · TRB. Waller14 minD. Malcolm14 min · TRT. Duckett7 min · TRE. ReaganNew

Forwards

D. Washington11 min · TRT. Parrish-TillmanNewA. McKinneyNewJ. MajokNew

Centers

A. Oyeadier2 min · TR

UC Irvine

Guards

T. Isaac27 minN. Cooper25 min · TRJ. Jester16 minB. Egbo4 minL. RedfieldNewT. LeeNew

Forwards

H. Carrington17 minE. Chol17 minM. HodgesNewP. SpeesNewD. BenthoNew

Centers

N. Emeneke8 minO. Rioux2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCR71.6 #258

UCI74.2 #188

Points per possession

UCR1.01 #317

UCI1.04 #278

Pace (possessions)

UCR71.0 #74

UCI71.5 #51

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCR48.9 #291

UCI49.5 #268

3-point %

UCR31.6 #301

UCI33.6 #191

3-point attempt rate

UCR38.3 #203

UCI28.0 #359

Free throw rate

UCR35.0 #177

UCI36.0 #152

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCR19.0 #321

UCI17.8 #257

Offensive rebound rate

UCR27.8 #275

UCI30.9 #166

Assists per game

UCR12.3 #262

UCI14.8 #103

Defense

Points allowed

UCR79.1 #303

UCI69.4 #54

Points allowed per possession

UCR1.11 #256

UCI0.97 #7

Opponent effective FG%

UCR52.7 #252

UCI45.9 #9

Opponent 3-point %

UCR33.5 #159

UCI33.7 #167

Turnovers forced

UCR15.5 #250

UCI18.8 #56

Defensive rebound rate

UCR70.0 #159

UCI68.8 #213

Steals per game

UCR5.1 #325

UCI7.8 #51

Blocks per game

UCR4.1 #67

UCI5.8 #5

UCR		UCI
Scoring
71.6 #258	Points per game	74.2 #188
1.01 #317	Points per possession	1.04 #278
71.0 #74	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #51
Shooting
48.9 #291	Effective FG%	49.5 #268
31.6 #301	3-point %	33.6 #191
38.3 #203	3-point attempt rate	28.0 #359
35.0 #177	Free throw rate	36.0 #152
Possessions
19.0 #321	Turnover rate	17.8 #257
27.8 #275	Offensive rebound rate	30.9 #166
12.3 #262	Assists per game	14.8 #103
Defense
79.1 #303	Points allowed	69.4 #54
1.11 #256	Points allowed per possession	0.97 #7
52.7 #252	Opponent effective FG%	45.9 #9
33.5 #159	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #167
15.5 #250	Turnovers forced	18.8 #56
70.0 #159	Defensive rebound rate	68.8 #213
5.1 #325	Steals per game	7.8 #51
4.1 #67	Blocks per game	5.8 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Riverside

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Hawai'i74–93
Wvs CSU Northridge95–84
L@ Santa Barbara59–70
Lvs UC Davis73–78
Wvs Bakersfield93–65

A week or more of rest.

UC Irvine

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNLV72–75
Lvs Hawai'i64–71
Wvs CSU Northridge93–78
Wvs UC Davis79–69
Wvs Cal Poly107–85

A week or more of rest.

UC Riverside Highlanders at UC Irvine Anteaters

What could decide it: UCI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Riverside

UC Irvine

UC Irvine has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UC Riverside

UC Irvine