Cal Poly Mustangs at Cal State Northridge Matadors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 10:00 PM ETPremier America Credit Union Arena · at CSU Northridge · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cal Poly and CSU Northridge
CP	This season	CSUN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSUN 84–84 · win probability CSUN 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 167.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSUN has more of the edges

CP 2, CSUN 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CSUNBig

CSUN offense vs CP defense

Offense 140th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings

CPBig

CP offense vs CSUN defense

Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 271st, on the model’s ratings

CPBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CP 100%, CSUN 18%. Transfers in: CP 0, CSUN 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CSUNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CP 30.0%, CSUN 31.9%. Defensive: CP 70.4%, CSUN 73.4%

CSUNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CP 19.8%, CSUN 17.5%. Forced: CP 16.3%, CSUN 16.5%

CSUNSmall

Home court

CSUN at home. This season: CSUN 0-0 at home, CP 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

CP has played the 170th-hardest schedule, CSUN the 219th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CSUNSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CP 51.5 and allows 53.8; CSUN 51.3 and allows 51.6

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CP 34.9, CSUN 34.2. Allowed: CP 34.1, CSUN 34.3

Even

Three-pointers

CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%; CSUN hits 32.4% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 52.6% and 33.6% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 76 possessions: CP plays 76.4 a game (1st fastest), CSUN 75.6 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CSUN -0.5	—
Total	—	167.5	—
Projected score	—	CP 83.5 · CSUN 84

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSUN -0.2	—
1H total	78.2	—
1H projected score	CP 39 · CSUN 39.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CP WLLWW	17-14	55%	9-8	—
CSUN LLLWL	14-18	44%	8-5	—

Venue/role: CP away; CSUN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CP OUOOU	18-13	58%	12-19
CSUN OOUUO	19-13	59%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CP	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
CSUN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cal Poly

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ UCSB	W89–79WO
Dec 12	vs MONT	L82–90LO
Dec 15	@ COLO	No recent meeting

CSU Northridge

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ CSUB	W86–84LO
Dec 9	@ FRES	W89–87LO
Dec 12	vs UND	W93–85WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CP 1–9 CSUNCSUN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CSUN has won the last 7 meetings · CP 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 5, 2025-26	CSUN 97 @ CP 96	CP +2.5	CP W
Jan 8, 2025-26	CP 90 @ CSUN 95	CSUN -6.5	CP W
Feb 15, 2024-25	CP 85 @ CSUN 89	CSUN -9.5	CP W
Dec 7, 2024-25	CSUN 102 @ CP 91	CP +2.5	CSUN W
Feb 8, 2023-24	CP 65 @ CSUN 78	CSUN -10.5	CSUN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cal Poly

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W L L W L L W L L L L W L L W L L L W W L L W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W W L W L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U O O O O U O O O O U U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 14	@MONT	L 82-90	+7.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 172
Nov 20	@UTAH	W 92-85	+14.5	W +21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 24	@NAU	L 87-93	-1.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsSEMO	L 68-84	+1.5	L −14.5	170.5	U 152
Dec 4	@CSUF	W 94-91	+1.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 185
Dec 6	vsUCR	L 84-88	-5.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 16	vsMTST	L 80-83	+2.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 163
Dec 19	@UCLA	L 87-108	+24.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 195
Dec 21	vsIDHO	L 80-83	+1.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 163
Jan 1	vsUCSD	W 67-65	+8.5	W +10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	@LBSU	L 66-74	+2.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@CSUN	L 90-95	+6.5	W +1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	vsUCD	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	168.5	U 162
Jan 15	vsHAW	L 66-86	+5.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 152
Jan 22	@UCSB	L 67-107	+8.5	L −31.5	159.5	O 174
Jan 24	vsCSUF	L 78-93	+1.5	L −13.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 29	@CSUB	W 104-79	-1.5	W +23.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 31	@UCR	W 94-87	+1.5	W +8.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 5	vsCSUN	L 96-97	+2.5	W +1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	@UCD	L 58-67	+5.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 125
Feb 12	vsUCI	W 79-73	+5.5	W +11.5	161.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUCSB	W 89-79	+3.5	W +13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 19	@HAW	W 86-75	+11.5	W +22.5	160.5	O 161
Feb 26	vsLBSU	W 102-92	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@UCSD	L 64-80	+7.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@UCI	L 85-107	+9.5	L −12.5	160.5	O 192
Mar 7	vsCSUB	W 108-76	-8.5	W +23.5	174.5	O 184
Mar 11	vsUCSD	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

MONT

L 82-90

−0.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+21.5

NAU

L 87-93

−7.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−14.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+4.5

UCR

L 84-88

−9.5

MTST

L 80-83

−0.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+3.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−1.5

UCSD

W 67-65

+10.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+1.5

UCD

W 84-78

+7.5

HAW

L 66-86

−14.5

UCSB

L 67-107

−31.5

CSUF

L 78-93

−13.5

CSUB

W 104-79

+23.5

UCR

W 94-87

+8.5

CSUN

L 96-97

+1.5

UCD

L 58-67

−3.5

UCI

W 79-73

+11.5

UCSB

W 89-79

+13.5

HAW

W 86-75

+22.5

LBSU

W 102-92

+4.5

UCSD

L 64-80

−8.5

UCI

L 85-107

−12.5

CSUB

W 108-76

+23.5

UCSD

L 69-72

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

MONT

L 82-90

+3.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+9.5

NAU

L 87-93

+15.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−18.5

CSUF

W 94-91

+7.5

UCR

L 84-88

+9.5

MTST

L 80-83

+3.5

UCLA

L 87-108

+33.5

IDHO

L 80-83

−4.5

UCSD

W 67-65

−42.5

LBSU

L 66-74

−22.5

CSUN

L 90-95

+9.5

UCD

W 84-78

−6.5

HAW

L 66-86

−8.5

UCSB

L 67-107

+14.5

CSUF

L 78-93

−2.5

CSUB

W 104-79

+21.5

UCR

W 94-87

+18.5

CSUN

L 96-97

+15.5

UCD

L 58-67

−44.5

UCI

W 79-73

−9.5

UCSB

W 89-79

+8.5

HAW

W 86-75

+0.5

LBSU

W 102-92

+31.5

UCSD

L 64-80

−20.5

UCI

L 85-107

+31.5

CSUB

W 108-76

+9.5

UCSD

L 69-72

−21.5

over 18under 13avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

CSU Northridge

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-13

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1359%

U O O O U U U O O O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsIDST	L 50-82	+1.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 4	vsCSUB	W 87-66	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCI	L 71-85	+7.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsFRES	W 89-87	-3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 13	@DEL	W 88-66	+1.5	W +23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 22	vsSAC	W 100-88	-8.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 188
Dec 27	@STAN	L 80-88	+15.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 168
Jan 1	@UCD	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsUCSB	W 74-65	-2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsCP	W 95-90	-6.5	L −1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	@CSUF	L 79-86	+1.5	L −5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCSD	W 84-79	+7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	vsLBSU	L 80-87	-7.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 24	@HAW	L 68-89	+10.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUCD	W 94-78	-3.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsUCSD	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	@CP	W 97-96	-2.5	L −1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	vsUCR	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsHAW	W 84-60	+2.5	W +26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	@UCSB	W 85-83	+5.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@LBSU	W 78-76	-2.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	vsUCI	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UCR	L 84-95	-4.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@CSUB	W 86-84	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsCSUF	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCSD	W 80-70	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 13	vsUCI	L 78-93	+3.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

IDST

L 50-82

−30.5

CSUB

W 87-66

+15.5

UCI

L 71-85

−6.5

FRES

W 89-87

−1.5

DEL

W 88-66

+23.5

SAC

W 100-88

+3.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

−5.5

UCSB

W 74-65

+6.5

W 95-90

−1.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−5.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+12.5

LBSU

L 80-87

−14.5

HAW

L 68-89

−10.5

UCD

W 94-78

+12.5

UCSD

W 81-64

+18.5

W 97-96

−1.5

UCR

W 88-74

+3.5

HAW

W 84-60

+26.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+7.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−0.5

UCI

L 67-68

−2.5

UCR

L 84-95

−15.5

CSUB

W 86-84

−6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−18.5

UCSD

W 80-70

+11.5

UCI

L 78-93

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

IDST

L 50-82

−16.5

CSUB

W 87-66

−2.5

UCI

L 71-85

+3.5

FRES

W 89-87

+14.5

DEL

W 88-66

+9.5

SAC

W 100-88

+23.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

+6.5

UCSB

W 74-65

−17.5

W 95-90

+9.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−8.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+3.5

LBSU

L 80-87

+8.5

HAW

L 68-89

−1.5

UCD

W 94-78

+8.5

UCSD

W 81-64

−15.5

W 97-96

+15.5

UCR

W 88-74

+1.5

HAW

W 84-60

−18.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+11.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−3.5

UCI

L 67-68

−18.5

UCR

L 84-95

+20.5

CSUB

W 86-84

+6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−3.5

UCSD

W 80-70

−3.5

UCI

L 78-93

+18.5

over 19under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cal Poly has the better starters

Position by position: Cal Poly 2, CSU Northridge 1, even 2

Cal PolyBetterCSU Northridge

G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96

CPSmall

G J. Davis16.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 7.5 ast Score 71

G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58

CPSmall

G C. Smith TR7.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21

Even

G M. Ballew TR8.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15

CSUNSmall

G B. Hicks TR8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 49

G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33

Even

G K. Ekissi TR4.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 29

Cal PolyBetterCSU Northridge

CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2

CPBig

CSUN defense271st of 366 · -6.8

CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2

CSUNBig

CSUN offense140th of 366 · -4.2

Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players

CPBig

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

CSUNSmall

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCP betterCSUN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cal Poly

Guards

H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min

Forwards

A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew

CSU Northridge

Guards

J. Davis34 minC. Smith30 min · TRM. Ballew23 min · TRB. Hicks22 min · TRK. Ekissi17 min · TRG. Gazarian2 min

Forwards

J. Martin7 min · TRB. OmotNew

Centers

E. Stephen15 min · TRL. Niang8 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CP81.3 #42

CSUN80.6 #54

Points per possession

CP1.06 #222

CSUN1.06 #219

Pace (possessions)

CP76.4 #1

CSUN75.6 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

CP51.5 #170

CSUN51.3 #183

3-point %

CP33.0 #228

CSUN32.4 #260

3-point attempt rate

CP52.6 #5

CSUN33.6 #308

Free throw rate

CP34.9 #182

CSUN34.2 #200

Possessions

Turnover rate

CP19.8 #345

CSUN17.5 #237

Offensive rebound rate

CP30.0 #202

CSUN31.9 #130

Assists per game

CP13.3 #194

CSUN16.7 #31

Defense

Points allowed

CP85.3 #360

CSUN81.3 #336

Points allowed per possession

CP1.12 #274

CSUN1.08 #153

Opponent effective FG%

CP53.8 #292

CSUN51.6 #191

Opponent 3-point %

CP34.7 #231

CSUN34.4 #210

Turnovers forced

CP16.3 #203

CSUN16.5 #187

Defensive rebound rate

CP70.4 #141

CSUN73.4 #26

Steals per game

CP6.4 #188

CSUN6.6 #166

Blocks per game

CP2.2 #337

CSUN2.8 #259

CP		CSUN
Scoring
81.3 #42	Points per game	80.6 #54
1.06 #222	Points per possession	1.06 #219
76.4 #1	Pace (possessions)	75.6 #2
Shooting
51.5 #170	Effective FG%	51.3 #183
33.0 #228	3-point %	32.4 #260
52.6 #5	3-point attempt rate	33.6 #308
34.9 #182	Free throw rate	34.2 #200
Possessions
19.8 #345	Turnover rate	17.5 #237
30.0 #202	Offensive rebound rate	31.9 #130
13.3 #194	Assists per game	16.7 #31
Defense
85.3 #360	Points allowed	81.3 #336
1.12 #274	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #153
53.8 #292	Opponent effective FG%	51.6 #191
34.7 #231	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #210
16.3 #203	Turnovers forced	16.5 #187
70.4 #141	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #26
6.4 #188	Steals per game	6.6 #166
2.2 #337	Blocks per game	2.8 #259

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC San Diego69–72
Wvs Bakersfield108–76
L@ UC Irvine85–107
L@ UC San Diego64–80
Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

CSU Northridge

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Irvine78–93
Wvs UC San Diego80–70
Lvs Fullerton77–90
W@ Bakersfield86–84
L@ UC Riverside84–95

A week or more of rest.

Cal Poly Mustangs at Cal State Northridge Matadors

What could decide it: CSUN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cal Poly

CSU Northridge

Cal Poly has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cal Poly

CSU Northridge