UC Santa Barbara Gauchos at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 9:30 PM ETIcardo Center · at Bakersfield · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Santa Barbara and Bakersfield
UCSB	This season	CSUB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSB 80–70 · win probability UCSB 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSB has more of the edges

UCSB 6, CSUB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCSBBig

Three-pointers

UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%; CSUB hits 29.0% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 44.1% and 28.9% of their shots

UCSBBig

UCSB offense vs CSUB defense

Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 348th, on the model’s ratings

UCSBBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6; CSUB 45.7 and allows 54.0

UCSBBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCSB 31.0%, CSUB 30.4%. Defensive: UCSB 74.5%, CSUB 64.4%

UCSBBig

CSUB offense vs UCSB defense

Offense 287th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UCSB plays 68.2 a game (218th fastest), CSUB 72.7 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

UCSBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCSB 53%, CSUB 10%. Transfers in: UCSB 5, CSUB 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CSUBSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCSB 36.8, CSUB 42.2. Allowed: UCSB 42.4, CSUB 42.6

CSUBSmall

Home court

CSUB at home. This season: CSUB 0-0 at home, UCSB 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCSB 18.8%, CSUB 18.8%. Forced: UCSB 16.8%, CSUB 17.9%

Context

Schedule so far

UCSB has played the 203rd-hardest schedule, CSUB the 211th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCSB -9.9	—
Total	—	150.3	—
Projected score	—	UCSB 80.1 · CSUB 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCSB -6.0	—
1H total	70.3	—
1H projected score	UCSB 38.1 · CSUB 32.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCSB WWLLL	12-18	40%	3-10	—
CSUB LWWWL	12-18	40%	6-9	—

Venue/role: UCSB away; CSUB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCSB OUUUO	16-14	53%	16-14
CSUB OOOOO	16-14	53%	6-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCSB	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CSUB	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Santa Barbara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs CP	L79–89LO
Dec 12	vs YALE	No recent meeting

Bakersfield

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs CSUN	L84–86WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UCSB 10–0 CSUBUCSB leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UCSB has won the last 10 meetings · UCSB 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 15, 2025-26	UCSB 75 @ CSUB 69	CSUB +7.5	CSUB W
Dec 6, 2025-26	CSUB 84 @ UCSB 109	UCSB -12.5	UCSB W
Mar 12, 2024-25	CSUB 66 vs UCSB 71	UCSB -5.5	CSUB W
Feb 6, 2024-25	UCSB 81 @ CSUB 75	CSUB +3.5	UCSB W
Jan 9, 2024-25	CSUB 66 @ UCSB 78	UCSB -7.5	UCSB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Santa Barbara

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W L L W W W W L L W L L L W W W W W W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L L L W L W L L W L L L L W W L W W L W W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O O U U O O O U U U O U O U U O O U U O O U O O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsLMU	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 22	@NEV	L 64-77	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsLEH	W 72-70	-10.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsSEA	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 145
Dec 4	vsLBSU	W 84-77	-13.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsCSUB	W 109-84	-12.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 13	vsUVU	L 53-68	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 121
Dec 17	@GB	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	140.5	U 131
Dec 22	vsPORT	W 79-61	-9.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 1	@CSUF	L 84-95	-3.5	L −14.5	155.5	O 179
Jan 3	@CSUN	L 65-74	+2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsUCD	L 86-93	-4.5	L −11.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 15	@CSUB	W 75-69	-7.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsHAW	W 77-62	+2.5	W +17.5	143.5	U 139
Jan 22	vsCP	W 107-67	-8.5	W +31.5	159.5	O 174
Jan 24	@LBSU	W 74-71	-4.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCSD	W 62-48	+4.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	vsCSUF	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 152
Feb 5	@UCD	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 160
Feb 7	vsUCI	W 84-79	-2.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 163
Feb 12	@UCR	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 144
Feb 14	@CP	L 79-89	-3.5	L −13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 19	vsCSUN	L 83-85	-5.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@HAW	L 75-78	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 26	vsUCR	W 70-59	-10.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 129
Feb 28	@UCI	L 60-64	+3.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	vsUCSD	L 63-64	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsUCD	L 73-79	-4.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

LMU

L 74-78

−7.5

NEV

L 64-77

−7.5

LEH

W 72-70

−8.5

SEA

W 74-71

+5.5

LBSU

W 84-77

−6.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+12.5

UVU

L 53-68

−9.5

L 64-67

−10.5

PORT

W 79-61

+8.5

CSUF

L 84-95

−14.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−6.5

UCD

L 86-93

−11.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−1.5

HAW

W 77-62

+17.5

W 107-67

+31.5

LBSU

W 74-71

−1.5

UCSD

W 62-48

+18.5

CSUF

W 83-69

+5.5

UCD

L 75-85

−13.5

UCI

W 84-79

+2.5

UCR

W 76-68

+1.5

L 79-89

−13.5

CSUN

L 83-85

−7.5

HAW

L 75-78

+2.5

UCR

W 70-59

+0.5

UCI

L 60-64

−0.5

UCSD

L 63-64

−3.5

UCD

L 73-79

−10.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

LMU

L 74-78

+6.5

NEV

L 64-77

−6.5

LEH

W 72-70

−4.5

SEA

W 74-71

+2.5

LBSU

W 84-77

+19.5

CSUB

W 109-84

+47.5

UVU

L 53-68

−25.5

L 64-67

−9.5

PORT

W 79-61

−7.5

CSUF

L 84-95

+23.5

CSUN

L 65-74

−17.5

UCD

L 86-93

+31.5

CSUB

W 75-69

−0.5

HAW

W 77-62

−4.5

W 107-67

+14.5

LBSU

W 74-71

+0.5

UCSD

W 62-48

−35.5

CSUF

W 83-69

−1.5

UCD

L 75-85

+12.5

UCI

W 84-79

+21.5

UCR

W 76-68

−1.5

L 79-89

+8.5

CSUN

L 83-85

+11.5

HAW

L 75-78

+7.5

UCR

W 70-59

−16.5

UCI

L 60-64

−14.5

UCSD

L 63-64

−14.5

UCD

L 73-79

+12.5

over 16under 14avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bakersfield

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L W L L W L W L L L L W L W W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L W W L L L W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O O O U U U O U U U O O U O U U O O U U U O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 22	vsMVSU	W 86-70	-21.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@FSU	L 59-89	+26.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsFRES	W 76-71	+10.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 4	@CSUN	L 66-87	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCSB	L 84-109	+12.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 11	vsNDSU	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsPEPP	L 62-70	-1.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 23	vsIDHO	W 64-63	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 1	vsUCI	L 77-81	+11.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@UCD	W 81-79	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsUCR	W 67-66	-3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 10	@LBSU	L 75-81	+6.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCSB	L 69-75	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUCSD	L 62-83	+8.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@HAW	L 71-98	+17.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 169
Jan 29	vsCP	L 79-104	+1.5	L −23.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 31	vsUCD	L 72-80	+5.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 152
Feb 5	@UCI	L 62-78	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 7	@CSUF	L 66-82	+9.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 12	vsHAW	L 74-89	+13.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 19	@UCR	L 65-93	+6.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsCSUF	L 80-88	+5.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 168
Feb 26	@UCSD	L 72-84	+14.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsLBSU	L 87-88	+3.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsCSUN	L 84-86	+8.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	@CP	L 76-108	+8.5	L −23.5	174.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

MVSU

W 86-70

−5.5

FSU

L 59-89

−3.5

FRES

W 76-71

+15.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−15.5

UCSB

L 84-109

−12.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−3.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−9.5

IDHO

W 64-63

+8.5

UCI

L 77-81

+7.5

UCD

W 81-79

+11.5

UCR

W 67-66

−2.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+0.5

UCSB

L 69-75

+1.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−12.5

HAW

L 71-98

−9.5

L 79-104

−23.5

UCD

L 72-80

−2.5

UCI

L 62-78

+0.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−6.5

HAW

L 74-89

−1.5

UCR

L 65-93

−21.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−2.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+2.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+2.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

−23.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-70

+17.5

FSU

L 59-89

−11.5

FRES

W 76-71

−3.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−2.5

UCSB

L 84-109

+47.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−0.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−15.5

IDHO

W 64-63

−23.5

UCI

L 77-81

+14.5

UCD

W 81-79

+8.5

UCR

W 67-66

−14.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+13.5

UCSB

L 69-75

−0.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−2.5

HAW

L 71-98

+24.5

L 79-104

+21.5

UCD

L 72-80

−0.5

UCI

L 62-78

−4.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−9.5

HAW

L 74-89

+11.5

UCR

L 65-93

+7.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+7.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+7.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+22.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

+9.5

over 16under 14avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Santa Barbara has the better starters

Position by position: Santa Barbara 1, Bakersfield 0, even 4

Santa BarbaraBetterBakersfield

G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52

Even

G B. Cofield TR9.8 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 42

G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91

UCSBSmall

G J. Alexander9.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62

G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

No call

G S. Pouedet TR0.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43

Even

F C. Dioramma TR4.8 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 38

C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45

No call

F C. Barnes TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

Santa BarbaraBetterBakersfield

UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5

UCSBBig

CSUB defense348th of 366 · -9.5

UCSB defense128th of 366 · -2.3

UCSBBig

CSUB offense287th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players

UCSBSmall

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Bench-3.2 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestUCSB betterCSUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Santa Barbara

Guards

V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min

Forwards

A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min

Centers

E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew

Bakersfield

Guards

B. Cofield21 min · TRJ. Alexander20 minS. Pouedet5 min · TRS. WigingtonNewK. BradleyNewE. BrysonNew

Forwards

C. Dioramma15 min · TRC. Barnes6 min · TRT. KoppensNewP. IvancicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCSB76.7 #127

CSUB72.0 #244

Points per possession

UCSB1.13 #87

CSUB0.99 #336

Pace (possessions)

UCSB68.2 #218

CSUB72.7 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCSB54.7 #47

CSUB45.7 #355

3-point %

UCSB37.4 #23

CSUB29.0 #353

3-point attempt rate

UCSB44.1 #87

CSUB28.9 #356

Free throw rate

UCSB36.8 #134

CSUB42.2 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCSB18.8 #312

CSUB18.8 #313

Offensive rebound rate

UCSB31.0 #165

CSUB30.4 #181

Assists per game

UCSB14.1 #140

CSUB10.9 #340

Defense

Points allowed

UCSB73.7 #148

CSUB83.4 #351

Points allowed per possession

UCSB1.08 #156

CSUB1.15 #326

Opponent effective FG%

UCSB52.6 #244

CSUB54.0 #301

Opponent 3-point %

UCSB33.9 #177

CSUB36.0 #306

Turnovers forced

UCSB16.8 #170

CSUB17.9 #101

Defensive rebound rate

UCSB74.5 #14

CSUB64.4 #349

Steals per game

UCSB6.2 #216

CSUB7.4 #91

Blocks per game

UCSB2.3 #322

CSUB5.0 #18

UCSB		CSUB
Scoring
76.7 #127	Points per game	72.0 #244
1.13 #87	Points per possession	0.99 #336
68.2 #218	Pace (possessions)	72.7 #22
Shooting
54.7 #47	Effective FG%	45.7 #355
37.4 #23	3-point %	29.0 #353
44.1 #87	3-point attempt rate	28.9 #356
36.8 #134	Free throw rate	42.2 #27
Possessions
18.8 #312	Turnover rate	18.8 #313
31.0 #165	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #181
14.1 #140	Assists per game	10.9 #340
Defense
73.7 #148	Points allowed	83.4 #351
1.08 #156	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #326
52.6 #244	Opponent effective FG%	54.0 #301
33.9 #177	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #306
16.8 #170	Turnovers forced	17.9 #101
74.5 #14	Defensive rebound rate	64.4 #349
6.2 #216	Steals per game	7.4 #91
2.3 #322	Blocks per game	5.0 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Davis73–79
Lvs UC San Diego63–64
L@ UC Irvine60–64
Wvs UC Riverside70–59
L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.

Bakersfield

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 2-18 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cal Poly76–108
Lvs CSU Northridge84–86
Lvs Long Beach St87–88
L@ UC San Diego72–84
Lvs Fullerton80–88

A week or more of rest.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

What could decide it: UCSB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Santa Barbara

Bakersfield

Santa Barbara has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Santa Barbara

Bakersfield