Cal State Northridge Matadors at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 5:00 PM ETIcardo Center · at Bakersfield · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CSU Northridge and Bakersfield
CSUN	This season	CSUB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSUN 81–76 · win probability CSUN 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSUN has more of the edges

CSUN 4, CSUB 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CSUNBig

CSUN offense vs CSUB defense

Offense 140th of 366 against a defense 348th, on the model’s ratings

CSUNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CSUN 31.9%, CSUB 30.4%. Defensive: CSUN 73.4%, CSUB 64.4%

CSUNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CSUN 51.3 and allows 51.6; CSUB 45.7 and allows 54.0

CSUNSmall

Three-pointers

CSUN hits 32.4% and allows 34.4%; CSUB hits 29.0% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 33.6% and 28.9% of their shots

CSUBSmall

Home court

CSUB at home. This season: CSUB 0-0 at home, CSUN 0-0 away

Even

CSUB offense vs CSUN defense

Offense 287th of 366 against a defense 271st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CSUN 18%, CSUB 10%. Transfers in: CSUN 7, CSUB 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 74 possessions: CSUN plays 75.6 a game (2nd fastest), CSUB 72.7 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CSUN has played the 219th-hardest schedule, CSUB the 211th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CSUN 17.5%, CSUB 18.8%. Forced: CSUN 16.5%, CSUB 17.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CSUN 34.2, CSUB 42.2. Allowed: CSUN 34.3, CSUB 42.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CSUN -5.6	—
Total	—	156.9	—
Projected score	—	CSUN 81.2 · CSUB 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSUN -3.5	—
1H total	73.3	—
1H projected score	CSUN 38.4 · CSUB 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUN LLLWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—
CSUB LWWWL	12-18	40%	6-9	—

Venue/role: CSUN away; CSUB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUN OOUUO	19-13	59%	18-14
CSUB OOOOO	16-14	53%	6-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CSUB	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CSU Northridge

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ FRES	W89–87LO
Dec 12	vs UND	W93–85WO

Bakersfield

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

CSUN 6–5 CSUBCSUN leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · CSUN has won the last 3 meetings · CSUN 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 5, 2025-26	CSUN 86 @ CSUB 84	CSUB +8.5	CSUB W
Dec 4, 2025-26	CSUB 66 @ CSUN 87	CSUN -5.5	CSUN W
Feb 1, 2024-25	CSUB 62 @ CSUN 88	CSUN -10.5	CSUN W
Jan 11, 2024-25	CSUN 90 @ CSUB 94	CSUB +4.5	CSUB W
Feb 15, 2023-24	CSUN 76 @ CSUB 71	CSUB +2.5	CSUN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CSU Northridge

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-13

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1359%

U O O O U U U O O O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsIDST	L 50-82	+1.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 4	vsCSUB	W 87-66	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCI	L 71-85	+7.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsFRES	W 89-87	-3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 13	@DEL	W 88-66	+1.5	W +23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 22	vsSAC	W 100-88	-8.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 188
Dec 27	@STAN	L 80-88	+15.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 168
Jan 1	@UCD	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsUCSB	W 74-65	-2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsCP	W 95-90	-6.5	L −1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	@CSUF	L 79-86	+1.5	L −5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCSD	W 84-79	+7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	vsLBSU	L 80-87	-7.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 24	@HAW	L 68-89	+10.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUCD	W 94-78	-3.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsUCSD	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	@CP	W 97-96	-2.5	L −1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	vsUCR	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsHAW	W 84-60	+2.5	W +26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	@UCSB	W 85-83	+5.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@LBSU	W 78-76	-2.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	vsUCI	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UCR	L 84-95	-4.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@CSUB	W 86-84	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsCSUF	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCSD	W 80-70	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 13	vsUCI	L 78-93	+3.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

IDST

L 50-82

−30.5

CSUB

W 87-66

+15.5

UCI

L 71-85

−6.5

FRES

W 89-87

−1.5

DEL

W 88-66

+23.5

SAC

W 100-88

+3.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

−5.5

UCSB

W 74-65

+6.5

W 95-90

−1.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−5.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+12.5

LBSU

L 80-87

−14.5

HAW

L 68-89

−10.5

UCD

W 94-78

+12.5

UCSD

W 81-64

+18.5

W 97-96

−1.5

UCR

W 88-74

+3.5

HAW

W 84-60

+26.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+7.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−0.5

UCI

L 67-68

−2.5

UCR

L 84-95

−15.5

CSUB

W 86-84

−6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−18.5

UCSD

W 80-70

+11.5

UCI

L 78-93

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

IDST

L 50-82

−16.5

CSUB

W 87-66

−2.5

UCI

L 71-85

+3.5

FRES

W 89-87

+14.5

DEL

W 88-66

+9.5

SAC

W 100-88

+23.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

+6.5

UCSB

W 74-65

−17.5

W 95-90

+9.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−8.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+3.5

LBSU

L 80-87

+8.5

HAW

L 68-89

−1.5

UCD

W 94-78

+8.5

UCSD

W 81-64

−15.5

W 97-96

+15.5

UCR

W 88-74

+1.5

HAW

W 84-60

−18.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+11.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−3.5

UCI

L 67-68

−18.5

UCR

L 84-95

+20.5

CSUB

W 86-84

+6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−3.5

UCSD

W 80-70

−3.5

UCI

L 78-93

+18.5

over 19under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bakersfield

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L W L L W L W L L L L W L W W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

15 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L W W L L L W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O O O U U U O U U U O O U O U U O O U U U O O O O O O O

7 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 22	vsMVSU	W 86-70	-21.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@FSU	L 59-89	+26.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsFRES	W 76-71	+10.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 4	@CSUN	L 66-87	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCSB	L 84-109	+12.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 11	vsNDSU	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsPEPP	L 62-70	-1.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 23	vsIDHO	W 64-63	+7.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 1	vsUCI	L 77-81	+11.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 158
Jan 3	@UCD	W 81-79	+9.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsUCR	W 67-66	-3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 10	@LBSU	L 75-81	+6.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCSB	L 69-75	+7.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsUCSD	L 62-83	+8.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@HAW	L 71-98	+17.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 169
Jan 29	vsCP	L 79-104	+1.5	L −23.5	161.5	O 183
Jan 31	vsUCD	L 72-80	+5.5	L −2.5	152.5	U 152
Feb 5	@UCI	L 62-78	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 7	@CSUF	L 66-82	+9.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 12	vsHAW	L 74-89	+13.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 19	@UCR	L 65-93	+6.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 158
Feb 21	vsCSUF	L 80-88	+5.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 168
Feb 26	@UCSD	L 72-84	+14.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsLBSU	L 87-88	+3.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsCSUN	L 84-86	+8.5	W +6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	@CP	L 76-108	+8.5	L −23.5	174.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

MVSU

W 86-70

−5.5

FSU

L 59-89

−3.5

FRES

W 76-71

+15.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−15.5

UCSB

L 84-109

−12.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−3.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−9.5

IDHO

W 64-63

+8.5

UCI

L 77-81

+7.5

UCD

W 81-79

+11.5

UCR

W 67-66

−2.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+0.5

UCSB

L 69-75

+1.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−12.5

HAW

L 71-98

−9.5

L 79-104

−23.5

UCD

L 72-80

−2.5

UCI

L 62-78

+0.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−6.5

HAW

L 74-89

−1.5

UCR

L 65-93

−21.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−2.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+2.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+2.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

−23.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

MVSU

W 86-70

+17.5

FSU

L 59-89

−11.5

FRES

W 76-71

−3.5

CSUN

L 66-87

−2.5

UCSB

L 84-109

+47.5

NDSU

L 69-80

−0.5

PEPP

L 62-70

−15.5

IDHO

W 64-63

−23.5

UCI

L 77-81

+14.5

UCD

W 81-79

+8.5

UCR

W 67-66

−14.5

LBSU

L 75-81

+13.5

UCSB

L 69-75

−0.5

UCSD

L 62-83

−2.5

HAW

L 71-98

+24.5

L 79-104

+21.5

UCD

L 72-80

−0.5

UCI

L 62-78

−4.5

CSUF

L 66-82

−9.5

HAW

L 74-89

+11.5

UCR

L 65-93

+7.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+7.5

UCSD

L 72-84

+7.5

LBSU

L 87-88

+22.5

CSUN

L 84-86

+6.5

L 76-108

+9.5

over 16under 14avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: CSU Northridge 1, Bakersfield 1, even 3

CSU NorthridgeBetterBakersfield

G J. Davis16.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 7.5 ast Score 71

CSUNSmall

G B. Cofield TR9.8 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 42

G C. Smith TR7.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

CSUBSmall

G J. Alexander9.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62

G M. Ballew TR8.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

No call

G S. Pouedet TR0.6 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

G B. Hicks TR8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 49

Even

F C. Dioramma TR4.8 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 38

G K. Ekissi TR4.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 29

No call

F C. Barnes TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

CSU NorthridgeBetterBakersfield

CSUN offense140th of 366 · -4.2

CSUNBig

CSUB defense348th of 366 · -9.5

CSUN defense271st of 366 · -6.8

Even

CSUB offense287th of 366 · -8.9

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

CSUBBig

Backcourt-1.4 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestCSUN betterCSUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CSU Northridge

Guards

J. Davis34 minC. Smith30 min · TRM. Ballew23 min · TRB. Hicks22 min · TRK. Ekissi17 min · TRG. Gazarian2 min

Forwards

J. Martin7 min · TRB. OmotNew

Centers

E. Stephen15 min · TRL. Niang8 min · TR

Bakersfield

Guards

B. Cofield21 min · TRJ. Alexander20 minS. Pouedet5 min · TRS. WigingtonNewK. BradleyNewE. BrysonNew

Forwards

C. Dioramma15 min · TRC. Barnes6 min · TRT. KoppensNewP. IvancicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CSUN80.6 #54

CSUB72.0 #244

Points per possession

CSUN1.06 #219

CSUB0.99 #336

Pace (possessions)

CSUN75.6 #2

CSUB72.7 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

CSUN51.3 #183

CSUB45.7 #355

3-point %

CSUN32.4 #260

CSUB29.0 #353

3-point attempt rate

CSUN33.6 #308

CSUB28.9 #356

Free throw rate

CSUN34.2 #200

CSUB42.2 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

CSUN17.5 #237

CSUB18.8 #313

Offensive rebound rate

CSUN31.9 #130

CSUB30.4 #181

Assists per game

CSUN16.7 #31

CSUB10.9 #340

Defense

Points allowed

CSUN81.3 #336

CSUB83.4 #351

Points allowed per possession

CSUN1.08 #153

CSUB1.15 #326

Opponent effective FG%

CSUN51.6 #191

CSUB54.0 #301

Opponent 3-point %

CSUN34.4 #210

CSUB36.0 #306

Turnovers forced

CSUN16.5 #187

CSUB17.9 #101

Defensive rebound rate

CSUN73.4 #26

CSUB64.4 #349

Steals per game

CSUN6.6 #166

CSUB7.4 #91

Blocks per game

CSUN2.8 #259

CSUB5.0 #18

CSUN		CSUB
Scoring
80.6 #54	Points per game	72.0 #244
1.06 #219	Points per possession	0.99 #336
75.6 #2	Pace (possessions)	72.7 #22
Shooting
51.3 #183	Effective FG%	45.7 #355
32.4 #260	3-point %	29.0 #353
33.6 #308	3-point attempt rate	28.9 #356
34.2 #200	Free throw rate	42.2 #27
Possessions
17.5 #237	Turnover rate	18.8 #313
31.9 #130	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #181
16.7 #31	Assists per game	10.9 #340
Defense
81.3 #336	Points allowed	83.4 #351
1.08 #153	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #326
51.6 #191	Opponent effective FG%	54.0 #301
34.4 #210	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #306
16.5 #187	Turnovers forced	17.9 #101
73.4 #26	Defensive rebound rate	64.4 #349
6.6 #166	Steals per game	7.4 #91
2.8 #259	Blocks per game	5.0 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CSU Northridge

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Irvine78–93
Wvs UC San Diego80–70
Lvs Fullerton77–90
W@ Bakersfield86–84
L@ UC Riverside84–95

A week or more of rest.

Bakersfield

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 2-18 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cal Poly76–108
Lvs CSU Northridge84–86
Lvs Long Beach St87–88
L@ UC San Diego72–84
Lvs Fullerton80–88

A week or more of rest.

Cal State Northridge Matadors at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

What could decide it: CSUN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

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ATS History · 2025-26

CSU Northridge

Bakersfield

The starting fives are even

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CSU Northridge

Bakersfield