1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. CP @ UCSB
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Cal Poly Mustangs at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

The Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara · Conference game
#164CPCal Poly
@
#134UCSBSanta Barbara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CPThis seasonUCSB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSB 83–78 · win probability UCSB 66%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 160.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSB has more of the edges

CP 2, UCSB 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCSBBig
UCSB offense vs CP defense
Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 343rd, on the model’s ratings
UCSBBig
Three-pointers
CP hits 33.0% and allows 34.7%; UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 52.6% and 44.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: CP plays 76.4 a game (1st fastest), UCSB 68.2 (218th). Faster games mean more points
CPSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CP 100%, UCSB 53%. Transfers in: CP 0, UCSB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UCSBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CP 51.5 and allows 53.8; UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6
UCSBSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CP 30.0%, UCSB 31.0%. Defensive: CP 70.4%, UCSB 74.5%
CPSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CP 34.9, UCSB 36.8. Allowed: CP 34.1, UCSB 42.4
UCSBSmall
Home court
UCSB at home. This season: UCSB 0-0 at home, CP 0-0 away
Even
CP offense vs UCSB defense
Offense 91st of 366 against a defense 129th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CP has played the 170th-hardest schedule, UCSB the 203rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CP 19.8%, UCSB 18.8%. Forced: CP 16.3%, UCSB 16.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCSB -4.8—
Total—160.7—
Projected score—CP 78 · UCSB 82.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCSB -2.7—
1H total75.1—
1H projected scoreCP 36.2 · UCSB 38.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Santa Barbara has the better starters

Position by position: Cal Poly 1, Santa Barbara 3, even 1
Cal PolyBetterSanta Barbara
G H. Mousa20.3 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 96
CPBig
G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52
G C. Ward14.3 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 58
UCSBSmall
G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91
G G. Vasilic7.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 21
UCSBBig
G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
G J. Davis5.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 15
UCSBSmall
G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43
G K. Elliott5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 33
Even
C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45
Cal PolyBetterSanta Barbara
CP offense91st of 366 · -0.2
Even
UCSB defense129th of 366 · -2.3
CP defense343rd of 366 · -9.2
UCSBBig
UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-1.4 · 5 players
UCSBSmall
Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
Even
Bench-3.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCP betterUCSB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cal Poly
Guards
H. Mousa32 minC. Ward30 minG. Vasilic23 minJ. Davis21 minK. Elliott18 minJ. Esso Essis17 min
Forwards
A. Goode16 minT. Plumtree13 minA. Assran13 minA. Price6 minB. FreemanNew
Santa Barbara
Guards
V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min
Forwards
A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min
Centers
E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CPUCSB
Scoring
81.3 #42Points per game76.7 #127
1.06 #222Points per possession1.13 #87
76.4 #1Pace (possessions)68.2 #218
Shooting
51.5 #170Effective FG%54.7 #47
33.0 #2283-point %37.4 #23
52.6 #53-point attempt rate44.1 #87
34.9 #182Free throw rate36.8 #134
Possessions
19.8 #345Turnover rate18.8 #312
30.0 #202Offensive rebound rate31.0 #165
13.3 #194Assists per game14.1 #140
Defense
85.3 #360Points allowed73.7 #148
1.12 #274Points allowed per possession1.08 #156
53.8 #292Opponent effective FG%52.6 #244
34.7 #231Opponent 3-point %33.9 #177
16.3 #203Turnovers forced16.8 #170
70.4 #141Defensive rebound rate74.5 #14
6.4 #188Steals per game6.2 #216
2.2 #337Blocks per game2.3 #322
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cal Poly

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC San Diego69–72
  • Wvs Bakersfield108–76
  • L@ UC Irvine85–107
  • L@ UC San Diego64–80
  • Wvs Long Beach St102–92

A week or more of rest.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC Davis73–79
  • Lvs UC San Diego63–64
  • L@ UC Irvine60–64
  • Wvs UC Riverside70–59
  • L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.