1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. SAC @ UVU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Sacramento State Hornets at Utah Valley Wolverines

UCCU Center · at Utah Valley · Conference game
#196SACSacramento St
@
#150UVUUtah Valley
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SACThis seasonUVU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVU 81–73 · win probability UVU 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVU has more of the edges

SAC 2, UVU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SAC 47.0 and allows 55.0; UVU 55.0 and allows 49.4
UVUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SAC 25.2%, UVU 34.8%. Defensive: SAC 66.6%, UVU 68.7%
UVUSmall
UVU offense vs SAC defense
Offense 161st of 366 against a defense 262nd, on the model’s ratings
SACSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SAC 14.1%, UVU 20.1%. Forced: SAC 17.1%, UVU 21.3%
SACSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SAC 41.2, UVU 38.2. Allowed: SAC 36.2, UVU 39.1
UVUSmall
Three-pointers
SAC hits 31.9% and allows 35.1%; UVU hits 34.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 35.6% and 32.9% of their shots
UVUSmall
Home court
UVU at home. This season: UVU 0-0 at home, SAC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SAC plays 72.6 a game (24th fastest), UVU 70.2 (104th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
SAC has played the 248th-hardest schedule, UVU the 254th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
SAC offense vs UVU defense
Offense 146th of 366 against a defense 152nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SAC 42%, UVU 44%. Transfers in: SAC 6, UVU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVU -7.6—
Total—154.2—
Projected score—SAC 73.3 · UVU 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVU -4.4—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreSAC 33.9 · UVU 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Sacramento St has the better starters

Position by position: Sacramento St 3, Utah Valley 2, even 0
Sacramento StBetterUtah Valley
G M. Williams18.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 56
SACSmall
G T. Davis TR7.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
G L. Hughes TR17.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
SACBig
G B. Housley4.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 5
G M. Wilson TR12.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.9 ast Score 76
SACBig
G S. Weatherspoon4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
G A. Madi7.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 44
UVUBig
F I. Davis10.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 83
F O. Grady TR9.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
UVUBig
F I. Hawkins7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 94
Sacramento StBetterUtah Valley
SAC offense146th of 366 · -4.4
Even
UVU defense152nd of 366 · -3.3
SAC defense262nd of 366 · -6.8
UVUSmall
UVU offense161st of 366 · -4.8
Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players
SACBig
Backcourt-6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 1 player
UVUBig
Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players
Bench-3.4 · 5 players
UVUSmall
Bench-0.6 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSAC betterUVU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Sacramento St
Guards
M. Williams36 minL. Hughes32 min · TRM. Wilson27 min · TRA. Madi24 minT. Glover14 minR. Robinson11 min
Forwards
O. Grady31 min · TRR. Tutic23 min · TRS. Ciani10 min · TRM. HuntNewG. AsimakopoulosNew
Centers
J. Das Chagas7 min · TR
Utah Valley
Guards
T. Davis27 min · TRB. Housley26 minS. Weatherspoon16 minD. Nelson8 min · TRJ. Barnes5 min · TRM. BabraitisNew
Forwards
I. Davis19 minI. Hawkins14 minT. Weaver8 minT. Medaris5 minO. MowafakNewD. DengNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SACUVU
Scoring
75.9 #144Points per game77.7 #101
1.05 #258Points per possession1.11 #126
72.6 #24Pace (possessions)70.2 #104
Shooting
47.0 #337Effective FG%55.0 #38
31.9 #2843-point %34.0 #170
35.6 #2573-point attempt rate32.9 #317
41.2 #41Free throw rate38.2 #98
Possessions
14.1 #26Turnover rate20.1 #349
25.2 #336Offensive rebound rate34.8 #51
12.1 #275Assists per game17.5 #14
Defense
83.6 #352Points allowed70.8 #72
1.15 #327Points allowed per possession1.01 #32
55.0 #331Opponent effective FG%49.4 #78
35.1 #257Opponent 3-point %35.2 #260
17.1 #140Turnovers forced21.3 #7
66.6 #306Defensive rebound rate68.7 #221
7.5 #76Steals per game9.3 #6
2.7 #280Blocks per game5.1 #14
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sacramento St

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho45–68
  • Wvs Idaho St83–65
  • L@ Montana St61–82
  • L@ Montana73–81
  • Lvs Idaho80–86

A week or more of rest.

Utah Valley

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs G Washington78–79
  • Lvs CA Baptist61–63
  • Wvs UT Arlington67–65
  • W@ Utah Tech104–101
  • W@ Southern Utah92–88

A week or more of rest.