Maine Black Bears at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 4:30 PM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Maine and Lafayette
ME	This season	LAF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAF 70–65 · win probability LAF 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 135.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ME 3, LAF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MEBig

LAF offense vs ME defense

Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings

LAFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ME 19.7%, LAF 25.8%. Defensive: ME 65.7%, LAF 71.4%

MEBig

Three-pointers

ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%; LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 37.0% and 39.8% of their shots

LAFBig

ME offense vs LAF defense

Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ME has played the 319th-hardest schedule, LAF the 230th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ME 49.6 and allows 50.6; LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6

LAFSmall

Home court

LAF at home. This season: LAF 0-0 at home, ME 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ME 38.4, LAF 32.5. Allowed: ME 33.9, LAF 30.6

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: ME plays 64.9 a game (348th fastest), LAF 67.2 (274th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ME 31%, LAF 34%. Transfers in: ME 4, LAF 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ME 19.2%, LAF 15.3%. Forced: ME 19.3%, LAF 15.1%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LAF -4.6	—
Total	—	135.4	—
Projected score	—	ME 65.4 · LAF 70

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LAF -2.6	—
1H total	63.4	—
1H projected score	ME 30.4 · LAF 33	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ME WWLLW	14-17	45%	9-9	—
LAF WLWWL	13-17	43%	3-11	—

Venue/role: ME away; LAF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ME UUOUU	12-19	39%	7-24
LAF OUUOO	17-13	57%	10-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ME	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
LAF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Maine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs NIA	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs STBK	L60–71LU
Dec 8	@ DEP	No recent meeting

Lafayette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs LEM	L63–76LU
Dec 4	@ FDU	No recent meeting
Dec 7	vs PENN	L72–74WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maine

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W W L W L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

W L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W L W L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O U O U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsLONG	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	vsSIE	L 60-64	+9.5	W +5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OHIO	L 57-79	+12.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	@M-OH	L 61-93	+17.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@BU	W 69-59	+8.5	W +18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCAN	L 43-70	-6.5	L −33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 21	@DREX	L 56-74	+10.5	L −7.5	129.5	O 130
Jan 3	vsBRY	L 51-56	+1.5	L −3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	@UMBC	L 62-69	+7.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	@NJIT	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 144
Jan 15	@UVM	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsUNH	L 48-65	-1.5	L −18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsUALB	W 52-49	+2.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	vsBING	W 79-63	-5.5	W +10.5	124.5	O 142
Jan 31	@UML	L 77-91	+4.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	vsUVM	W 76-70	+8.5	W +14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	@BRY	L 67-73	+2.5	L −3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	vsUMBC	L 62-78	+3.5	L −12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	vsNJIT	L 58-67	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 125
Feb 21	@UNH	W 61-58	+3.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@UALB	W 70-59	+4.5	W +15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	@BING	L 67-74	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 141
Mar 3	vsUML	L 56-67	+1.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	@NJIT	L 58-60	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

LONG

L 61-65

+1.5

SIE

L 60-64

+5.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−9.5

M-OH

L 61-93

−14.5

W 69-59

+18.5

CAN

L 43-70

−33.5

DREX

L 56-74

−7.5

BRY

L 51-56

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-69

+0.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+5.5

UVM

L 62-67

+9.5

UNH

L 48-65

−18.5

UALB

W 52-49

+5.5

BING

W 79-63

+10.5

UML

L 77-91

−9.5

UVM

W 76-70

+14.5

BRY

L 67-73

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-78

−12.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−7.5

UNH

W 61-58

+6.5

UALB

W 70-59

+15.5

BING

L 67-74

−8.5

UML

L 56-67

−9.5

NJIT

L 58-60

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

LONG

L 61-65

−12.5

SIE

L 60-64

−3.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−2.5

M-OH

L 61-93

+14.5

W 69-59

−0.5

CAN

L 43-70

−14.5

DREX

L 56-74

+0.5

BRY

L 51-56

−18.5

UMBC

L 62-69

−2.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+13.5

UVM

L 62-67

−1.5

UNH

L 48-65

−16.5

UALB

W 52-49

−30.5

BING

W 79-63

+17.5

UML

L 77-91

+31.5

UVM

W 76-70

+15.5

BRY

L 67-73

+11.5

UMBC

L 62-78

+4.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−12.5

UNH

W 61-58

−16.5

UALB

W 70-59

−1.5

BING

L 67-74

+7.5

UML

L 56-67

−16.5

NJIT

L 58-60

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L L L W W L L W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	@NAVY	L 50-76	+8.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 14	@BUCK	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsHC	W 74-55	-2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@BU	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@LEH	L 59-64	+2.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	vsBUCK	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	@AMER	W 67-65	+5.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsNAVY	L 50-65	+3.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	@ARMY	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsL-MD	L 54-68	-3.5	L −17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 14	vsLEH	L 69-78	-2.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@HC	W 86-83	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	vsAMER	L 61-75	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	@COLG	W 70-69	+8.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsARMY	W 83-77	-3.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	vsHC	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−17.5

BUCK

L 69-76

−4.5

W 74-55

+16.5

L 73-77

+0.5

LEH

L 59-64

−2.5

BUCK

W 81-79

−2.5

AMER

W 67-65

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−11.5

ARMY

W 63-60

+1.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−17.5

LEH

L 69-78

−11.5

W 86-83

+4.5

AMER

L 61-75

−10.5

COLG

W 70-69

+9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+2.5

L 77-82

−9.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−15.5

BUCK

L 69-76

+7.5

W 74-55

−9.5

L 73-77

+4.5

LEH

L 59-64

−20.5

BUCK

W 81-79

+21.5

AMER

W 67-65

−10.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−24.5

ARMY

W 63-60

−19.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−25.5

LEH

L 69-78

+6.5

W 86-83

+29.5

AMER

L 61-75

−5.5

COLG

W 70-69

−9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+15.5

L 77-82

+17.5

over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Maine 1, Lafayette 1, even 3

MaineBetterLafayette

G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23

No call

G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

LAFBig

F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67

G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

Even

F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33

MESmall

F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

Even

C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

MaineBetterLafayette

ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7

LAFSmall

LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5

ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5

MEBig

LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8

Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players

LAFBig

Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestME betterLAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Maine

Guards

D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew

Forwards

A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR

Lafayette

Guards

P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew

Forwards

S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew

Centers

M. Bednostin10 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ME61.2 #364

LAF69.1 #297

Points per possession

ME0.95 #356

LAF1.03 #289

Pace (possessions)

ME64.9 #348

LAF67.2 #274

Shooting

Effective FG%

ME49.6 #263

LAF49.3 #278

3-point %

ME31.2 #314

LAF32.1 #273

3-point attempt rate

ME37.0 #231

LAF39.8 #173

Free throw rate

ME38.4 #93

LAF32.5 #249

Possessions

Turnover rate

ME19.2 #328

LAF15.3 #89

Offensive rebound rate

ME19.7 #364

LAF25.8 #326

Assists per game

ME11.8 #300

LAF13.6 #175

Defense

Points allowed

ME68.5 #39

LAF75.4 #200

Points allowed per possession

ME1.05 #90

LAF1.12 #275

Opponent effective FG%

ME50.6 #136

LAF53.6 #286

Opponent 3-point %

ME29.4 #4

LAF36.0 #298

Turnovers forced

ME19.3 #38

LAF15.1 #273

Defensive rebound rate

ME65.7 #322

LAF71.4 #88

Steals per game

ME7.7 #57

LAF5.3 #316

Blocks per game

ME3.2 #194

LAF2.3 #324

ME		LAF
Scoring
61.2 #364	Points per game	69.1 #297
0.95 #356	Points per possession	1.03 #289
64.9 #348	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #274
Shooting
49.6 #263	Effective FG%	49.3 #278
31.2 #314	3-point %	32.1 #273
37.0 #231	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #173
38.4 #93	Free throw rate	32.5 #249
Possessions
19.2 #328	Turnover rate	15.3 #89
19.7 #364	Offensive rebound rate	25.8 #326
11.8 #300	Assists per game	13.6 #175
Defense
68.5 #39	Points allowed	75.4 #200
1.05 #90	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #275
50.6 #136	Opponent effective FG%	53.6 #286
29.4 #4	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #298
19.3 #38	Turnovers forced	15.1 #273
65.7 #322	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #88
7.7 #57	Steals per game	5.3 #316
3.2 #194	Blocks per game	2.3 #324

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ NJIT58–60
Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
L@ Binghamton67–74
W@ UAlbany70–59
W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Holy Cross77–82
Wvs Army83–77
W@ Colgate70–69
Lvs American61–75
W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

Maine Black Bears at Lafayette Leopards

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Maine

Lafayette

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Maine

Lafayette