Lafayette Leopards at Fairleigh Dickinson Knights: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 12:00 AM ETBogota Savings Bank Center · at FDU

#356FDUFDU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lafayette and FDU
LAF	This season	FDU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FDU 71–70 · win probability FDU 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAF has more of the edges

LAF 5, FDU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FDUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAF 25.8%, FDU 32.0%. Defensive: LAF 71.4%, FDU 72.7%

LAFBig

FDU offense vs LAF defense

Offense 356th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAF has played the 230th-hardest schedule, FDU the 308th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LAFSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAF 15.3%, FDU 18.2%. Forced: LAF 15.1%, FDU 16.1%

LAFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAF 32.5, FDU 32.8. Allowed: LAF 30.6, FDU 36.3

LAFSmall

Three-pointers

LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%; FDU hits 30.3% and allows 37.8%. Threes are 39.8% and 45.2% of their shots

LAFSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6; FDU 47.1 and allows 55.2

FDUSmall

Home court

FDU at home. This season: FDU 0-0 at home, LAF 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: LAF plays 67.2 a game (274th fastest), FDU 64.4 (356th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAF 34%, FDU 27%. Transfers in: LAF 1, FDU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

LAF offense vs FDU defense

Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 320th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FDU -0.9	—
Total	—	140.3	—
Projected score	—	LAF 69.7 · FDU 70.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FDU -0.4	—
1H total	65.7	—
1H projected score	LAF 32.6 · FDU 33	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAF WLWWL	13-17	43%	10-6	—
FDU LLLLL	10-19	34%	5-6	—

Venue/role: LAF away; FDU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAF OUUOO	17-13	57%	10-21
FDU UOUUU	10-19	34%	8-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
FDU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lafayette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs PENN	L72–74WU

FDU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	@ FOR	L54–75LU
Dec 9	@ VILL	L72–86WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lafayette

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L L L W W L L W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	@NAVY	L 50-76	+8.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 14	@BUCK	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsHC	W 74-55	-2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@BU	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@LEH	L 59-64	+2.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	vsBUCK	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	@AMER	W 67-65	+5.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsNAVY	L 50-65	+3.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	@ARMY	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsL-MD	L 54-68	-3.5	L −17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 14	vsLEH	L 69-78	-2.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@HC	W 86-83	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	vsAMER	L 61-75	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	@COLG	W 70-69	+8.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsARMY	W 83-77	-3.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	vsHC	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−17.5

BUCK

L 69-76

−4.5

W 74-55

+16.5

L 73-77

+0.5

LEH

L 59-64

−2.5

BUCK

W 81-79

−2.5

AMER

W 67-65

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−11.5

ARMY

W 63-60

+1.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−17.5

LEH

L 69-78

−11.5

W 86-83

+4.5

AMER

L 61-75

−10.5

COLG

W 70-69

+9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+2.5

L 77-82

−9.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−15.5

BUCK

L 69-76

+7.5

W 74-55

−9.5

L 73-77

+4.5

LEH

L 59-64

−20.5

BUCK

W 81-79

+21.5

AMER

W 67-65

−10.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−24.5

ARMY

W 63-60

−19.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−25.5

LEH

L 69-78

+6.5

W 86-83

+29.5

AMER

L 61-75

−5.5

COLG

W 70-69

−9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+15.5

L 77-82

+17.5

over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

FDU

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

10-19

34% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-19

34% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

L L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W W L L L W W W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1934%

L L L L L L L L W W W L W L W W W L W L W W L L L L L L L

7 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-1934%

U O U O U O U U U U O O U U U U O O U O O U U U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ISU	L 50-88	+37.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 8	@SPU	L 83-93	+6.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 176
Nov 12	@TEX	L 58-93	+31.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	@NJIT	L 81-93	+2.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsETAM	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 135
Nov 26	vsARMY	L 73-81	-4.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 2	@PROV	L 64-94	+26.5	L −3.5	162.5	U 158
Dec 10	@FOR	L 54-75	+11.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 129
Dec 22	@BC	L 61-72	+16.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@MINN	L 43-60	+25.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 2	@MERC	W 74-67	+5.5	W +12.5	133.5	O 141
Jan 4	@SFPA	L 82-85	-2.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 167
Jan 8	vsCHST	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 133
Jan 10	@NHVN	L 55-65	+1.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsLIU	L 59-66	+7.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 19	vsWAG	W 68-61	-2.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 23	@CCSU	W 76-66	+7.5	W +17.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 26	vsLEM	L 74-87	-1.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 29	@STO	L 57-58	+2.5	W +1.5	131.5	U 115
Jan 31	@WAG	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	133.5	O 147
Feb 5	vsSTO	W 74-58	-1.5	W +14.5	130.5	O 132
Feb 7	vsMERC	W 55-52	-2.5	W +0.5	131.5	U 107
Feb 12	vsSFPA	W 66-59	-7.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 125
Feb 14	vsCCSU	L 57-63	-1.5	L −7.5	133.5	U 120
Feb 19	@CHST	W 60-59	-1.5	L −0.5	131.5	U 119
Feb 21	vsNHVN	L 77-84	-2.5	L −9.5	123.5	O 161
Feb 26	@LEM	L 59-76	+4.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 135
Feb 28	@LIU	L 60-74	+9.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 134
Mar 4	@MERC	L 61-70	+3.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−0.5

SPU

L 83-93

−3.5

TEX

L 58-93

−3.5

NJIT

L 81-93

−9.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−1.5

ARMY

L 73-81

−12.5

PROV

L 64-94

−3.5

FOR

L 54-75

−9.5

L 61-72

+5.5

MINN

L 43-60

+8.5

MERC

W 74-67

+12.5

SFPA

L 82-85

−5.5

CHST

W 70-63

+2.5

NHVN

L 55-65

−8.5

LIU

L 59-66

+0.5

WAG

W 68-61

+4.5

CCSU

W 76-66

+17.5

LEM

L 74-87

−14.5

STO

L 57-58

+1.5

WAG

L 72-75

−1.5

STO

W 74-58

+14.5

MERC

W 55-52

+0.5

SFPA

W 66-59

−0.5

CCSU

L 57-63

−7.5

CHST

W 60-59

−0.5

NHVN

L 77-84

−9.5

LEM

L 59-76

−12.5

LIU

L 60-74

−4.5

MERC

L 61-70

−5.5

covered 10didn’t cover 19avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−9.5

SPU

L 83-93

+38.5

TEX

L 58-93

−7.5

NJIT

L 81-93

+27.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−14.5

ARMY

L 73-81

+1.5

PROV

L 64-94

−4.5

FOR

L 54-75

−12.5

L 61-72

−8.5

MINN

L 43-60

−36.5

MERC

W 74-67

+7.5

SFPA

L 82-85

+23.5

CHST

W 70-63

−10.5

NHVN

L 55-65

−10.5

LIU

L 59-66

−18.5

WAG

W 68-61

−8.5

CCSU

W 76-66

+1.5

LEM

L 74-87

+21.5

STO

L 57-58

−16.5

WAG

L 72-75

+13.5

STO

W 74-58

+1.5

MERC

W 55-52

−24.5

SFPA

W 66-59

−16.5

CCSU

L 57-63

−13.5

CHST

W 60-59

−12.5

NHVN

L 77-84

+37.5

LEM

L 59-76

−4.5

LIU

L 60-74

−3.5

MERC

L 61-70

−0.5

over 10under 19avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lafayette has the better starters

Position by position: Lafayette 2, FDU 0, even 3

LafayetteBetterFDU

G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Jevtic6.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67

LAFBig

G R. Johnson4.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 10

F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

LAFSmall

G R. Elijah Godbolt1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 1

F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

Even

F P. Stosic TR3.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 16

C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

No call

F B. Agu TR2.7 pts · 2 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

LafayetteBetterFDU

LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8

Even

FDU defense320th of 366 · -8.3

LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5

LAFSmall

FDU offense356th of 366 · -13.3

Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player

LAFBig

Backcourt-5.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Even

Bench-1.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLAF betterFDU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lafayette

Guards

P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew

Forwards

S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew

Centers

M. Bednostin10 min

FDU

Guards

D. Jevtic21 minR. Johnson17 minR. Elijah Godbolt12 minT. McQuaid2 minJ. JacobsNewA. CandaNew

Forwards

P. Stosic16 min · TRB. Agu10 min · TRT. Torain9 min · TRA. RatliffNew

Centers

S. Haubro3 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAF69.1 #297

FDU65.1 #349

Points per possession

LAF1.03 #289

FDU1.01 #314

Pace (possessions)

LAF67.2 #274

FDU64.4 #356

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAF49.3 #278

FDU47.1 #333

3-point %

LAF32.1 #273

FDU30.3 #339

3-point attempt rate

LAF39.8 #173

FDU45.2 #63

Free throw rate

LAF32.5 #249

FDU32.8 #240

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAF15.3 #89

FDU18.2 #280

Offensive rebound rate

LAF25.8 #326

FDU32.0 #125

Assists per game

LAF13.6 #175

FDU11.4 #316

Defense

Points allowed

LAF75.4 #200

FDU72.7 #123

Points allowed per possession

LAF1.12 #275

FDU1.13 #280

Opponent effective FG%

LAF53.6 #286

FDU55.2 #336

Opponent 3-point %

LAF36.0 #298

FDU37.8 #354

Turnovers forced

LAF15.1 #273

FDU16.1 #218

Defensive rebound rate

LAF71.4 #88

FDU72.7 #46

Steals per game

LAF5.3 #316

FDU4.8 #344

Blocks per game

LAF2.3 #324

FDU1.5 #362

LAF		FDU
Scoring
69.1 #297	Points per game	65.1 #349
1.03 #289	Points per possession	1.01 #314
67.2 #274	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #356
Shooting
49.3 #278	Effective FG%	47.1 #333
32.1 #273	3-point %	30.3 #339
39.8 #173	3-point attempt rate	45.2 #63
32.5 #249	Free throw rate	32.8 #240
Possessions
15.3 #89	Turnover rate	18.2 #280
25.8 #326	Offensive rebound rate	32.0 #125
13.6 #175	Assists per game	11.4 #316
Defense
75.4 #200	Points allowed	72.7 #123
1.12 #275	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #280
53.6 #286	Opponent effective FG%	55.2 #336
36.0 #298	Opponent 3-point %	37.8 #354
15.1 #273	Turnovers forced	16.1 #218
71.4 #88	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #46
5.3 #316	Steals per game	4.8 #344
2.3 #324	Blocks per game	1.5 #362

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Holy Cross77–82
Wvs Army83–77
W@ Colgate70–69
Lvs American61–75
W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

FDU

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Mercyhurst61–70
L@ Long Island60–74
L@ Le Moyne59–76
Lvs New Haven77–84
W@ Chicago St60–59

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette Leopards at Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

What could decide it: LAF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lafayette

FDU

Lafayette has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lafayette

FDU