Le Moyne Dolphins at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 12:00 AM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Le Moyne and Lafayette
LEM	This season	LAF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAF 73–71 · win probability LAF 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 143.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

LEM 3, LAF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LEM 52.6 and allows 49.3; LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6

LAFBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LEM 19.1%, LAF 15.3%. Forced: LEM 15.0%, LAF 15.1%

Context

Schedule so far

LEM has played the 344th-hardest schedule, LAF the 230th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LAFSmall

LEM offense vs LAF defense

Offense 333rd of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings

LEMSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LEM 39.5, LAF 32.5. Allowed: LEM 32.7, LAF 30.6

LEMSmall

Three-pointers

LEM hits 34.3% and allows 36.0%; LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 40.8% and 39.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LEM plays 69.2 a game (168th fastest), LAF 67.2 (274th). Faster games mean more points

LAFSmall

Home court

LAF at home. This season: LAF 0-0 at home, LEM 0-0 away

Even

LAF offense vs LEM defense

Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 308th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LEM 24%, LAF 34%. Transfers in: LEM 7, LAF 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LEM 25.2%, LAF 25.8%. Defensive: LEM 71.0%, LAF 71.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LAF -2.5	—
Total	—	143.7	—
Projected score	—	LEM 70.6 · LAF 73.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LAF -1.3	—
1H total	67.3	—
1H projected score	LEM 33 · LAF 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LEM WLWLL	16-15	52%	10-7	—
LAF WLWWL	13-17	43%	3-11	—

Venue/role: LEM away; LAF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LEM UOUUO	12-19	39%	14-17
LAF OUUOO	17-13	57%	10-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LEM	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
LAF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Le Moyne

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs BING	W78–63WU
Dec 6	@ CLEM	No recent meeting
Dec 13	@ FAIR	L83–97LO

Lafayette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	@ FDU	No recent meeting
Dec 7	vs PENN	L72–74WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LEM 1–0 LAFLEM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LEM 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 28, 2025-26	LEM 76 @ LAF 63	LAF -4.5	LEM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Le Moyne

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

16-15

52% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L L W L W W L W L L L W L W L W W W W L L L W W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1552%

W L W W L W W L W L W W W L W L W W L W L L L L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O O O U O O U U O U U U U U U O U O U U O O U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@XAV	L 69-74	+24.5	W +19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 9	@BGSU	L 60-83	+11.5	L −11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 13	@MASS	L 80-94	+16.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsNIA	W 74-68	-2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 22	vsFAIR	L 83-97	+1.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 28	@LAF	W 76-63	+4.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsMONM	W 83-79	+6.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 162
Nov 30	vsBALL	L 85-96	-1.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 181
Dec 6	@BING	W 78-63	-2.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 16	@TEX	L 53-95	+29.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 20	@SBU	L 81-92	+21.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 28	@BC	L 64-72	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 2	@SFPA	W 84-58	-5.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 142
Jan 4	@MERC	L 60-74	+2.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 8	vsNHVN	W 73-47	-5.5	W +20.5	137.5	U 120
Jan 10	vsCCSU	L 59-69	-1.5	L −11.5	146.5	U 128
Jan 17	@CHST	W 72-57	-6.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsLIU	W 83-77	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 23	vsWAG	W 69-67	-7.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 136
Jan 26	@FDU	W 87-74	+1.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 29	@LIU	L 61-83	+8.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 31	vsSTO	L 54-65	-2.5	L −13.5	140.5	U 119
Feb 5	@WAG	L 78-79	-1.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157
Feb 7	vsSFPA	W 86-84	-7.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 170
Feb 12	vsMERC	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 115
Feb 14	vsCHST	W 81-63	-6.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 144
Feb 19	@CCSU	L 77-78	+8.5	W +7.5	165.5	U 155
Feb 21	@STO	L 68-77	-1.5	L −10.5	137.5	O 145
Feb 26	vsFDU	W 76-59	-4.5	W +12.5	139.5	U 135
Feb 28	@NHVN	L 59-66	-1.5	L −8.5	137.5	U 125
Mar 4	vsSTO	L 71-81	-4.5	L −14.5	140.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

+19.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+2.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

FAIR

L 83-97

−12.5

LAF

W 76-63

+17.5

MONM

W 83-79

+10.5

BALL

L 85-96

−12.5

BING

W 78-63

+12.5

TEX

L 53-95

−12.5

SBU

L 81-92

+10.5

L 64-72

+4.5

SFPA

W 84-58

+20.5

MERC

L 60-74

−11.5

NHVN

W 73-47

+20.5

CCSU

L 59-69

−11.5

CHST

W 72-57

+8.5

LIU

W 83-77

+7.5

WAG

W 69-67

−5.5

FDU

W 87-74

+14.5

LIU

L 61-83

−13.5

STO

L 54-65

−13.5

WAG

L 78-79

−2.5

SFPA

W 86-84

−5.5

MERC

W 58-57

−1.5

CHST

W 81-63

+11.5

CCSU

L 77-78

+7.5

STO

L 68-77

−10.5

FDU

W 76-59

+12.5

NHVN

L 59-66

−8.5

STO

L 71-81

−14.5

covered 16didn’t cover 15avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

−13.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+20.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

FAIR

L 83-97

+34.5

LAF

W 76-63

−12.5

MONM

W 83-79

+16.5

BALL

L 85-96

+40.5

BING

W 78-63

−3.5

TEX

L 53-95

−4.5

SBU

L 81-92

+21.5

L 64-72

−10.5

SFPA

W 84-58

−9.5

MERC

L 60-74

−7.5

NHVN

W 73-47

−17.5

CCSU

L 59-69

−18.5

CHST

W 72-57

−17.5

LIU

W 83-77

+9.5

WAG

W 69-67

−7.5

FDU

W 87-74

+21.5

LIU

L 61-83

−3.5

STO

L 54-65

−21.5

WAG

L 78-79

+18.5

SFPA

W 86-84

+16.5

MERC

W 58-57

−23.5

CHST

W 81-63

−0.5

CCSU

L 77-78

−10.5

STO

L 68-77

+7.5

FDU

W 76-59

−4.5

NHVN

L 59-66

−12.5

STO

L 71-81

+11.5

over 12under 19avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L L L W W L L W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	@NAVY	L 50-76	+8.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 14	@BUCK	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsHC	W 74-55	-2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@BU	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@LEH	L 59-64	+2.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	vsBUCK	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	@AMER	W 67-65	+5.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsNAVY	L 50-65	+3.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	@ARMY	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsL-MD	L 54-68	-3.5	L −17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 14	vsLEH	L 69-78	-2.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@HC	W 86-83	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	vsAMER	L 61-75	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	@COLG	W 70-69	+8.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsARMY	W 83-77	-3.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	vsHC	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−17.5

BUCK

L 69-76

−4.5

W 74-55

+16.5

L 73-77

+0.5

LEH

L 59-64

−2.5

BUCK

W 81-79

−2.5

AMER

W 67-65

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−11.5

ARMY

W 63-60

+1.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−17.5

LEH

L 69-78

−11.5

W 86-83

+4.5

AMER

L 61-75

−10.5

COLG

W 70-69

+9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+2.5

L 77-82

−9.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−15.5

BUCK

L 69-76

+7.5

W 74-55

−9.5

L 73-77

+4.5

LEH

L 59-64

−20.5

BUCK

W 81-79

+21.5

AMER

W 67-65

−10.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−24.5

ARMY

W 63-60

−19.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−25.5

LEH

L 69-78

+6.5

W 86-83

+29.5

AMER

L 61-75

−5.5

COLG

W 70-69

−9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+15.5

L 77-82

+17.5

over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Le Moyne has the better starters

Position by position: Le Moyne 2, Lafayette 1, even 2

Le MoyneBetterLafayette

G A. Moss10 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast Not ranked

No call

G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G J. Clayville TR6.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

LAFBig

F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67

G D. King TR4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59

LEMBig

F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

F K. Stuckey TR4.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5

Even

F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

F T. Francis TR4.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 27

LEMSmall

C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

Le MoyneBetterLafayette

LEM offense333rd of 366 · -10.8

LAFSmall

LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5

LEM defense308th of 366 · -8.0

Even

LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8

Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players

LAFBig

Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players

Bench-6.1 · 5 players

LAFBig

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLEM betterLAF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Le Moyne

Guards

A. Moss37 minJ. Clayville20 min · TRD. King14 min · TRJ. Teat14 min · TRK. Williams12 min · TRJ. Lee4 min

Forwards

K. Stuckey19 min · TRT. Francis15 min · TRT. Roe7 minI. BrownNewC. SchreinerNewC. JohnsonNew

Centers

P. Hartman9 min · TR

Lafayette

Guards

P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew

Forwards

S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew

Centers

M. Bednostin10 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LEM72.3 #234

LAF69.1 #297

Points per possession

LEM1.04 #265

LAF1.03 #289

Pace (possessions)

LEM69.2 #168

LAF67.2 #274

Shooting

Effective FG%

LEM52.6 #118

LAF49.3 #278

3-point %

LEM34.3 #152

LAF32.1 #273

3-point attempt rate

LEM40.8 #151

LAF39.8 #173

Free throw rate

LEM39.5 #68

LAF32.5 #249

Possessions

Turnover rate

LEM19.1 #323

LAF15.3 #89

Offensive rebound rate

LEM25.2 #337

LAF25.8 #326

Assists per game

LEM14.0 #149

LAF13.6 #175

Defense

Points allowed

LEM73.9 #154

LAF75.4 #200

Points allowed per possession

LEM1.07 #132

LAF1.12 #275

Opponent effective FG%

LEM49.3 #75

LAF53.6 #286

Opponent 3-point %

LEM36.0 #303

LAF36.0 #298

Turnovers forced

LEM15.0 #289

LAF15.1 #273

Defensive rebound rate

LEM71.0 #107

LAF71.4 #88

Steals per game

LEM5.5 #300

LAF5.3 #316

Blocks per game

LEM3.3 #177

LAF2.3 #324

LEM		LAF
Scoring
72.3 #234	Points per game	69.1 #297
1.04 #265	Points per possession	1.03 #289
69.2 #168	Pace (possessions)	67.2 #274
Shooting
52.6 #118	Effective FG%	49.3 #278
34.3 #152	3-point %	32.1 #273
40.8 #151	3-point attempt rate	39.8 #173
39.5 #68	Free throw rate	32.5 #249
Possessions
19.1 #323	Turnover rate	15.3 #89
25.2 #337	Offensive rebound rate	25.8 #326
14.0 #149	Assists per game	13.6 #175
Defense
73.9 #154	Points allowed	75.4 #200
1.07 #132	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #275
49.3 #75	Opponent effective FG%	53.6 #286
36.0 #303	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #298
15.0 #289	Turnovers forced	15.1 #273
71.0 #107	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #88
5.5 #300	Steals per game	5.3 #316
3.3 #177	Blocks per game	2.3 #324

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Le Moyne

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Stonehill71–81
L@ New Haven59–66
Wvs FDU76–59
L@ Stonehill68–77
L@ C Connecticut77–78

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Holy Cross77–82
Wvs Army83–77
W@ Colgate70–69
Lvs American61–75
W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

Le Moyne Dolphins at Lafayette Leopards

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Le Moyne

Lafayette

Le Moyne has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Le Moyne

Lafayette