West Georgia Wolves at South Carolina Upstate Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 12:00 AM ETG.B. Hodge Center · at SC Upstate

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Georgia and SC Upstate
WGA	This season	UPST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UPST 76–73 · win probability UPST 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WGA has more of the edges

WGA 3, UPST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WGABig

Three-pointers

WGA hits 33.1% and allows 33.1%; UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 33.0% and 35.6% of their shots

WGASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WGA 31.5%, UPST 29.2%. Defensive: WGA 71.0%, UPST 68.6%

WGASmall

WGA offense vs UPST defense

Offense 278th of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

UPSTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WGA 29.2, UPST 32.8. Allowed: WGA 36.9, UPST 36.0

UPSTSmall

Home court

UPST at home. This season: UPST 0-0 at home, WGA 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WGA 31%, UPST 9%. Transfers in: WGA 5, UPST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WGA 49.6 and allows 53.4; UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0

Even

UPST offense vs WGA defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 312th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WGA has played the 270th-hardest schedule, UPST the 281st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: WGA plays 71.0 a game (75th fastest), UPST 70.5 (97th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WGA 15.9%, UPST 18.1%. Forced: WGA 14.7%, UPST 16.5%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UPST -2.5	—
Total	—	148.4	—
Projected score	—	WGA 72.9 · UPST 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UPST -1.4	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	WGA 34 · UPST 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WGA WWWWW	20-10	67%	9-6	—
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	6-6	—

Venue/role: WGA away; UPST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WGA OOUOU	16-14	53%	13-17
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WGA	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Georgia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs USI	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ VAN	No recent meeting

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs GASO	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ NCCU	W82–67WO
Dec 12	@ DAV	L59–62WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WGA 1–0 UPSTWGA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WGA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2025-26	UPST 64 @ WGA 72	WGA -2.5	WGA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Georgia

30 games played

Straight up

13-17

43% wins

Against the spread

20-10

67% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1743%

L L W W W L W L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1067%

L W W W W W W L L W W W W L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O U U O O U O O O O U U O O U U U O U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NEB	L 53-86	+24.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 10	@UCLA	L 62-83	+30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsCIT	W 100-92	-6.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 17	@TNTC	W 61-59	+4.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 21	vsUPST	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 23	@GT	L 66-82	+18.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 1	@TROY	W 93-89	+17.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 182
Dec 6	vsTNTC	L 59-87	-1.5	L −29.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 13	vsGASO	L 85-91	+3.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 22	@UGA	L 74-103	+36.5	W +7.5	173.5	O 177
Jan 1	vsBELL	W 87-85	+1.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 3	vsEKU	W 88-76	+1.5	W +13.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 8	@UNF	W 85-73	-2.5	W +9.5	164.5	U 158
Jan 10	@JAX	L 43-75	+1.5	L −30.5	141.5	U 118
Jan 15	@STET	L 86-95	-1.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 181
Jan 17	@FGCU	L 72-90	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsCARK	L 65-86	+3.5	L −17.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 24	vsQUC	W 74-66	+7.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	@BELL	L 74-77	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 31	vsAPSU	L 78-81	+7.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 159
Feb 5	vsUNF	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	166.5	U 154
Feb 7	vsJAX	W 87-73	+1.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 160
Feb 11	@UNA	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 14	@CARK	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 18	@EKU	L 80-81	+7.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	@QUC	L 84-91	+11.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	vsLIP	W 84-78	+5.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsUNA	W 75-63	-4.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 138
Mar 4	vsUNF	W 93-85	-3.5	W +4.5	160.5	O 178
Mar 6	vsQUC	L 63-71	+8.5	W +0.5	164.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 53-86

−8.5

UCLA

L 62-83

+9.5

CIT

W 100-92

+1.5

TNTC

W 61-59

+6.5

UPST

W 72-64

+5.5

L 66-82

+2.5

TROY

W 93-89

+21.5

TNTC

L 59-87

−29.5

GASO

L 85-91

−2.5

UGA

L 74-103

+7.5

BELL

W 87-85

+3.5

EKU

W 88-76

+13.5

UNF

W 85-73

+9.5

JAX

L 43-75

−30.5

STET

L 86-95

−10.5

FGCU

L 72-90

−8.5

CARK

L 65-86

−17.5

QUC

W 74-66

+15.5

BELL

L 74-77

−0.5

APSU

L 78-81

+4.5

UNF

L 73-81

−13.5

JAX

W 87-73

+15.5

UNA

W 82-73

+10.5

CARK

L 62-79

−6.5

EKU

L 80-81

+6.5

QUC

L 84-91

+4.5

LIP

W 84-78

+11.5

UNA

W 75-63

+7.5

UNF

W 93-85

+4.5

QUC

L 63-71

+0.5

covered 20didn’t cover 10avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 53-86

−14.5

UCLA

L 62-83

−1.5

CIT

W 100-92

+41.5

TNTC

W 61-59

−32.5

UPST

W 72-64

−17.5

L 66-82

+3.5

TROY

W 93-89

+31.5

TNTC

L 59-87

−4.5

GASO

L 85-91

+21.5

UGA

L 74-103

+3.5

BELL

W 87-85

+20.5

EKU

W 88-76

+7.5

UNF

W 85-73

−6.5

JAX

L 43-75

−23.5

STET

L 86-95

+29.5

FGCU

L 72-90

+9.5

CARK

L 65-86

−3.5

QUC

W 74-66

−22.5

BELL

L 74-77

−0.5

APSU

L 78-81

+8.5

UNF

L 73-81

−12.5

JAX

W 87-73

+21.5

UNA

W 82-73

+9.5

CARK

L 62-79

−9.5

EKU

L 80-81

+6.5

QUC

L 84-91

+13.5

LIP

W 84-78

+8.5

UNA

W 75-63

−8.5

UNF

W 93-85

+17.5

QUC

L 63-71

−30.5

over 16under 14avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC Upstate has the better starters

Position by position: West Georgia 0, SC Upstate 1, even 4

West GeorgiaBetterSC Upstate

G C. Lewless12.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 37

No call

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

G L. Hutchinson TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 6

UPSTBig

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

G J. Redmond TR6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 26

No call

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F K. Chime5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 34

No call

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

F D. Simon TR2.9 pts · 2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

West GeorgiaBetterSC Upstate

WGA offense278th of 366 · -8.5

WGASmall

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

WGA defense312th of 366 · -8.1

Even

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

UPSTBig

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestWGA betterUPST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Georgia

Guards

C. Lewless29 minL. Hutchinson17 min · TRJ. Redmond17 min · TRC. Merritt4 minA. Williams2 min · TRM. Young1 min

Forwards

K. Chime20 minD. Simon10 min · TRX. Shegog8 minM. Destremau7 min · TRM. SmithNewA. SempereNew

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WGA75.3 #156

UPST71.0 #265

Points per possession

WGA1.06 #224

UPST1.00 #324

Pace (possessions)

WGA71.0 #75

UPST70.5 #97

Shooting

Effective FG%

WGA49.6 #261

UPST48.3 #307

3-point %

WGA33.1 #222

UPST31.4 #308

3-point attempt rate

WGA33.0 #316

UPST35.6 #256

Free throw rate

WGA29.2 #329

UPST32.8 #239

Possessions

Turnover rate

WGA15.9 #130

UPST18.1 #274

Offensive rebound rate

WGA31.5 #142

UPST29.2 #231

Assists per game

WGA12.3 #265

UPST11.7 #304

Defense

Points allowed

WGA80.5 #326

UPST75.7 #210

Points allowed per possession

WGA1.13 #297

UPST1.08 #170

Opponent effective FG%

WGA53.4 #281

UPST51.0 #156

Opponent 3-point %

WGA33.1 #129

UPST35.6 #289

Turnovers forced

WGA14.7 #312

UPST16.5 #185

Defensive rebound rate

WGA71.0 #102

UPST68.6 #224

Steals per game

WGA6.4 #191

UPST6.1 #220

Blocks per game

WGA4.7 #25

UPST4.7 #24

WGA		UPST
Scoring
75.3 #156	Points per game	71.0 #265
1.06 #224	Points per possession	1.00 #324
71.0 #75	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #97
Shooting
49.6 #261	Effective FG%	48.3 #307
33.1 #222	3-point %	31.4 #308
33.0 #316	3-point attempt rate	35.6 #256
29.2 #329	Free throw rate	32.8 #239
Possessions
15.9 #130	Turnover rate	18.1 #274
31.5 #142	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #231
12.3 #265	Assists per game	11.7 #304
Defense
80.5 #326	Points allowed	75.7 #210
1.13 #297	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #170
53.4 #281	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #156
33.1 #129	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #289
14.7 #312	Turnovers forced	16.5 #185
71.0 #102	Defensive rebound rate	68.6 #224
6.4 #191	Steals per game	6.1 #220
4.7 #25	Blocks per game	4.7 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Georgia

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Queens University Royals63–71
Wvs North Florida93–85
Wvs North Alabama75–63
Wvs Lipscomb84–78
L@ Queens University Royals84–91

A week or more of rest.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

West Georgia Wolves at South Carolina Upstate Spartans

What could decide it: WGA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

West Georgia

SC Upstate

SC Upstate has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Georgia

SC Upstate