Niagara Purple Eagles vs Maine Black Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 12:00 PM ETKirby Sports Center · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Niagara and Maine
NIA	This season	ME
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ME 66–66 · win probability ME 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 131.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ME has more of the edges

NIA 1, ME 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MEBig

NIA offense vs ME defense

Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings

MEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NIA 26.6, ME 38.4. Allowed: NIA 33.8, ME 33.9

NIASmall

ME offense vs NIA defense

Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings

MESmall

Three-pointers

NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%; ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%. Threes are 40.5% and 37.0% of their shots

MESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NIA 18.9%, ME 19.2%. Forced: NIA 16.6%, ME 19.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8; ME 49.6 and allows 50.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NIA 15%, ME 31%. Transfers in: NIA 5, ME 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NIA 24.8%, ME 19.7%. Defensive: NIA 67.1%, ME 65.7%

Context

Schedule so far

NIA has played the 334th-hardest schedule, ME the 319th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 64 possessions: NIA plays 63.4 a game (364th fastest), ME 64.9 (348th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ME -0.0	—
Total	—	131.5	—
Projected score	—	NIA 65.7 · ME 65.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NIA -0.1	—
1H total	61.6	—
1H projected score	NIA 30.9 · ME 30.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NIA WLLWW	13-16	45%	0-1	—
ME WWLLW	14-17	45%	2-0	—

Venue/role: NIA neutral site; ME neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIA OOUOO	14-15	48%	7-22
ME UUOUU	12-19	39%	7-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIA	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ME	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Niagara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	vs MSM	L63–76LO
Dec 6	vs RID	L62–67LU

Maine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs STBK	L60–71LU
Dec 8	@ DEP	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs BU	W69–59WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Niagara

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L W W L L L L L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W W L L L L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U O U U O U O U U U O O U U U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DUQ	L 63-83	+17.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	@BING	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 10	vsDSU	W 68-57	-5.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 17	@LEM	L 68-74	+2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 21	@DUKE	L 42-100	+39.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 22	vsHOW	L 70-80	+4.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 29	vsDETM	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 5	@SIE	L 54-83	+12.5	L −16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	@SPU	L 43-71	+5.5	L −22.5	131.5	U 114
Dec 13	@MORG	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 15	@VCU	L 58-84	+30.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 2	vsSHU	W 64-61	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 4	vsFAIR	L 75-83	+3.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 158
Jan 9	@IONA	L 53-71	+10.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 124
Jan 11	@MAN	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 149
Jan 14	@CAN	W 59-54	+2.5	W +7.5	126.5	U 113
Jan 19	vsMSM	L 58-68	+3.5	L −6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	@FAIR	L 61-62	+10.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 24	@SHU	L 70-71	+9.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 30	vsSIE	L 79-82	+9.5	W +6.5	128.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsMRST	L 46-58	+9.5	L −2.5	128.5	U 104
Feb 3	vsCAN	W 65-56	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	U 121
Feb 7	@QUIN	L 55-56	+12.5	W +11.5	137.5	U 111
Feb 13	vsMAN	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 15	vsIONA	W 70-68	+3.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 138
Feb 20	@MSM	L 63-76	+7.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	@RID	L 62-67	-1.5	L −6.5	131.5	U 129
Feb 27	vsQUIN	W 78-76	+8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 154
Mar 1	vsMRMK	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	126.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

−2.5

BING

W 67-59

+10.5

DSU

W 68-57

+5.5

LEM

L 68-74

−3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−18.5

HOW

L 70-80

−5.5

DETM

L 66-70

−2.5

SIE

L 54-83

−16.5

SPU

L 43-71

−22.5

MORG

L 73-81

−6.5

VCU

L 58-84

+4.5

SHU

W 64-61

+4.5

FAIR

L 75-83

−4.5

IONA

L 53-71

−7.5

MAN

L 70-79

−3.5

CAN

W 59-54

+7.5

MSM

L 58-68

−6.5

FAIR

L 61-62

+9.5

SHU

L 70-71

+8.5

SIE

L 79-82

+6.5

MRST

L 46-58

−2.5

CAN

W 65-56

+6.5

QUIN

L 55-56

+11.5

MAN

L 69-76

−4.5

IONA

W 70-68

+5.5

MSM

L 63-76

−5.5

RID

L 62-67

−6.5

QUIN

W 78-76

+10.5

MRMK

L 66-73

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

+6.5

BING

W 67-59

−12.5

DSU

W 68-57

−12.5

LEM

L 68-74

+3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−4.5

HOW

L 70-80

+11.5

DETM

L 66-70

−6.5

SIE

L 54-83

+7.5

SPU

L 43-71

−17.5

MORG

L 73-81

+13.5

VCU

L 58-84

−1.5

SHU

W 64-61

−14.5

FAIR

L 75-83

+19.5

IONA

L 53-71

−16.5

MAN

L 70-79

+8.5

CAN

W 59-54

−13.5

MSM

L 58-68

−5.5

FAIR

L 61-62

−16.5

SHU

L 70-71

+1.5

SIE

L 79-82

+32.5

MRST

L 46-58

−24.5

CAN

W 65-56

−8.5

QUIN

L 55-56

−26.5

MAN

L 69-76

+8.5

IONA

W 70-68

+5.5

MSM

L 63-76

+8.5

RID

L 62-67

−2.5

QUIN

W 78-76

+17.5

MRMK

L 66-73

+12.5

over 14under 15avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maine

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W W L W L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

W L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W L W L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O U O U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsLONG	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	vsSIE	L 60-64	+9.5	W +5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OHIO	L 57-79	+12.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	@M-OH	L 61-93	+17.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@BU	W 69-59	+8.5	W +18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCAN	L 43-70	-6.5	L −33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 21	@DREX	L 56-74	+10.5	L −7.5	129.5	O 130
Jan 3	vsBRY	L 51-56	+1.5	L −3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	@UMBC	L 62-69	+7.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	@NJIT	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 144
Jan 15	@UVM	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsUNH	L 48-65	-1.5	L −18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsUALB	W 52-49	+2.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	vsBING	W 79-63	-5.5	W +10.5	124.5	O 142
Jan 31	@UML	L 77-91	+4.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	vsUVM	W 76-70	+8.5	W +14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	@BRY	L 67-73	+2.5	L −3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	vsUMBC	L 62-78	+3.5	L −12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	vsNJIT	L 58-67	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 125
Feb 21	@UNH	W 61-58	+3.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@UALB	W 70-59	+4.5	W +15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	@BING	L 67-74	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 141
Mar 3	vsUML	L 56-67	+1.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	@NJIT	L 58-60	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

LONG

L 61-65

+1.5

SIE

L 60-64

+5.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−9.5

M-OH

L 61-93

−14.5

W 69-59

+18.5

CAN

L 43-70

−33.5

DREX

L 56-74

−7.5

BRY

L 51-56

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-69

+0.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+5.5

UVM

L 62-67

+9.5

UNH

L 48-65

−18.5

UALB

W 52-49

+5.5

BING

W 79-63

+10.5

UML

L 77-91

−9.5

UVM

W 76-70

+14.5

BRY

L 67-73

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-78

−12.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−7.5

UNH

W 61-58

+6.5

UALB

W 70-59

+15.5

BING

L 67-74

−8.5

UML

L 56-67

−9.5

NJIT

L 58-60

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

LONG

L 61-65

−12.5

SIE

L 60-64

−3.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−2.5

M-OH

L 61-93

+14.5

W 69-59

−0.5

CAN

L 43-70

−14.5

DREX

L 56-74

+0.5

BRY

L 51-56

−18.5

UMBC

L 62-69

−2.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+13.5

UVM

L 62-67

−1.5

UNH

L 48-65

−16.5

UALB

W 52-49

−30.5

BING

W 79-63

+17.5

UML

L 77-91

+31.5

UVM

W 76-70

+15.5

BRY

L 67-73

+11.5

UMBC

L 62-78

+4.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−12.5

UNH

W 61-58

−16.5

UALB

W 70-59

−1.5

BING

L 67-74

+7.5

UML

L 56-67

−16.5

NJIT

L 58-60

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Niagara 1, Maine 1, even 3

NiagaraBetterMaine

G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27

Even

G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23

G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11

Even

G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15

Even

G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7

MESmall

F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33

G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43

NIASmall

F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

NiagaraBetterMaine

NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3

MEBig

ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5

NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0

NIASmall

ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7

Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players

MESmall

Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Bench-1.5 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestNIA betterME betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Niagara

Guards

T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min

Forwards

V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew

Maine

Guards

D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew

Forwards

A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NIA63.3 #355

ME61.2 #364

Points per possession

NIA1.00 #330

ME0.95 #356

Pace (possessions)

NIA63.4 #364

ME64.9 #348

Shooting

Effective FG%

NIA50.5 #214

ME49.6 #263

3-point %

NIA33.7 #188

ME31.2 #314

3-point attempt rate

NIA40.5 #159

ME37.0 #231

Free throw rate

NIA26.6 #353

ME38.4 #93

Possessions

Turnover rate

NIA18.9 #318

ME19.2 #328

Offensive rebound rate

NIA24.8 #344

ME19.7 #364

Assists per game

NIA13.8 #162

ME11.8 #300

Defense

Points allowed

NIA71.7 #98

ME68.5 #39

Points allowed per possession

NIA1.13 #300

ME1.05 #90

Opponent effective FG%

NIA52.8 #260

ME50.6 #136

Opponent 3-point %

NIA35.3 #268

ME29.4 #4

Turnovers forced

NIA16.6 #177

ME19.3 #38

Defensive rebound rate

NIA67.1 #297

ME65.7 #322

Steals per game

NIA5.6 #284

ME7.7 #57

Blocks per game

NIA2.8 #254

ME3.2 #194

NIA		ME
Scoring
63.3 #355	Points per game	61.2 #364
1.00 #330	Points per possession	0.95 #356
63.4 #364	Pace (possessions)	64.9 #348
Shooting
50.5 #214	Effective FG%	49.6 #263
33.7 #188	3-point %	31.2 #314
40.5 #159	3-point attempt rate	37.0 #231
26.6 #353	Free throw rate	38.4 #93
Possessions
18.9 #318	Turnover rate	19.2 #328
24.8 #344	Offensive rebound rate	19.7 #364
13.8 #162	Assists per game	11.8 #300
Defense
71.7 #98	Points allowed	68.5 #39
1.13 #300	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #90
52.8 #260	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #136
35.3 #268	Opponent 3-point %	29.4 #4
16.6 #177	Turnovers forced	19.3 #38
67.1 #297	Defensive rebound rate	65.7 #322
5.6 #284	Steals per game	7.7 #57
2.8 #254	Blocks per game	3.2 #194

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Merrimack66–73
Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
L@ Rider62–67
L@ Mount St Marys63–76
Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ NJIT58–60
Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
L@ Binghamton67–74
W@ UAlbany70–59
W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Niagara Purple Eagles vs Maine Black Bears

What could decide it: ME has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Niagara

Maine

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Niagara

Maine