Loyola Chicago Ramblers at Massachusetts Minutemen: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ETMullins Center · at UMass

#209MASSUMass

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Loyola Chicago and UMass
LUC	This season	MASS
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LUC 76–73 · win probability LUC 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MASS has more of the edges

LUC 3, MASS 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MASSBig

Three-pointers

LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%; MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 47.7% and 35.4% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: LUC plays 66.1 a game (309th fastest), MASS 72.7 (21st). Faster games mean more points

MASSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LUC 19.8%, MASS 17.8%. Forced: LUC 12.9%, MASS 16.9%

LUCBig

LUC offense vs MASS defense

Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings

MASSBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LUC 30.5%, MASS 33.3%. Defensive: LUC 70.3%, MASS 73.9%

LUCSmall

MASS offense vs LUC defense

Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings

LUCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LUC 34.8, MASS 37.0. Allowed: LUC 33.6, MASS 44.6

Context

Schedule so far

LUC has played the 112th-hardest schedule, MASS the 181st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MASSSmall

Home court

MASS at home. This season: MASS 0-0 at home, LUC 0-0 away

MASSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0; MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9

MASSSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LUC 22%, MASS 46%. Transfers in: LUC 9, MASS 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LUC -3.5	—
Total	—	148.7	—
Projected score	—	LUC 76.1 · MASS 72.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LUC -2.2	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	LUC 35.9 · MASS 33.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LUC WWWWW	13-20	39%	4-7	—
MASS LLWWL	13-19	41%	5-10	—

Venue/role: LUC away; MASS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LUC UUUOU	15-18	45%	9-24
MASS OUOOU	20-12	63%	16-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LUC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
MASS	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Loyola Chicago

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	@ HOW	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs IUIN	No recent meeting

UMass

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ EMU	W70–67LU
Dec 6	vs WAKE	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs WMU	W85–82LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LUC 3–0 MASSLUC leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · LUC has won the last 3 meetings · LUC 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2024-25	LUC 74 @ MASS 51	MASS +3.5	LUC W
Jan 17, 2023-24	MASS 78 @ LUC 79	LUC -4.5	MASS W
Feb 14, 2022-23	LUC 64 @ MASS 62	MASS -4.5	LUC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola Chicago

33 games played

Straight up

9-24

27% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2427%

W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O U U O U U U U O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsNIU	L 59-76	-13.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsUNI	L 51-72	+8.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsSJSU	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 114
Dec 2	vsCMU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 6	vsPRIN	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 14	vsCHST	L 75-84	-15.5	L −24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 17	@SF	L 71-85	+11.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsSCU	W 80-78	+15.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 31	@URI	W 61-57	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsDAY	L 68-70	+7.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 7	vsDAV	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	@GW	L 66-101	+14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 13	vsGMU	L 74-82	+11.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 16	@DAY	L 51-78	+16.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 20	@SBU	L 70-84	+10.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsDUQ	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 27	vsJOES	L 64-85	+1.5	L −19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 30	@VCU	L 75-89	+18.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	vsLAS	W 71-61	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 6	@DAV	L 64-84	+9.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 13	vsSLU	L 59-86	+17.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Feb 18	@FOR	L 59-62	+8.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 121
Feb 21	@JOES	L 61-75	+9.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsRICH	W 69-66	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 4	@SLU	L 65-79	+21.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 144
Mar 7	vsGW	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsRICH	W 75-67	+4.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 12	vsDAV	L 59-64	+5.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

NIU

L 59-76

−30.5

UNI

L 51-72

−12.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−10.5

CMU

W 83-72

+4.5

PRIN

W 73-68

−1.5

CHST

L 75-84

−24.5

L 71-85

−2.5

SCU

W 80-78

+17.5

URI

W 61-57

+13.5

DAY

L 68-70

+5.5

DAV

L 64-79

−13.5

L 66-101

−20.5

GMU

L 74-82

+3.5

DAY

L 51-78

−10.5

SBU

L 70-84

−3.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−6.5

JOES

L 64-85

−19.5

VCU

L 75-89

+4.5

LAS

W 71-61

+7.5

DAV

L 64-84

−10.5

SLU

L 59-86

−9.5

FOR

L 59-62

+5.5

JOES

L 61-75

−4.5

RICH

W 69-66

+5.5

SLU

L 65-79

+7.5

W 68-62

+15.5

RICH

W 75-67

+12.5

DAV

L 59-64

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

NIU

L 59-76

−13.5

UNI

L 51-72

−11.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−22.5

CMU

W 83-72

+14.5

PRIN

W 73-68

+4.5

CHST

L 75-84

+18.5

L 71-85

+12.5

SCU

W 80-78

+6.5

URI

W 61-57

−27.5

DAY

L 68-70

−2.5

DAV

L 64-79

+6.5

L 66-101

+12.5

GMU

L 74-82

+15.5

DAY

L 51-78

−12.5

SBU

L 70-84

+6.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−22.5

JOES

L 64-85

+5.5

VCU

L 75-89

+13.5

LAS

W 71-61

−8.5

DAV

L 64-84

+7.5

SLU

L 59-86

−10.5

FOR

L 59-62

−14.5

JOES

L 61-75

−6.5

RICH

W 69-66

−11.5

SLU

L 65-79

−11.5

W 68-62

−18.5

RICH

W 75-67

+0.5

DAV

L 59-64

−9.5

over 15under 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UMass

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-12

63% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L W W W L L W W W W W L L L L W W L W W L W W L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L W L L L L W W W W W L L W W L L L L W W L L L W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1263%

U U O O U O U O U O O U O O O O O U O U O U O O O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRSH	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsUALB	W 83-62	-9.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 13	vsLEM	W 94-80	-16.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 16	vsCCSU	W 84-77	-12.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 161
Nov 21	vsCOFC	L 65-69	+3.5	L −0.5	161.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsGB	L 75-79	-5.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 154
Nov 24	vsORST	W 73-65	+3.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 138
Dec 3	vsHARV	W 78-71	-5.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	vsUML	W 80-60	-11.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 140
Dec 10	vsBC	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsFSU	W 103-95	+12.5	W +20.5	165.5	O 198
Dec 20	vsKENT	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 128
Dec 30	@EMU	L 74-80	-2.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 3	vsBGSU	L 100-101	+1.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 6	@OHIO	L 83-86	+4.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsBALL	W 79-71	-10.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 13	@WMU	W 85-82	-5.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 167
Jan 17	@NIU	L 68-70	-8.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	vsTOL	W 84-82	-2.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 23	@BUF	W 68-67	+1.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 135
Jan 27	@M-OH	L 84-86	+9.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 170
Jan 31	vsEMU	W 70-67	-8.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 137
Feb 3	vsCMU	W 95-89	-11.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 184
Feb 7	@CCU	L 91-94	-2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 185
Feb 13	@AKR	L 92-99	+12.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 191
Feb 17	vsM-OH	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 163
Feb 21	vsBUF	L 82-86	-7.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 168
Feb 24	@BALL	L 73-74	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 147
Feb 28	@BGSU	L 62-81	+3.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 143
Mar 3	vsOHIO	W 94-82	-1.5	W +10.5	156.5	O 176
Mar 12	vsM-OH	W 87-83	+6.5	W +10.5	161.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsTOL	L 67-77	+2.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRSH

L 72-78

−10.5

UALB

W 83-62

+11.5

LEM

W 94-80

−2.5

CCSU

W 84-77

−5.5

COFC

L 65-69

−0.5

L 75-79

−9.5

ORST

W 73-65

+11.5

HARV

W 78-71

+1.5

UML

W 80-60

+8.5

W 76-74

+3.5

FSU

W 103-95

+20.5

KENT

L 59-69

−8.5

EMU

L 74-80

−8.5

BGSU

L 100-101

+0.5

OHIO

L 83-86

+1.5

BALL

W 79-71

−2.5

WMU

W 85-82

−2.5

NIU

L 68-70

−10.5

TOL

W 84-82

−0.5

BUF

W 68-67

+2.5

M-OH

L 84-86

+7.5

EMU

W 70-67

−5.5

CMU

W 95-89

−5.5

CCU

L 91-94

−5.5

AKR

L 92-99

+5.5

M-OH

L 77-86

−5.5

BUF

L 82-86

−11.5

BALL

L 73-74

−4.5

BGSU

L 62-81

−15.5

OHIO

W 94-82

+10.5

M-OH

W 87-83

+10.5

TOL

L 67-77

−7.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRSH

L 72-78

−2.5

UALB

W 83-62

−10.5

LEM

W 94-80

+20.5

CCSU

W 84-77

+16.5

COFC

L 65-69

−27.5

L 75-79

+7.5

ORST

W 73-65

−11.5

HARV

W 78-71

+5.5

UML

W 80-60

−15.5

W 76-74

+6.5

FSU

W 103-95

+32.5

KENT

L 59-69

−35.5

EMU

L 74-80

+5.5

BGSU

L 100-101

+48.5

OHIO

L 83-86

+8.5

BALL

W 79-71

+2.5

WMU

W 85-82

+9.5

NIU

L 68-70

−19.5

TOL

W 84-82

+1.5

BUF

W 68-67

−24.5

M-OH

L 84-86

+5.5

EMU

W 70-67

−11.5

CMU

W 95-89

+31.5

CCU

L 91-94

+37.5

AKR

L 92-99

+27.5

M-OH

L 77-86

−0.5

BUF

L 82-86

+16.5

BALL

L 73-74

+3.5

BGSU

L 62-81

−7.5

OHIO

W 94-82

+19.5

M-OH

W 87-83

+8.5

TOL

L 67-77

−14.5

over 20under 12avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Position by position: Loyola Chicago 3, UMass 0, even 2

Loyola ChicagoBetterUMass

G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 58

LUCSmall

G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29

G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 91

LUCBig

G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

Even

G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

Even

F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62

F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65

LUCBig

F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0

Loyola ChicagoBetterUMass

LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9

LUCSmall

MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5

LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2

LUCSmall

MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

LUCBig

Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players

LUCSmall

Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Bench+0.6 · 5 players

LUCSmall

Bench-1.3 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLUC betterMASS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Loyola Chicago

Guards

D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR

Forwards

E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew

Centers

J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew

UMass

Guards

D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew

Forwards

J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LUC66.8 #337

MASS79.9 #68

Points per possession

LUC1.01 #313

MASS1.10 #144

Pace (possessions)

LUC66.1 #309

MASS72.7 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

LUC49.8 #246

MASS53.1 #99

3-point %

LUC31.7 #296

MASS35.2 #100

3-point attempt rate

LUC47.7 #27

MASS35.4 #265

Free throw rate

LUC34.8 #188

MASS37.0 #130

Possessions

Turnover rate

LUC19.8 #343

MASS17.8 #263

Offensive rebound rate

LUC30.5 #179

MASS33.3 #80

Assists per game

LUC13.9 #151

MASS16.7 #30

Defense

Points allowed

LUC75.8 #212

MASS78.8 #288

Points allowed per possession

LUC1.14 #315

MASS1.09 #189

Opponent effective FG%

LUC52.0 #214

MASS52.9 #262

Opponent 3-point %

LUC36.8 #342

MASS33.0 #121

Turnovers forced

LUC12.9 #357

MASS16.9 #162

Defensive rebound rate

LUC70.3 #146

MASS73.9 #20

Steals per game

LUC4.1 #363

MASS6.6 #164

Blocks per game

LUC3.8 #101

MASS2.2 #334

LUC		MASS
Scoring
66.8 #337	Points per game	79.9 #68
1.01 #313	Points per possession	1.10 #144
66.1 #309	Pace (possessions)	72.7 #21
Shooting
49.8 #246	Effective FG%	53.1 #99
31.7 #296	3-point %	35.2 #100
47.7 #27	3-point attempt rate	35.4 #265
34.8 #188	Free throw rate	37.0 #130
Possessions
19.8 #343	Turnover rate	17.8 #263
30.5 #179	Offensive rebound rate	33.3 #80
13.9 #151	Assists per game	16.7 #30
Defense
75.8 #212	Points allowed	78.8 #288
1.14 #315	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #189
52.0 #214	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #262
36.8 #342	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #121
12.9 #357	Turnovers forced	16.9 #162
70.3 #146	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #20
4.1 #363	Steals per game	6.6 #164
3.8 #101	Blocks per game	2.2 #334

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Loyola Chicago

9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Davidson59–64
Wvs Richmond75–67
Wvs G Washington68–62
L@ Saint Louis65–79
Wvs Richmond69–66

A week or more of rest.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Toledo67–77
Wvs Miami OH87–83
Wvs Ohio94–82
L@ Bowling Green62–81
L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Chicago Ramblers at Massachusetts Minutemen

What could decide it: MASS has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola Chicago

UMass

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Loyola Chicago

UMass