1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 2
  3. MASS @ EMU
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Massachusetts Minutemen at Eastern Michigan Eagles

Gervin GameAbove Center · at E Michigan · Conference game
#209MASSUMass
@
#188EMUE Michigan
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MASSThis seasonEMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects EMU 77–72 · win probability EMU 65%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MASS has more of the edges

MASS 2, EMU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MASSBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MASS 33.3%, EMU 27.8%. Defensive: MASS 73.9%, EMU 70.9%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: MASS plays 72.7 a game (21st fastest), EMU 68.9 (190th). Faster games mean more points
MASSSmall
Three-pointers
MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%; EMU hits 32.4% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 35.4% and 31.8% of their shots
EMUSmall
Home court
EMU at home. This season: EMU 0-0 at home, MASS 0-0 away
Even
EMU offense vs MASS defense
Offense 206th of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MASS 17.8%, EMU 17.5%. Forced: MASS 16.9%, EMU 15.5%
Context
Schedule so far
MASS has played the 181st-hardest schedule, EMU the 157th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MASS 37.0, EMU 29.3. Allowed: MASS 44.6, EMU 35.5
Even
MASS offense vs EMU defense
Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 188th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MASS 46%, EMU 37%. Transfers in: MASS 2, EMU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9; EMU 49.6 and allows 50.3
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—EMU -4.5—
Total—149.4—
Projected score—MASS 72.4 · EMU 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadEMU -2.6—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreMASS 33.6 · EMU 36.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

E Michigan has the better starters

Position by position: UMass 1, E Michigan 2, even 2
UMassBetterE Michigan
G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29
EMUBig
G J. Fitzpatrick TR15.4 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 75
G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
Even
G E. Richards TR9.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 32
G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36
MASSSmall
G B. Green4.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 9
F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62
Even
F M. Habhab14.2 pts · 8.3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 64
F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0
EMUBig
F K. Brockhoff TR10.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 2 ast Score 44
UMassBetterE Michigan
MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2
Even
EMU defense188th of 366 · -4.4
MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5
Even
EMU offense206th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
EMUSmall
Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players
EMUSmall
Frontcourt+0.1 · 2 players
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
EMUSmall
Bench-0.3 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestMASS betterEMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMass
Guards
D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew
Forwards
J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew
E Michigan
Guards
J. Fitzpatrick36 min · TRE. Richards27 min · TRB. Green20 minG. Lawson18 minS. Harris17 min · TRD. PorterNew
Forwards
M. Habhab36 minK. Brockhoff22 min · TRK. JohnsonNewJ. WrightNewO. SuleimanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MASSEMU
Scoring
79.9 #68Points per game70.2 #282
1.10 #144Points per possession1.02 #298
72.7 #21Pace (possessions)68.9 #190
Shooting
53.1 #99Effective FG%49.6 #264
35.2 #1003-point %32.4 #259
35.4 #2653-point attempt rate31.8 #332
37.0 #130Free throw rate29.3 #325
Possessions
17.8 #263Turnover rate17.5 #235
33.3 #80Offensive rebound rate27.8 #273
16.7 #30Assists per game12.4 #261
Defense
78.8 #288Points allowed74.4 #169
1.09 #189Points allowed per possession1.07 #142
52.9 #262Opponent effective FG%50.3 #115
33.0 #121Opponent 3-point %32.9 #111
16.9 #162Turnovers forced15.5 #249
73.9 #20Defensive rebound rate70.9 #109
6.6 #164Steals per game5.7 #269
2.2 #334Blocks per game4.1 #61
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo67–77
  • Wvs Miami OH87–83
  • Wvs Ohio94–82
  • L@ Bowling Green62–81
  • L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.

E Michigan

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bowling Green69–77
  • L@ Buffalo67–72
  • Lvs Miami OH64–74
  • L@ Toledo75–94
  • Wvs C Michigan66–54

A week or more of rest.