Drake Bulldogs vs North Dakota State Bison: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM ETMountain America Center · Neutral site

#144DRKEDrake

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drake and N Dakota St
DRKE	This season	NDSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 75–72 · win probability DRKE 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NDSU has more of the edges

DRKE 2, NDSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NDSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DRKE 26.6%, NDSU 32.9%. Defensive: DRKE 70.1%, NDSU 74.5%

Context

Schedule so far

DRKE has played the 147th-hardest schedule, NDSU the 315th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NDSUBig

Three-pointers

DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%; NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 45.7% and 42.8% of their shots

NDSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DRKE 15.0%, NDSU 15.6%. Forced: DRKE 14.6%, NDSU 18.7%

DRKESmall

NDSU offense vs DRKE defense

Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings

NDSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6; NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0

DRKESmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DRKE 51%, NDSU 25%. Transfers in: DRKE 3, NDSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

DRKE offense vs NDSU defense

Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: DRKE plays 68.4 a game (209th fastest), NDSU 69.2 (169th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DRKE 33.5, NDSU 30.6. Allowed: DRKE 32.0, NDSU 29.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DRKE -3.0	—
Total	—	146.8	—
Projected score	—	DRKE 74.9 · NDSU 71.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DRKE -1.9	—
1H total	68.7	—
1H projected score	DRKE 35.3 · NDSU 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DRKE LLWWL	12-20	38%	4-2	—
NDSU WLWLL	18-14	56%	2-4	—

Venue/role: DRKE neutral site; NDSU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DRKE UUUOU	18-14	56%	12-20
NDSU OUUUO	15-17	47%	24-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DRKE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
NDSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drake

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs UNT	L54–57LU
Dec 5	@ MSU	No recent meeting
Dec 11	vs NCCU	No recent meeting

N Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs BOIS	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs UCD	L68–80LO
Dec 6	@ WSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DRKE 0–1 NDSUNDSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DRKE 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	NDSU 99 @ DRKE 94	DRKE -5.5	NDSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drake

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W L L W L W W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L W W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W L L L W L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O U U U O O U O U U U U O O O O O U O O O O O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsSIUE	L 59-61	-7.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@COFC	W 71-62	+7.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsLSU	L 62-71	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsGT	W 84-74	+4.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsWIU	W 108-57	-17.5	W +33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 5	vsUAB	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 143
Dec 13	vsNDSU	L 94-99	-5.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 18	@MUR	L 72-81	+7.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 153
Dec 21	@EVAN	W 66-65	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	vsILST	L 56-73	+4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 4	vsINST	W 74-72	-6.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 7	@BRAD	L 66-93	+6.5	L −20.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 10	vsBEL	L 76-78	+4.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 14	@SIU	W 76-73	+5.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 149
Jan 17	@UIC	L 67-74	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 21	vsMUR	W 101-90	+4.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 191
Jan 24	@INST	W 76-62	+3.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsEVAN	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBRAD	L 73-87	+2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 3	@BEL	L 90-103	+9.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 193
Feb 6	@ILST	L 76-86	+10.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	vsVAL	L 76-81	-3.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	vsUIC	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UNI	L 62-86	+8.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	vsSIU	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 127
Feb 25	@VAL	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 1	vsUNI	L 53-75	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsSIU	W 67-63	+5.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 130
Mar 6	vsBEL	W 100-79	+12.5	W +33.5	152.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsUIC	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−9.5

COFC

W 71-62

+16.5

LSU

L 62-71

+2.5

W 84-74

+14.5

WIU

W 108-57

+33.5

UAB

L 69-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 94-99

−10.5

MUR

L 72-81

−1.5

EVAN

W 66-65

+3.5

ILST

L 56-73

−12.5

INST

W 74-72

−4.5

BRAD

L 66-93

−20.5

BEL

L 76-78

+2.5

SIU

W 76-73

+8.5

UIC

L 67-74

−1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+15.5

INST

W 76-62

+17.5

EVAN

W 82-78

−4.5

BRAD

L 73-87

−11.5

BEL

L 90-103

−3.5

ILST

L 76-86

+0.5

VAL

L 76-81

−8.5

UIC

L 70-80

−8.5

UNI

L 62-86

−15.5

SIU

L 61-66

−3.5

VAL

L 71-74

−0.5

UNI

L 53-75

−17.5

SIU

W 67-63

+9.5

BEL

W 100-79

+33.5

UIC

L 51-72

−16.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−22.5

COFC

W 71-62

−20.5

LSU

L 62-71

−18.5

W 84-74

+20.5

WIU

W 108-57

+26.5

UAB

L 69-74

−5.5

NDSU

L 94-99

+47.5

MUR

L 72-81

−3.5

EVAN

W 66-65

−10.5

ILST

L 56-73

−16.5

INST

W 74-72

−3.5

BRAD

L 66-93

+14.5

BEL

L 76-78

+5.5

SIU

W 76-73

+4.5

UIC

L 67-74

+1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+34.5

INST

W 76-62

−13.5

EVAN

W 82-78

+16.5

BRAD

L 73-87

+9.5

BEL

L 90-103

+38.5

ILST

L 76-86

+17.5

VAL

L 76-81

+12.5

UIC

L 70-80

+3.5

UNI

L 62-86

+9.5

SIU

L 61-66

−22.5

VAL

L 71-74

−1.5

UNI

L 53-75

−9.5

SIU

W 67-63

−10.5

BEL

W 100-79

+26.5

UIC

L 51-72

−21.5

over 18under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Dakota St

32 games played

Straight up

24-8

75% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-875%

L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

W L W W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O O U O U U U O O O U O O O U U U U O U O U U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ORST	L 65-67	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 5	@UCD	L 68-80	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 11	vsCSUN	W 90-68	-4.5	W +17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 17	vsSIU	W 92-85	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsJXST	W 56-43	-3.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 99
Nov 28	@ARST	L 80-85	+3.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 3	@MONT	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 153
Dec 6	vsNAU	W 69-68	-12.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 11	@CSUB	W 80-69	-7.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	@DRKE	W 99-94	+5.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 21	vsUCI	L 73-74	-1.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	@UTEP	L 66-76	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 31	vsSDAK	W 84-61	-11.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsORU	W 79-77	-13.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 8	@KC	W 97-73	-9.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	@OMA	W 78-76	-5.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 14	vsSDST	W 76-65	-5.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsSTMN	W 68-65	-2.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	@DEN	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 159
Jan 24	@ORU	W 86-58	-10.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 31	@SDAK	W 89-84	-8.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 173
Feb 5	vsDEN	L 71-78	-12.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 149
Feb 7	vsOMA	W 92-84	-9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Feb 14	@UND	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 149
Feb 18	@SDST	W 74-66	-1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsKC	W 95-59	-19.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	@STMN	L 62-84	+3.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsUND	W 96-63	-11.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsORU	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsOMA	W 74-50	-8.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsUND	W 70-62	-11.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsMSU	L 67-92	+16.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

+7.5

UCD

L 68-80

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+17.5

SIU

W 92-85

+5.5

JXST

W 56-43

+9.5

ARST

L 80-85

−1.5

MONT

W 81-72

+12.5

NAU

W 69-68

−11.5

CSUB

W 80-69

+3.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+10.5

UCI

L 73-74

−2.5

UTEP

L 66-76

−12.5

SDAK

W 84-61

+11.5

ORU

W 79-77

−11.5

W 97-73

+14.5

OMA

W 78-76

−3.5

SDST

W 76-65

+5.5

STMN

W 68-65

+0.5

DEN

W 82-77

+0.5

ORU

W 86-58

+17.5

SDAK

W 89-84

−3.5

DEN

L 71-78

−19.5

OMA

W 92-84

−1.5

UND

W 83-66

+11.5

SDST

W 74-66

+6.5

W 95-59

+16.5

STMN

L 62-84

−18.5

UND

W 96-63

+21.5

ORU

W 76-65

−1.5

OMA

W 74-50

+15.5

UND

W 70-62

−3.5

MSU

L 67-92

−8.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

−12.5

UCD

L 68-80

+5.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+1.5

SIU

W 92-85

+23.5

JXST

W 56-43

−43.5

ARST

L 80-85

+4.5

MONT

W 81-72

−0.5

NAU

W 69-68

−10.5

CSUB

W 80-69

−0.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+47.5

UCI

L 73-74

+0.5

UTEP

L 66-76

+2.5

SDAK

W 84-61

−19.5

ORU

W 79-77

+9.5

W 97-73

+25.5

OMA

W 78-76

+6.5

SDST

W 76-65

−10.5

STMN

W 68-65

−18.5

DEN

W 82-77

−1.5

ORU

W 86-58

−7.5

SDAK

W 89-84

+18.5

DEN

L 71-78

−7.5

OMA

W 92-84

+29.5

UND

W 83-66

−0.5

SDST

W 74-66

−6.5

W 95-59

+5.5

STMN

L 62-84

−9.5

UND

W 96-63

+6.5

ORU

W 76-65

−6.5

OMA

W 74-50

−22.5

UND

W 70-62

−15.5

MSU

L 67-92

+14.5

over 15under 17avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Drake 1, N Dakota St 1, even 3

DrakeBetterN Dakota St

G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27

Even

G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19

G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42

Even

G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42

G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

NDSUSmall

G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79

F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21

No call

G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

DRKEBig

F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31

DrakeBetterN Dakota St

DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1

Even

NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3

DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5

DRKESmall

NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5

Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

DRKESmall

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestDRKE betterNDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drake

Guards

A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew

Forwards

G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew

N Dakota St

Guards

M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR

Forwards

K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DRKE73.9 #200

NDSU78.7 #87

Points per possession

DRKE1.08 #182

NDSU1.14 #76

Pace (possessions)

DRKE68.4 #209

NDSU69.2 #169

Shooting

Effective FG%

DRKE51.4 #179

NDSU53.2 #92

3-point %

DRKE34.0 #172

NDSU35.4 #93

3-point attempt rate

DRKE45.7 #53

NDSU42.8 #122

Free throw rate

DRKE33.5 #223

NDSU30.6 #289

Possessions

Turnover rate

DRKE15.0 #64

NDSU15.6 #108

Offensive rebound rate

DRKE26.6 #310

NDSU32.9 #89

Assists per game

DRKE13.1 #202

NDSU14.8 #97

Defense

Points allowed

DRKE76.3 #225

NDSU71.4 #90

Points allowed per possession

DRKE1.12 #261

NDSU1.03 #63

Opponent effective FG%

DRKE52.6 #246

NDSU52.0 #215

Opponent 3-point %

DRKE36.4 #323

NDSU33.9 #173

Turnovers forced

DRKE14.6 #315

NDSU18.7 #62

Defensive rebound rate

DRKE70.1 #155

NDSU74.5 #15

Steals per game

DRKE5.2 #319

NDSU7.7 #64

Blocks per game

DRKE2.9 #241

NDSU2.8 #265

DRKE		NDSU
Scoring
73.9 #200	Points per game	78.7 #87
1.08 #182	Points per possession	1.14 #76
68.4 #209	Pace (possessions)	69.2 #169
Shooting
51.4 #179	Effective FG%	53.2 #92
34.0 #172	3-point %	35.4 #93
45.7 #53	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #122
33.5 #223	Free throw rate	30.6 #289
Possessions
15.0 #64	Turnover rate	15.6 #108
26.6 #310	Offensive rebound rate	32.9 #89
13.1 #202	Assists per game	14.8 #97
Defense
76.3 #225	Points allowed	71.4 #90
1.12 #261	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #63
52.6 #246	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #215
36.4 #323	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #173
14.6 #315	Turnovers forced	18.7 #62
70.1 #155	Defensive rebound rate	74.5 #15
5.2 #319	Steals per game	7.7 #64
2.9 #241	Blocks per game	2.8 #265

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UIC51–72
Wvs Belmont100–79
Wvs S Illinois67–63
Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan St67–92
Wvs North Dakota70–62
Wvs Omaha74–50
Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

Drake Bulldogs vs North Dakota State Bison

What could decide it: NDSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

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ATS History · 2025-26

Drake

N Dakota St

The starting fives are even

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Matchup stats

Drake

N Dakota St