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  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. NDSU vs BOIS
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

North Dakota State Bison vs Boise State Broncos

Mountain America Center · Neutral site
#213NDSUN Dakota St
vs
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NDSUThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 80–68 · win probability BOIS 84%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOIS has more of the edges

NDSU 2, BOIS 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
NDSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, BOIS 14.6%
BOISBig
NDSU offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
BOISBig
BOIS offense vs NDSU defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings
BOISSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, BOIS 32.1
NDSUSmall
Three-pointers
NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 42.8% and 43.1% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, BOIS 76.4%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -11.5—
Total—148.0—
Projected score—NDSU 68.3 · BOIS 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -6.7—
1H total69.2—
1H projected scoreNDSU 31.3 · BOIS 38—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boise St has the better starters

Position by position: N Dakota St 0, Boise St 3, even 2
N Dakota StBetterBoise St
G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19
BOISBig
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42
BOISSmall
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
Even
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31
BOISSmall
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
N Dakota StBetterBoise St
NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5
BOISBig
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3
BOISSmall
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players
BOISBig
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
BOISSmall
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
NDSUSmall
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNDSU betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Dakota St
Guards
M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR
Forwards
K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NDSUBOIS
Scoring
78.7 #87Points per game77.4 #108
1.14 #76Points per possession1.13 #82
69.2 #169Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
53.2 #92Effective FG%52.2 #138
35.4 #933-point %34.3 #151
42.8 #1223-point attempt rate43.1 #114
30.6 #289Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
15.6 #108Turnover rate16.9 #195
32.9 #89Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
14.8 #97Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
71.4 #90Points allowed73.2 #137
1.03 #63Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
52.0 #215Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
33.9 #173Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
18.7 #62Turnovers forced14.6 #317
74.5 #15Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
7.7 #64Steals per game4.6 #350
2.8 #265Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St67–92
  • Wvs North Dakota70–62
  • Wvs Omaha74–50
  • Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
  • Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.