1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 3
  3. UCD @ NDSU
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 3

UC Davis Aggies at North Dakota State Bison

Scheels Center · at N Dakota St
#182UCDUC Davis
@
#213NDSUN Dakota St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCDThis seasonNDSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NDSU 75–72 · win probability NDSU 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NDSU has more of the edges

UCD 1, NDSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NDSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCD 25.2%, NDSU 32.9%. Defensive: UCD 69.5%, NDSU 74.5%
Context
Schedule so far
UCD has played the 189th-hardest schedule, NDSU the 315th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UCD plays 71.8 a game (39th fastest), NDSU 69.2 (169th). Faster games mean more points
NDSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCD 17.9%, NDSU 15.6%. Forced: UCD 19.8%, NDSU 18.7%
UCDSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCD 57%, NDSU 25%. Transfers in: UCD 4, NDSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NDSUSmall
Home court
NDSU at home. This season: NDSU 0-0 at home, UCD 0-0 away
Even
NDSU offense vs UCD defense
Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 171st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
UCD hits 34.4% and allows 33.8%; NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 43.5% and 42.8% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCD 51.8 and allows 51.7; NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCD 40.5, NDSU 30.6. Allowed: UCD 39.1, NDSU 29.2
Even
UCD offense vs NDSU defense
Offense 208th of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NDSU -2.5—
Total—146.4—
Projected score—UCD 72 · NDSU 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNDSU -1.4—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreUCD 33.6 · NDSU 34.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

N Dakota St has the better starters

Position by position: UC Davis 1, N Dakota St 2, even 2
UC DavisBetterN Dakota St
G C. Sevilla13.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 45
UCDSmall
G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19
G B. Fagbemi6.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 4.3 ast Score 53
Even
G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42
F I. Chappell8.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
NDSUBig
G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
F V. Abosi TR4.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 43
No call
G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
F O. Suljanovic5.3 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 12
NDSUSmall
F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31
UC DavisBetterN Dakota St
UCD offense208th of 366 · -6.3
Even
NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3
UCD defense171st of 366 · -3.9
Even
NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
UCDBig
Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 3 players
NDSUSmall
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
NDSUSmall
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestUCD betterNDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UC Davis
Guards
C. Sevilla32 minB. Fagbemi26 minJ. Stokes14 minC. Rawlins4 minC. Massamba4 min · TRY. Esso-EssisNew
Forwards
I. Chappell24 minV. Abosi17 min · TRO. Suljanovic14 minJ. Margrave10 min · TRN. NobleNewJ. DabrowskiNew
Centers
A. Szymczyk7 min · TR
N Dakota St
Guards
M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR
Forwards
K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCDNDSU
Scoring
76.1 #139Points per game78.7 #87
1.06 #234Points per possession1.14 #76
71.8 #39Pace (possessions)69.2 #169
Shooting
51.8 #157Effective FG%53.2 #92
34.4 #1493-point %35.4 #93
43.5 #1023-point attempt rate42.8 #122
40.5 #53Free throw rate30.6 #289
Possessions
17.9 #267Turnover rate15.6 #108
25.2 #334Offensive rebound rate32.9 #89
15.1 #83Assists per game14.8 #97
Defense
76.0 #217Points allowed71.4 #90
1.06 #104Points allowed per possession1.03 #63
51.7 #197Opponent effective FG%52.0 #215
33.8 #172Opponent 3-point %33.9 #173
19.8 #29Turnovers forced18.7 #62
69.5 #182Defensive rebound rate74.5 #15
7.5 #81Steals per game7.7 #64
2.7 #276Blocks per game2.8 #265
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Davis

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Fullerton70–82
  • Wvs Santa Barbara79–73
  • L@ UC Irvine69–79
  • W@ Long Beach St76–70
  • Lvs Hawai'i73–77

A week or more of rest.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St67–92
  • Wvs North Dakota70–62
  • Wvs Omaha74–50
  • Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
  • Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.