1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Dec 3
  3. IDST @ SUU
NCAAB · Thu, Dec 3

Idaho State Bengals at Southern Utah Thunderbirds

America First Events Center · at Southern Utah · Conference game
#344IDSTIdaho St
@
#267SUUSouthern Utah
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
IDSTThis seasonSUU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SUU 80–73 · win probability SUU 73%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IDST has more of the edges

IDST 3, SUU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
IDSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IDST 32.8%, SUU 28.8%. Defensive: IDST 72.1%, SUU 66.4%
SUUBig
SUU offense vs IDST defense
Offense 211th of 366 against a defense 349th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
IDST has played the 296th-hardest schedule, SUU the 186th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: IDST plays 67.3 a game (266th fastest), SUU 71.2 (62nd). Faster games mean more points
IDSTSmall
Three-pointers
IDST hits 33.6% and allows 34.5%; SUU hits 33.0% and allows 38.0%. Threes are 41.9% and 35.5% of their shots
IDSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IDST 17.1%, SUU 20.3%. Forced: IDST 14.6%, SUU 14.8%
SUUSmall
Home court
SUU at home. This season: SUU 0-0 at home, IDST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IDST 6%, SUU 27%. Transfers in: IDST 1, SUU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: IDST 38.0, SUU 33.1. Allowed: IDST 38.0, SUU 29.8
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: IDST 51.9 and allows 54.5; SUU 50.8 and allows 53.3
Even
IDST offense vs SUU defense
Offense 324th of 366 against a defense 329th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SUU -7.0—
Total—153.0—
Projected score—IDST 73 · SUU 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSUU -4.0—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreIDST 33.7 · SUU 37.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Idaho St 0, Southern Utah 0, even 5
Idaho StBetterSouthern Utah
G L. Birley0.5 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Johnson0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
G E. Harel TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G Z. Kidd0.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
G A. Goffe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F J. Feroah14 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
G J. Dorsey NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F J. Nicholls TR10.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 95
F Q. Patterson0.9 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Barclay4.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8
Idaho StBetterSouthern Utah
IDST offense324th of 366 · -10.6
Even
SUU defense329th of 366 · -8.6
IDST defense349th of 366 · -9.6
SUUBig
SUU offense211th of 366 · -6.4
Backcourt-0.3 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
SUUBig
Frontcourt+3.8 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestIDST betterSUU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Idaho St
Guards
L. Birley4 minE. Harel1 min · TRA. GoffeNewJ. DorseyNewM. MorrisNewT. VirgilNew
Forwards
Q. Patterson7 minM. JohnsonNewI. PalmerNewK. DeMuynckNewM. JohnsonNewB. LowenbachNew
Southern Utah
Guards
B. Johnson4 minZ. Kidd3 minD. SandersNewA. BrelandNewJ. BrownNewC. DegraffenriedNew
Forwards
J. Feroah31 minJ. Nicholls18 min · TRC. Barclay16 minJ. RiakNewJ. NichollsNewD. SmithNew
Centers
M. ProtsenkoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
IDSTSUU
Scoring
73.6 #213Points per game72.3 #235
1.10 #135Points per possession1.01 #310
67.3 #266Pace (possessions)71.2 #62
Shooting
51.9 #151Effective FG%50.8 #200
33.6 #1923-point %33.0 #231
41.9 #1373-point attempt rate35.5 #261
38.0 #104Free throw rate33.1 #235
Possessions
17.1 #213Turnover rate20.3 #352
32.8 #94Offensive rebound rate28.8 #239
11.8 #302Assists per game12.9 #223
Defense
77.6 #255Points allowed81.3 #335
1.14 #314Points allowed per possession1.14 #308
54.5 #315Opponent effective FG%53.3 #276
34.5 #220Opponent 3-point %38.0 #358
14.6 #316Turnovers forced14.8 #302
72.1 #63Defensive rebound rate66.4 #309
5.2 #322Steals per game5.2 #317
4.0 #78Blocks per game4.1 #60
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Idaho St

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland St78–85
  • Wvs N Arizona73–65
  • L@ Sacramento St65–83
  • Lvs Weber St73–83
  • Wvs Montana St91–76

A week or more of rest.

Southern Utah

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Arlington63–69
  • Lvs CA Baptist75–82
  • Lvs Utah Valley88–92
  • Wvs Utah Tech81–67
  • L@ Abilene Chrstn83–87

A week or more of rest.