Drake Bulldogs vs North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 4:30 PM ETMountain America Center · Neutral site

#144DRKEDrake

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drake and North Texas
DRKE	This season	UNT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNT 72–69 · win probability UNT 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNT has more of the edges

DRKE 1, UNT 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNTSmall

DRKE offense vs UNT defense

Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 66th, on the model’s ratings

UNTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DRKE 15.0%, UNT 16.8%. Forced: DRKE 14.6%, UNT 21.3%

UNTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DRKE 26.6%, UNT 33.5%. Defensive: DRKE 70.1%, UNT 67.6%

UNTSmall

Three-pointers

DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%; UNT hits 28.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 45.7% and 32.4% of their shots

DRKESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DRKE 33.5, UNT 39.6. Allowed: DRKE 32.0, UNT 45.1

Even

UNT offense vs DRKE defense

Offense 165th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DRKE has played the 147th-hardest schedule, UNT the 121st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: DRKE plays 68.4 a game (209th fastest), UNT 67.6 (245th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6; UNT 46.0 and allows 48.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DRKE 51%, UNT 45%. Transfers in: DRKE 3, UNT 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNT -2.9	—
Total	—	141.4	—
Projected score	—	DRKE 69.3 · UNT 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNT -1.6	—
1H total	66.2	—
1H projected score	DRKE 32.3 · UNT 33.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
DRKE LLWWL	12-20	38%	4-2	—
UNT LWLWW	17-14	55%	4-0	—

Venue/role: DRKE neutral site; UNT neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DRKE UUUOU	18-14	56%	12-20
UNT OUUOO	14-17	45%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DRKE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drake

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ MSU	No recent meeting
Dec 11	vs NCCU	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ EVAN	W82–78LO

North Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	vs BRAD	No recent meeting
Dec 6	vs MVSU	W83–42WO
Dec 13	vs TXST	W67–63LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DRKE 0–1 UNTUNT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DRKE 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 28, 2021-22	UNT 57 vs DRKE 54	DRKE -4	UNT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drake

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W L L W L W W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L W W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W L L L W L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O U U U O O U O U U U U O O O O O U O O O O O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsSIUE	L 59-61	-7.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@COFC	W 71-62	+7.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsLSU	L 62-71	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsGT	W 84-74	+4.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsWIU	W 108-57	-17.5	W +33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 5	vsUAB	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 143
Dec 13	vsNDSU	L 94-99	-5.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 18	@MUR	L 72-81	+7.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 153
Dec 21	@EVAN	W 66-65	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	vsILST	L 56-73	+4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 4	vsINST	W 74-72	-6.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 7	@BRAD	L 66-93	+6.5	L −20.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 10	vsBEL	L 76-78	+4.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 14	@SIU	W 76-73	+5.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 149
Jan 17	@UIC	L 67-74	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 21	vsMUR	W 101-90	+4.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 191
Jan 24	@INST	W 76-62	+3.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsEVAN	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBRAD	L 73-87	+2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 3	@BEL	L 90-103	+9.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 193
Feb 6	@ILST	L 76-86	+10.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	vsVAL	L 76-81	-3.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	vsUIC	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UNI	L 62-86	+8.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	vsSIU	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 127
Feb 25	@VAL	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 1	vsUNI	L 53-75	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsSIU	W 67-63	+5.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 130
Mar 6	vsBEL	W 100-79	+12.5	W +33.5	152.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsUIC	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−9.5

COFC

W 71-62

+16.5

LSU

L 62-71

+2.5

W 84-74

+14.5

WIU

W 108-57

+33.5

UAB

L 69-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 94-99

−10.5

MUR

L 72-81

−1.5

EVAN

W 66-65

+3.5

ILST

L 56-73

−12.5

INST

W 74-72

−4.5

BRAD

L 66-93

−20.5

BEL

L 76-78

+2.5

SIU

W 76-73

+8.5

UIC

L 67-74

−1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+15.5

INST

W 76-62

+17.5

EVAN

W 82-78

−4.5

BRAD

L 73-87

−11.5

BEL

L 90-103

−3.5

ILST

L 76-86

+0.5

VAL

L 76-81

−8.5

UIC

L 70-80

−8.5

UNI

L 62-86

−15.5

SIU

L 61-66

−3.5

VAL

L 71-74

−0.5

UNI

L 53-75

−17.5

SIU

W 67-63

+9.5

BEL

W 100-79

+33.5

UIC

L 51-72

−16.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−22.5

COFC

W 71-62

−20.5

LSU

L 62-71

−18.5

W 84-74

+20.5

WIU

W 108-57

+26.5

UAB

L 69-74

−5.5

NDSU

L 94-99

+47.5

MUR

L 72-81

−3.5

EVAN

W 66-65

−10.5

ILST

L 56-73

−16.5

INST

W 74-72

−3.5

BRAD

L 66-93

+14.5

BEL

L 76-78

+5.5

SIU

W 76-73

+4.5

UIC

L 67-74

+1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+34.5

INST

W 76-62

−13.5

EVAN

W 82-78

+16.5

BRAD

L 73-87

+9.5

BEL

L 90-103

+38.5

ILST

L 76-86

+17.5

VAL

L 76-81

+12.5

UIC

L 70-80

+3.5

UNI

L 62-86

+9.5

SIU

L 61-66

−22.5

VAL

L 71-74

−1.5

UNI

L 53-75

−9.5

SIU

W 67-63

−10.5

BEL

W 100-79

+26.5

UIC

L 51-72

−21.5

over 18under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

W W L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W L L L L W W W L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

W W W L W L L L L W W W W W L W W L L L L W W W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U U O U O U O U U U U O U O U O U O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsPV	W 72-69	-16.5	L −13.5	141.5	U 141
Dec 2	vsHCU	W 77-75	-11.5	L −9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsTCU	L 55-65	+9.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 14	@USA	W 58-57	+1.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	vsSCU	L 60-63	+12.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 31	@MEM	L 48-57	+9.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 105
Jan 4	vsTLSA	W 72-67	+2.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 7	vsUSF	L 70-74	+4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 11	@WICH	L 67-78	+8.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 145
Jan 18	@TULN	W 71-63	+1.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	vsUTSA	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 23	vsECU	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	@TLSA	L 66-82	+8.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 148
Jan 31	vsUAB	L 68-72	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 140
Feb 4	@RICE	L 83-86	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 169
Feb 7	@UTSA	W 81-58	-10.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsMEM	W 76-69	+2.5	W +9.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 15	@TEM	W 65-62	+2.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsTULN	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsFAU	W 73-72	-2.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Feb 25	@CLT	L 79-80	-2.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 159
Mar 1	@UAB	W 62-58	+4.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 120
Mar 4	vsRICE	W 62-58	-6.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 120
Mar 12	vsFAU	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 144
Mar 13	vsTLSA	L 84-90	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

W 72-69

−13.5

HCU

W 77-75

−9.5

TCU

L 55-65

−0.5

USA

W 58-57

+2.5

SCU

L 60-63

+9.5

MEM

L 48-57

+0.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+7.5

USF

L 70-74

+0.5

WICH

L 67-78

−2.5

TULN

W 71-63

+9.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+3.5

ECU

L 59-63

−14.5

TLSA

L 66-82

−7.5

UAB

L 68-72

−5.5

RICE

L 83-86

−4.5

UTSA

W 81-58

+12.5

MEM

W 76-69

+9.5

TEM

W 65-62

+5.5

TULN

L 71-77

−12.5

FAU

W 73-72

−1.5

CLT

L 79-80

−3.5

UAB

W 62-58

+8.5

RICE

W 62-58

−2.5

FAU

W 74-70

+2.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+1.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

W 72-69

−0.5

HCU

W 77-75

+24.5

TCU

L 55-65

−15.5

USA

W 58-57

−20.5

SCU

L 60-63

−16.5

MEM

L 48-57

−32.5

TLSA

W 72-67

+0.5

USF

L 70-74

−3.5

WICH

L 67-78

+9.5

TULN

W 71-63

−3.5

UTSA

W 81-62

+4.5

ECU

L 59-63

−12.5

TLSA

L 66-82

+6.5

UAB

L 68-72

−1.5

RICE

L 83-86

+34.5

UTSA

W 81-58

−2.5

MEM

W 76-69

+6.5

TEM

W 65-62

−8.5

TULN

L 71-77

+10.5

FAU

W 73-72

+4.5

CLT

L 79-80

+25.5

UAB

W 62-58

−22.5

RICE

W 62-58

−17.5

FAU

W 74-70

+7.5

TLSA

L 84-90

+32.5

over 14under 17avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Drake 0, North Texas 2, even 3

DrakeBetterNorth Texas

G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27

UNTBig

G J. Stevenson17.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2 ast Score 94

G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42

Even

G C. Chavis TR10.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.2 ast Score 53

G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

Even

G C. Franklin6.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 47

F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21

UNTBig

G A. Amkou TR5.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 74

F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

Even

F R. Robinson7.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 65

DrakeBetterNorth Texas

DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1

UNTSmall

UNT defense66th of 366 · +1.0

DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5

Even

UNT offense165th of 366 · -5.0

Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players

UNTBig

Backcourt+2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

UNTSmall

Frontcourt+0.5 · 1 player

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestDRKE betterUNT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drake

Guards

A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew

Forwards

G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew

North Texas

Guards

J. Stevenson33 minC. Chavis27 min · TRC. Franklin25 minA. Amkou12 min · TRE. Horton9 minB. BarnesNew

Forwards

R. Robinson23 minM. Holmes6 min · TRO. NdourNewT. CrumbleNewF. KalajzicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DRKE73.9 #200

UNT69.1 #298

Points per possession

DRKE1.08 #182

UNT1.02 #302

Pace (possessions)

DRKE68.4 #209

UNT67.6 #245

Shooting

Effective FG%

DRKE51.4 #179

UNT46.0 #349

3-point %

DRKE34.0 #172

UNT28.7 #358

3-point attempt rate

DRKE45.7 #53

UNT32.4 #325

Free throw rate

DRKE33.5 #223

UNT39.6 #63

Possessions

Turnover rate

DRKE15.0 #64

UNT16.8 #182

Offensive rebound rate

DRKE26.6 #310

UNT33.5 #76

Assists per game

DRKE13.1 #202

UNT12.1 #282

Defense

Points allowed

DRKE76.3 #225

UNT68.2 #35

Points allowed per possession

DRKE1.12 #261

UNT1.01 #33

Opponent effective FG%

DRKE52.6 #246

UNT48.5 #47

Opponent 3-point %

DRKE36.4 #323

UNT30.9 #32

Turnovers forced

DRKE14.6 #315

UNT21.3 #6

Defensive rebound rate

DRKE70.1 #155

UNT67.6 #278

Steals per game

DRKE5.2 #319

UNT8.9 #11

Blocks per game

DRKE2.9 #241

UNT4.3 #51

DRKE		UNT
Scoring
73.9 #200	Points per game	69.1 #298
1.08 #182	Points per possession	1.02 #302
68.4 #209	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #245
Shooting
51.4 #179	Effective FG%	46.0 #349
34.0 #172	3-point %	28.7 #358
45.7 #53	3-point attempt rate	32.4 #325
33.5 #223	Free throw rate	39.6 #63
Possessions
15.0 #64	Turnover rate	16.8 #182
26.6 #310	Offensive rebound rate	33.5 #76
13.1 #202	Assists per game	12.1 #282
Defense
76.3 #225	Points allowed	68.2 #35
1.12 #261	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #33
52.6 #246	Opponent effective FG%	48.5 #47
36.4 #323	Opponent 3-point %	30.9 #32
14.6 #315	Turnovers forced	21.3 #6
70.1 #155	Defensive rebound rate	67.6 #278
5.2 #319	Steals per game	8.9 #11
2.9 #241	Blocks per game	4.3 #51

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UIC51–72
Wvs Belmont100–79
Wvs S Illinois67–63
Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

North Texas

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa84–90
Wvs FAU74–70
Wvs Rice62–58
W@ UAB62–58
L@ Charlotte79–80

A week or more of rest.

Drake Bulldogs vs North Texas Mean Green

What could decide it: UNT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Drake

North Texas

North Texas has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Drake

North Texas