1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. UAPB @ MIZ
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Missouri Tigers

Mizzou Arena · at Missouri
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 93–61 · win probability MIZ 100%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 153.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

UAPB 1, MIZ 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIZBig
MIZ offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
MIZBig
UAPB offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 337th of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIZBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, MIZ 68.3%
MIZBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
MIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, MIZ 35.5
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
UAPBSmall
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 37.1% and 36.4% of their shots
MIZSmall
Home court
MIZ at home. This season: MIZ 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
MIZSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, MIZ 16.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIZ -32.2—
Total—153.3—
Projected score—UAPB 60.5 · MIZ 92.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIZ -19.0—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreUAPB 26.3 · MIZ 45.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Missouri has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, Missouri 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterMissouri
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
MIZSmall
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
AR-Pine BluffBetterMissouri
UAPB offense337th of 366 · -11.1
MIZBig
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
MIZBig
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
MIZBig
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
MIZSmall
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBMIZ
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game79.2 #78
1.04 #277Points per possession1.15 #65
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%55.0 #36
33.6 #1903-point %35.0 #112
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate36.4 #240
38.4 #91Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate17.7 #255
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
14.1 #136Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed75.5 #204
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
16.4 #192Turnovers forced16.6 #182
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
6.8 #142Steals per game6.6 #162
2.9 #244Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.