Colgate Raiders at Hofstra Pride: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 27, 3:30 PM ETDavid S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex · at Hofstra

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Colgate and Hofstra
COLG	This season	HOF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOF 76–69 · win probability HOF 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOF has more of the edges

COLG 2, HOF 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HOFSmall

Three-pointers

COLG hits 35.6% and allows 34.8%; HOF hits 37.1% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 35.0% and 42.9% of their shots

HOFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COLG 26.6%, HOF 34.7%. Defensive: COLG 70.7%, HOF 69.0%

COLGSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COLG 59%, HOF 12%. Transfers in: COLG 0, HOF 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

HOFSmall

COLG offense vs HOF defense

Offense 205th of 366 against a defense 120th, on the model’s ratings

HOFSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: COLG 53.3 and allows 52.2; HOF 51.4 and allows 46.3

COLGSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COLG 14.7%, HOF 16.1%. Forced: COLG 15.2%, HOF 15.0%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: COLG plays 68.6 a game (202nd fastest), HOF 65.9 (319th). Faster games mean more points

HOFSmall

Home court

HOF at home. This season: HOF 0-0 at home, COLG 0-0 away

Even

HOF offense vs COLG defense

Offense 254th of 366 against a defense 214th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

COLG has played the 178th-hardest schedule, HOF the 142nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: COLG 29.7, HOF 31.6. Allowed: COLG 33.8, HOF 35.1

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOF -7.2	—
Total	—	144.2	—
Projected score	—	COLG 68.5 · HOF 75.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOF -4.1	—
1H total	67.5	—
1H projected score	COLG 31.7 · HOF 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLG LLLWL	12-19	39%	7-9	—
HOF WWLWL	21-12	64%	6-4	—

Venue/role: COLG away; HOF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLG OUOOU	17-14	55%	16-15
HOF UOOOO	18-15	55%	22-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLG	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
HOF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Colgate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs UVM	W65–60WU
Nov 29	vs MRMK	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs COR	L94–95WO

Hofstra

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs MRMK	W78–58WO
Nov 29	vs UVM	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ SMC	L48–76LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Colgate

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W L W W W W L W W L L W L L L L W L L L L W W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O O U U O O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MSU	L 69-80	+22.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 7	vsNE	L 65-68	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsDREX	W 90-83	-3.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 14	@ILL	L 65-84	+30.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 17	@SIE	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 20	@COR	L 94-95	+5.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 28	vsUALB	W 69-67	-7.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsFOR	W 72-62	-1.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 10	@SBU	L 77-85	+9.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 21	@FLA	L 60-90	+27.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 28	vsHARV	L 69-78	-3.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 31	@LAF	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@ARMY	W 76-69	-7.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsAMER	W 64-62	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsLEH	L 77-78	-11.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@L-MD	W 86-80	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBUCK	W 95-76	-8.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	@AMER	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsBU	W 80-79	-7.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsHC	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@LEH	L 76-77	-3.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 4	vsARMY	W 69-55	-10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Feb 7	@BUCK	W 78-59	-5.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 11	@HC	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 14	vsNAVY	L 80-84	-1.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 16	@BU	L 58-85	-2.5	L −29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 21	vsL-MD	W 101-98	-8.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsLAF	L 69-70	-8.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	@NAVY	L 69-85	+6.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 154
Mar 5	vsL-MD	W 90-77	-6.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 167
Mar 8	@LEH	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+11.5

L 65-68

−8.5

DREX

W 90-83

+3.5

ILL

L 65-84

+11.5

SIE

W 72-69

+9.5

COR

L 94-95

+4.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

+8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+1.5

FLA

L 60-90

−2.5

HARV

L 69-78

−12.5

LAF

W 85-77

+1.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−0.5

AMER

W 64-62

−3.5

LEH

L 77-78

−12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

−2.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+10.5

AMER

L 66-70

−2.5

W 80-79

−6.5

W 79-74

−5.5

LEH

L 76-77

−4.5

ARMY

W 69-55

+3.5

BUCK

W 78-59

+13.5

W 74-70

−4.5

NAVY

L 80-84

−5.5

L 58-85

−29.5

L-MD

W 101-98

−5.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

−9.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+6.5

LEH

L 69-76

−9.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+4.5

L 65-68

−14.5

DREX

W 90-83

+29.5

ILL

L 65-84

−15.5

SIE

W 72-69

−5.5

COR

L 94-95

+27.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

−8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+19.5

FLA

L 60-90

−6.5

HARV

L 69-78

+5.5

LAF

W 85-77

+15.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−2.5

AMER

W 64-62

−22.5

LEH

L 77-78

+12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

+15.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+31.5

AMER

L 66-70

−10.5

W 80-79

+11.5

W 79-74

+8.5

LEH

L 76-77

+6.5

ARMY

W 69-55

−26.5

BUCK

W 78-59

−4.5

W 74-70

+1.5

NAVY

L 80-84

+24.5

L 58-85

−2.5

L-MD

W 101-98

+48.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

+12.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+11.5

LEH

L 69-76

−1.5

over 17under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hofstra

33 games played

Straight up

22-11

67% wins

Against the spread

21-12

64% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1167%

L L W L W W W L W W W W W W W L L L L L W W W W L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W W W L W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1555%

O O O O U O U U O U U O O O U O O O O U U U U U U U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157
Nov 28	vsLAS	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsMRMK	W 78-58	-5.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	@PENN	W 77-60	-1.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 3	@COLU	L 70-72	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 7	@PITT	W 80-73	+8.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@SYR	W 70-69	+9.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsQUIN	W 74-66	-7.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 29	vsCAM	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 158
Jan 3	@DREX	W 70-67	-4.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	@TOW	W 78-67	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	vsMONM	W 67-64	-7.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 131
Jan 15	@STBK	L 71-76	-6.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 147
Jan 17	vsELON	L 85-89	-5.5	L −9.5	149.5	O 174
Jan 22	@NCAT	L 78-79	-9.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 157
Jan 24	@W&M	L 82-89	+3.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 29	vsCOFC	L 64-66	-2.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 130
Jan 31	@MONM	W 73-57	-1.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 5	vsNE	W 80-63	-8.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 7	vsTOW	W 71-49	-4.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	@COFC	W 66-62	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 14	@UNCW	L 66-70	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 19	vsHAMP	W 79-43	-11.5	W +24.5	133.5	U 122
Feb 21	@NE	W 82-68	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsSTBK	W 67-58	-11.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 3	vsDREX	W 62-51	-8.5	W +2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 8	vsW&M	W 92-61	-2.5	W +28.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 9	vsTOW	W 68-65	-4.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Mar 10	vsMONM	W 75-69	-4.5	W +1.5	133.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsALA	L 70-90	+11.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

LAS

W 63-58

+1.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+14.5

PENN

W 77-60

+15.5

COLU

L 70-72

+1.5

PITT

W 80-73

+15.5

SYR

W 70-69

+10.5

QUIN

W 74-66

+0.5

CAM

W 86-72

+7.5

DREX

W 70-67

−1.5

TOW

W 78-67

+12.5

MONM

W 67-64

−4.5

STBK

L 71-76

−11.5

ELON

L 85-89

−9.5

NCAT

L 78-79

−10.5

W&M

L 82-89

−3.5

COFC

L 64-66

−4.5

MONM

W 73-57

+14.5

W 80-63

+8.5

TOW

W 71-49

+17.5

COFC

W 66-62

+5.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

+24.5

W 82-68

+7.5

STBK

W 67-58

−2.5

DREX

W 62-51

+2.5

W&M

W 92-61

+28.5

TOW

W 68-65

−1.5

MONM

W 75-69

+1.5

ALA

L 70-90

−8.5

covered 21didn’t cover 12avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

LAS

W 63-58

−17.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+0.5

PENN

W 77-60

−12.5

COLU

L 70-72

−2.5

PITT

W 80-73

+18.5

SYR

W 70-69

−0.5

QUIN

W 74-66

−7.5

CAM

W 86-72

+8.5

DREX

W 70-67

+5.5

TOW

W 78-67

+10.5

MONM

W 67-64

−8.5

STBK

L 71-76

+10.5

ELON

L 85-89

+24.5

NCAT

L 78-79

+10.5

W&M

L 82-89

+13.5

COFC

L 64-66

−18.5

MONM

W 73-57

−10.5

W 80-63

−10.5

TOW

W 71-49

−17.5

COFC

W 66-62

−18.5

UNCW

L 66-70

−1.5

HAMP

W 79-43

−11.5

W 82-68

+5.5

STBK

W 67-58

−15.5

DREX

W 62-51

−20.5

W&M

W 92-61

+0.5

TOW

W 68-65

+0.5

MONM

W 75-69

+10.5

ALA

L 70-90

+1.5

over 18under 15avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Colgate has the better starters

Position by position: Colgate 2, Hofstra 1, even 2

ColgateBetterHofstra

G J. Ahayere7.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 32

Even

G J. Moore TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 46

F A. Alekseyenko14.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 75

COLGSmall

G D. Tavarez TR8.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 47

F S. Wright12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 60

COLGBig

F J. DeCady6.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 17

F C. Wright1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

Even

F S. Wewe TR2.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 17

F A. Odetoyinbo1.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 20

HOFBig

F I. Zorgvol TR5.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 62

ColgateBetterHofstra

COLG offense205th of 366 · -6.3

HOFSmall

HOF defense120th of 366 · -1.9

COLG defense214th of 366 · -5.5

Even

HOF offense254th of 366 · -7.7

Backcourt-1.6 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 4 players

COLGSmall

Frontcourt-3.3 · 3 players

Bench-1.1 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestCOLG betterHOF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Colgate

Guards

J. Ahayere25 minC. Pugh1 minJ. Niv1 minP. JonesNewB. ForrestNewI. SkinnNew

Forwards

A. Alekseyenko30 minS. Wright26 minC. Wright12 minA. Odetoyinbo11 minE. Brown7 minC. Brennan4 min

Hofstra

Guards

J. Moore30 min · TRD. Tavarez23 min · TRT. ThomasNewC. LopezNewT. BoydNewN. JeffersonNew

Forwards

J. DeCady25 minS. Wewe16 min · TRI. Zorgvol15 min · TRR. DunnNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COLG75.6 #154

HOF74.4 #184

Points per possession

COLG1.11 #121

HOF1.13 #86

Pace (possessions)

COLG68.6 #202

HOF65.9 #319

Shooting

Effective FG%

COLG53.3 #91

HOF51.4 #178

3-point %

COLG35.6 #81

HOF37.1 #26

3-point attempt rate

COLG35.0 #275

HOF42.9 #119

Free throw rate

COLG29.7 #316

HOF31.6 #264

Possessions

Turnover rate

COLG14.7 #50

HOF16.1 #148

Offensive rebound rate

COLG26.6 #309

HOF34.7 #54

Assists per game

COLG14.2 #130

HOF12.3 #263

Defense

Points allowed

COLG76.2 #222

HOF68.2 #36

Points allowed per possession

COLG1.11 #230

HOF1.04 #69

Opponent effective FG%

COLG52.2 #224

HOF46.3 #14

Opponent 3-point %

COLG34.8 #238

HOF32.3 #78

Turnovers forced

COLG15.2 #268

HOF15.0 #292

Defensive rebound rate

COLG70.7 #125

HOF69.0 #201

Steals per game

COLG6.1 #230

HOF4.8 #343

Blocks per game

COLG2.9 #249

HOF3.5 #135

COLG		HOF
Scoring
75.6 #154	Points per game	74.4 #184
1.11 #121	Points per possession	1.13 #86
68.6 #202	Pace (possessions)	65.9 #319
Shooting
53.3 #91	Effective FG%	51.4 #178
35.6 #81	3-point %	37.1 #26
35.0 #275	3-point attempt rate	42.9 #119
29.7 #316	Free throw rate	31.6 #264
Possessions
14.7 #50	Turnover rate	16.1 #148
26.6 #309	Offensive rebound rate	34.7 #54
14.2 #130	Assists per game	12.3 #263
Defense
76.2 #222	Points allowed	68.2 #36
1.11 #230	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #69
52.2 #224	Opponent effective FG%	46.3 #14
34.8 #238	Opponent 3-point %	32.3 #78
15.2 #268	Turnovers forced	15.0 #292
70.7 #125	Defensive rebound rate	69.0 #201
6.1 #230	Steals per game	4.8 #343
2.9 #249	Blocks per game	3.5 #135

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colgate

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh69–76
Wvs Loyola MD90–77
L@ Navy69–85
Lvs Lafayette69–70
Wvs Loyola MD101–98

A week or more of rest.

Hofstra

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Alabama70–90
Wvs Monmouth75–69
Wvs Towson68–65
Wvs William & Mary92–61
Wvs Drexel62–51

A week or more of rest.

Colgate Raiders at Hofstra Pride

What could decide it: HOF has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Colgate

Hofstra

Colgate has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Colgate

Hofstra