1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. MRMK @ HOF
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Merrimack Warriors at Hofstra Pride

David S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex · at Hofstra
#236MRMKMerrimack
@
#166HOFHofstra
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MRMKThis seasonHOF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOF 71–65 · win probability HOF 73%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 136.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOF has more of the edges

MRMK 4, HOF 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HOFBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MRMK 24.8%, HOF 34.7%. Defensive: MRMK 60.1%, HOF 69.0%
HOFBig
MRMK offense vs HOF defense
Offense 316th of 366 against a defense 120th, on the model’s ratings
MRMKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MRMK 14.8%, HOF 16.1%. Forced: MRMK 20.4%, HOF 15.0%
Context
Schedule so far
MRMK has played the 286th-hardest schedule, HOF the 142nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
MRMKBig
HOF offense vs MRMK defense
Offense 254th of 366 against a defense 139th, on the model’s ratings
HOFSmall
Three-pointers
MRMK hits 32.7% and allows 30.3%; HOF hits 37.1% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 46.1% and 42.9% of their shots
HOFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MRMK 49.1 and allows 46.7; HOF 51.4 and allows 46.3
MRMKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MRMK 38.2, HOF 31.6. Allowed: MRMK 37.1, HOF 35.1
HOFSmall
Home court
HOF at home. This season: HOF 0-0 at home, MRMK 0-0 away
MRMKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MRMK 37%, HOF 12%. Transfers in: MRMK 3, HOF 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: MRMK plays 64.4 a game (357th fastest), HOF 65.9 (319th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HOF -6.9—
Total—136.0—
Projected score—MRMK 64.6 · HOF 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHOF -4.0—
1H total63.7—
1H projected scoreMRMK 29.9 · HOF 33.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Hofstra has the better starters

Position by position: Merrimack 0, Hofstra 2, even 3
MerrimackBetterHofstra
G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45
Even
G J. Moore TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 46
G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19
HOFSmall
G D. Tavarez TR8.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 47
G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. DeCady6.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 17
F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16
Even
F S. Wewe TR2.4 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 17
F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30
HOFSmall
F I. Zorgvol TR5.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 62
MerrimackBetterHofstra
MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3
HOFBig
HOF defense120th of 366 · -1.9
MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9
MRMKSmall
HOF offense254th of 366 · -7.7
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
HOFBig
Backcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-3.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestMRMK betterHOF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Merrimack
Guards
T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew
Forwards
T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew
Hofstra
Guards
J. Moore30 min · TRD. Tavarez23 min · TRT. ThomasNewC. LopezNewT. BoydNewN. JeffersonNew
Forwards
J. DeCady25 minS. Wewe16 min · TRI. Zorgvol15 min · TRR. DunnNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MRMKHOF
Scoring
68.5 #304Points per game74.4 #184
1.06 #221Points per possession1.13 #86
64.4 #357Pace (possessions)65.9 #319
Shooting
49.1 #288Effective FG%51.4 #178
32.7 #2433-point %37.1 #26
46.1 #463-point attempt rate42.9 #119
38.2 #99Free throw rate31.6 #264
Possessions
14.8 #55Turnover rate16.1 #148
24.8 #343Offensive rebound rate34.7 #54
12.4 #257Assists per game12.3 #263
Defense
66.5 #19Points allowed68.2 #36
1.03 #62Points allowed per possession1.04 #69
46.7 #17Opponent effective FG%46.3 #14
30.3 #12Opponent 3-point %32.3 #78
20.4 #16Turnovers forced15.0 #292
60.1 #365Defensive rebound rate69.0 #201
8.2 #32Steals per game4.8 #343
5.2 #13Blocks per game3.5 #135
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena54–64
  • Wvs Marist58–57
  • Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
  • W@ Niagara73–66
  • L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.

Hofstra

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alabama70–90
  • Wvs Monmouth75–69
  • Wvs Towson68–65
  • Wvs William & Mary92–61
  • Wvs Drexel62–51

A week or more of rest.