Fairfield Stags at Merrimack Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ETLawler Arena · at Merrimack · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Fairfield and Merrimack
FAIR	This season	MRMK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRMK 71–67 · win probability MRMK 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

FAIR 2, MRMK 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FAIRBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FAIR 35.8%, MRMK 24.8%. Defensive: FAIR 70.9%, MRMK 60.1%

MRMKBig

FAIR offense vs MRMK defense

Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 139th, on the model’s ratings

FAIRBig

MRMK offense vs FAIR defense

Offense 316th of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings

MRMKSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FAIR 15.4%, MRMK 14.8%. Forced: FAIR 16.8%, MRMK 20.4%

MRMKSmall

Three-pointers

FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%; MRMK hits 32.7% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 35.4% and 46.1% of their shots

MRMKSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0; MRMK 49.1 and allows 46.7

Context

Schedule so far

FAIR has played the 359th-hardest schedule, MRMK the 286th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MRMKSmall

Home court

MRMK at home. This season: MRMK 0-0 at home, FAIR 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: FAIR plays 67.3 a game (263rd fastest), MRMK 64.4 (357th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: FAIR 27.7, MRMK 38.2. Allowed: FAIR 30.4, MRMK 37.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FAIR 53%, MRMK 37%. Transfers in: FAIR 2, MRMK 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MRMK -3.7	—
Total	—	138.4	—
Projected score	—	FAIR 67.4 · MRMK 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -2.1	—
1H total	64.8	—
1H projected score	FAIR 31.4 · MRMK 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAIR WLWWL	15-18	45%	8-7	—
MRMK LLWLL	20-14	59%	9-2	—

Venue/role: FAIR away; MRMK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAIR UUUUU	14-19	42%	20-13
MRMK UOUUU	12-22	35%	23-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAIR	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
MRMK	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fairfield

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ PROV	L73–80WO
Dec 13	vs LEM	W97–83WO

Merrimack

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	vs UVM	L59–66LU
Dec 12	@ MSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FAIR 0–3 MRMKMRMK leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MRMK has won the last 3 meetings · FAIR 0-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2025-26	FAIR 63 @ MRMK 74	MRMK -3.5	MRMK W
Jan 25, 2024-25	MRMK 75 @ FAIR 54	FAIR +4.5	MRMK W
Jan 3, 2024-25	FAIR 54 @ MRMK 67	MRMK -7.5	MRMK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fairfield

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-19

42% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

L W L W W W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W W L W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

W W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L W L L L L W L W W L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1942%

U U O O O O O U U U U O U O O U O O O U U U U O U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 14	vsSTO	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 16	vsL-MD	W 85-82	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 22	@LEM	W 97-83	-1.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsCOLU	L 77-106	+3.5	L −25.5	150.5	O 183
Nov 30	vsUNH	W 72-68	-9.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 5	@MAN	L 66-70	-1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRMK	L 63-74	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 14	vsMONM	W 73-65	+2.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 18	@CCSU	W 84-70	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 154
Dec 29	vsSPU	L 66-70	-2.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 136
Jan 2	@CAN	L 81-85	-6.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	@NIA	W 83-75	-3.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 158
Jan 9	vsRID	W 68-62	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 14	vsMAN	W 98-62	-6.5	W +29.5	158.5	O 160
Jan 17	@MRST	L 67-82	+8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 19	@SIE	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsNIA	W 62-61	-10.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 24	vsCAN	W 61-55	-10.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 116
Jan 30	@IONA	W 71-70	+1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 1	vsQUIN	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 137
Feb 5	@SHU	W 92-87	+1.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 179
Feb 7	vsMRST	W 63-60	+1.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 123
Feb 15	@SPU	L 74-83	+3.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 157
Feb 20	vsSHU	W 78-68	-4.5	W +5.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 22	@QUIN	W 85-79	+6.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 27	vsSIE	W 72-58	+1.5	W +15.5	142.5	U 130
Mar 1	vsMSM	L 47-69	-4.5	L −26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 5	vsMAN	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 131
Mar 6	vsSPU	W 74-55	+1.5	W +20.5	137.5	U 129
Mar 8	vsSIE	L 61-76	+1.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

STO

W 73-71

−4.5

L-MD

W 85-82

−2.5

LEM

W 97-83

+12.5

COLU

L 77-106

−25.5

UNH

W 72-68

−5.5

MAN

L 66-70

−5.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

+10.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+20.5

SPU

L 66-70

−6.5

CAN

L 81-85

−10.5

NIA

W 83-75

+4.5

RID

W 68-62

−2.5

MAN

W 98-62

+29.5

MRST

L 67-82

−6.5

SIE

L 77-85

−1.5

NIA

W 62-61

−9.5

CAN

W 61-55

−4.5

IONA

W 71-70

+2.5

QUIN

L 65-72

−4.5

SHU

W 92-87

+6.5

MRST

W 63-60

+4.5

SPU

L 74-83

−5.5

SHU

W 78-68

+5.5

QUIN

W 85-79

+12.5

SIE

W 72-58

+15.5

MSM

L 47-69

−26.5

MAN

W 71-60

+7.5

SPU

W 74-55

+20.5

SIE

L 61-76

−13.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

STO

W 73-71

+0.5

L-MD

W 85-82

+31.5

LEM

W 97-83

+34.5

COLU

L 77-106

+32.5

UNH

W 72-68

−7.5

MAN

L 66-70

−19.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

−5.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+10.5

SPU

L 66-70

−4.5

CAN

L 81-85

+25.5

NIA

W 83-75

+19.5

RID

W 68-62

−15.5

MAN

W 98-62

+1.5

MRST

L 67-82

+7.5

SIE

L 77-85

+19.5

NIA

W 62-61

−16.5

CAN

W 61-55

−25.5

IONA

W 71-70

−5.5

QUIN

L 65-72

−17.5

SHU

W 92-87

+23.5

MRST

W 63-60

−15.5

SPU

L 74-83

+15.5

SHU

W 78-68

−12.5

QUIN

W 85-79

+13.5

SIE

W 72-58

−12.5

MSM

L 47-69

−29.5

MAN

W 71-60

−17.5

SPU

W 74-55

−8.5

SIE

L 61-76

−1.5

over 14under 19avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Merrimack

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

L L L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L L L W W W L L W L W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

U O U O O U U O U U U U U O U U U O O U U U U O U O U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126
Dec 4	vsRID	W 68-66	-9.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsFAIR	W 74-63	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PRIN	W 59-56	+2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 14	@UVM	L 59-66	+6.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 29	@SHU	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	vsMSM	W 75-65	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	vsMAN	W 73-66	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	@SIE	W 63-59	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@SPU	L 63-76	+1.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsQUIN	W 83-71	+1.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 19	@MRST	W 68-55	+6.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 22	@IONA	L 60-61	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 121
Jan 24	vsSPU	W 67-59	-2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 126
Feb 1	vsSHU	W 75-58	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	@MSM	W 87-70	-2.5	W +14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@RID	W 73-47	-8.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsMRST	W 81-56	-2.5	W +22.5	128.5	O 137
Feb 15	@QUIN	W 56-49	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 105
Feb 20	vsSIE	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsIONA	W 88-86	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 174
Feb 27	@CAN	L 62-67	-8.5	L −13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	@NIA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	126.5	O 139
Mar 6	vsSHU	W 70-48	-6.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 118
Mar 8	vsMRST	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	128.5	U 115
Mar 10	vsSIE	L 54-64	-2.5	L −12.5	128.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

RID

W 68-66

−7.5

FAIR

W 74-63

+7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

+5.5

UVM

L 59-66

−0.5

SHU

W 80-72

+9.5

MSM

W 75-65

+6.5

MAN

W 73-66

+0.5

SIE

W 63-59

+9.5

SPU

L 63-76

−11.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+13.5

MRST

W 68-55

+19.5

IONA

L 60-61

−2.5

SPU

W 67-59

+5.5

SHU

W 75-58

+11.5

MSM

W 87-70

+14.5

RID

W 73-47

+17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+22.5

QUIN

W 56-49

+10.5

SIE

W 79-72

+4.5

IONA

W 88-86

−4.5

CAN

L 62-67

−13.5

NIA

W 73-66

−0.5

SHU

W 70-48

+15.5

MRST

W 58-57

−1.5

SIE

L 54-64

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

RID

W 68-66

−4.5

FAIR

W 74-63

−7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

−19.5

UVM

L 59-66

−11.5

SHU

W 80-72

+7.5

MSM

W 75-65

−1.5

MAN

W 73-66

−9.5

SIE

W 63-59

−10.5

SPU

L 63-76

+5.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+12.5

MRST

W 68-55

−10.5

IONA

L 60-61

−22.5

SPU

W 67-59

−8.5

SHU

W 75-58

−14.5

MSM

W 87-70

+22.5

RID

W 73-47

−17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+8.5

QUIN

W 56-49

−36.5

SIE

W 79-72

+17.5

IONA

W 88-86

+37.5

CAN

L 62-67

−0.5

NIA

W 73-66

+12.5

SHU

W 70-48

−25.5

MRST

W 58-57

−13.5

SIE

L 54-64

−10.5

over 12under 22avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Fairfield has the better starters

Position by position: Fairfield 2, Merrimack 0, even 3

FairfieldBetterMerrimack

G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71

FAIRSmall

G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

Even

G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19

G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11

No call

G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4

Even

F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16

F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

FAIRBig

F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30

FairfieldBetterMerrimack

FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7

MRMKBig

MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9

FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8

FAIRSmall

MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player

FAIRBig

Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players

Bench-2.2 · 5 players

MRMKSmall

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestFAIR betterMRMK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Fairfield

Guards

D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min

Forwards

Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew

Merrimack

Guards

T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew

Forwards

T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FAIR72.9 #226

MRMK68.5 #304

Points per possession

FAIR1.09 #166

MRMK1.06 #221

Pace (possessions)

FAIR67.3 #263

MRMK64.4 #357

Shooting

Effective FG%

FAIR48.8 #294

MRMK49.1 #288

3-point %

FAIR33.2 #216

MRMK32.7 #243

3-point attempt rate

FAIR35.4 #262

MRMK46.1 #46

Free throw rate

FAIR27.7 #346

MRMK38.2 #99

Possessions

Turnover rate

FAIR15.4 #96

MRMK14.8 #55

Offensive rebound rate

FAIR35.8 #29

MRMK24.8 #343

Assists per game

FAIR12.1 #277

MRMK12.4 #257

Defense

Points allowed

FAIR71.9 #104

MRMK66.5 #19

Points allowed per possession

FAIR1.06 #118

MRMK1.03 #62

Opponent effective FG%

FAIR51.0 #159

MRMK46.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

FAIR34.3 #200

MRMK30.3 #12

Turnovers forced

FAIR16.8 #169

MRMK20.4 #16

Defensive rebound rate

FAIR70.9 #116

MRMK60.1 #365

Steals per game

FAIR6.5 #183

MRMK8.2 #32

Blocks per game

FAIR3.5 #145

MRMK5.2 #13

FAIR		MRMK
Scoring
72.9 #226	Points per game	68.5 #304
1.09 #166	Points per possession	1.06 #221
67.3 #263	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #357
Shooting
48.8 #294	Effective FG%	49.1 #288
33.2 #216	3-point %	32.7 #243
35.4 #262	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #46
27.7 #346	Free throw rate	38.2 #99
Possessions
15.4 #96	Turnover rate	14.8 #55
35.8 #29	Offensive rebound rate	24.8 #343
12.1 #277	Assists per game	12.4 #257
Defense
71.9 #104	Points allowed	66.5 #19
1.06 #118	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #62
51.0 #159	Opponent effective FG%	46.7 #17
34.3 #200	Opponent 3-point %	30.3 #12
16.8 #169	Turnovers forced	20.4 #16
70.9 #116	Defensive rebound rate	60.1 #365
6.5 #183	Steals per game	8.2 #32
3.5 #145	Blocks per game	5.2 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena61–76
Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
Wvs Manhattan71–60
Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena54–64
Wvs Marist58–57
Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
W@ Niagara73–66
L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.

Fairfield Stags at Merrimack Warriors

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Fairfield

Merrimack

Fairfield has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Fairfield

Merrimack