Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and Indiana St
USI	This season	INST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects INST 78–69 · win probability INST 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: INST has more of the edges

USI 2, INST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

USI has played the 362nd-hardest schedule, INST the 149th. A record against a soft schedule means less

USIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USI 17.1%, INST 19.5%. Forced: USI 16.5%, INST 14.9%

INSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: USI 43.7 and allows 49.4; INST 52.8 and allows 50.2

INSTSmall

Three-pointers

USI hits 29.9% and allows 34.1%; INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 39.8% and 45.2% of their shots

INSTSmall

INST offense vs USI defense

Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 243rd, on the model’s ratings

INSTSmall

USI offense vs INST defense

Offense 320th of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings

INSTSmall

Home court

INST at home. This season: INST 0-0 at home, USI 0-0 away

USISmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USI 31.4%, INST 26.2%. Defensive: USI 66.2%, INST 68.2%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: USI 37.2, INST 27.4. Allowed: USI 36.2, INST 28.7

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: USI plays 69.0 a game (177th fastest), INST 69.7 (131st). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	INST -8.7	—
Total	—	147.4	—
Projected score	—	USI 69.3 · INST 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -5.1	—
1H total	68.9	—
1H projected score	USI 31.9 · INST 37	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USI LWWWL	12-16	43%	8-7	—
INST LLLWW	18-12	60%	7-6	—

Venue/role: USI away; INST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI OOOUO	11-17	39%	5-23
INST OOUUU	13-17	43%	9-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
INST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

No more games listed yet.

Indiana St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ ORE	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ UIC	W79–63WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USI 2–2 INSTSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · USI 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2025-26	USI 55 @ INST 77	INST -11.5	INST W
Nov 25, 2024-25	INST 77 @ USI 87	USI +2.5	USI W
Dec 9, 2023-24	USI 54 @ INST 98	INST -21.5	INST W
Dec 11, 2022-23	INST 85 @ USI 88	USI +6.5	USI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-17

39% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1643%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1739%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	@TNST	L 67-73	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsEIU	L 51-59	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 23	vsWIU	W 96-64	-6.5	W +25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsLIN	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsSIUE	L 46-58	+1.5	L −10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 5	@UTM	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	@SEMO	L 65-90	+11.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsTNST	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	vsTNTC	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	@WIU	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@EIU	W 70-68	+4.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 24	@MORE	L 63-64	+7.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 127
Feb 28	@LR	L 70-89	+5.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

TNST

L 67-73

+2.5

EIU

L 51-59

−10.5

WIU

W 96-64

+25.5

LIN

L 60-73

−8.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−10.5

UTM

L 54-76

−11.5

SEMO

L 65-90

−13.5

TNST

L 71-73

+4.5

TNTC

L 74-82

−6.5

WIU

W 77-70

+3.5

EIU

W 70-68

+6.5

L 63-64

+6.5

L 70-89

−13.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

TNST

L 67-73

−10.5

EIU

L 51-59

−25.5

WIU

W 96-64

+23.5

LIN

L 60-73

−17.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−26.5

UTM

L 54-76

−2.5

SEMO

L 65-90

+13.5

TNST

L 71-73

−3.5

TNTC

L 74-82

+15.5

WIU

W 77-70

+6.5

EIU

W 70-68

+2.5

L 63-64

−15.5

L 70-89

+19.5

over 11under 17avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L W L W W W L W W L L W W W L W W W L W L W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O O U U O U O O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsBEL	W 81-80	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNI	L 66-75	+10.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@DRKE	L 72-74	+6.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsEVAN	L 69-72	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 14	vsILST	W 94-89	+6.5	W +11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	@MUR	L 81-85	+11.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 166
Jan 21	@BRAD	L 68-75	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	vsDRKE	L 62-76	-3.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 27	@UIC	L 74-76	+5.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 31	vsVAL	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 3	@EVAN	W 84-63	-1.5	W +19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 9	vsSIU	L 65-80	+1.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145
Feb 12	vsMUR	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 146
Feb 15	@VAL	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsUNI	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	136.5	O 141
Feb 21	@BEL	L 70-87	+12.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 157
Feb 25	@SIU	L 55-66	+8.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 121
Mar 1	vsUIC	W 79-63	+3.5	W +19.5	144.5	U 142
Mar 5	vsVAL	L 62-63	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

BEL

W 81-80

+8.5

UNI

L 66-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 72-74

+4.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−10.5

ILST

W 94-89

+11.5

MUR

L 81-85

+7.5

BRAD

L 68-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−17.5

UIC

L 74-76

+3.5

VAL

L 72-76

−6.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+19.5

SIU

L 65-80

−13.5

MUR

L 72-74

+1.5

VAL

L 75-76

+3.5

UNI

L 60-81

−15.5

BEL

L 70-87

−4.5

SIU

L 55-66

−2.5

UIC

W 79-63

+19.5

VAL

L 62-63

+1.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

BEL

W 81-80

+1.5

UNI

L 66-75

+5.5

DRKE

L 72-74

−3.5

EVAN

L 69-72

−4.5

ILST

W 94-89

+34.5

MUR

L 81-85

−1.5

BRAD

L 68-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 62-76

−13.5

UIC

L 74-76

+2.5

VAL

L 72-76

+2.5

EVAN

W 84-63

+1.5

SIU

L 65-80

−1.5

MUR

L 72-74

−17.5

VAL

L 75-76

+5.5

UNI

L 60-81

+4.5

BEL

L 70-87

+0.5

SIU

L 55-66

−26.5

UIC

W 79-63

−2.5

VAL

L 62-63

−15.5

over 13under 17avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USI67.0 #333

INST71.7 #254

Points per possession

USI0.97 #346

INST1.03 #295

Pace (possessions)

USI69.0 #177

INST69.7 #131

Shooting

Effective FG%

USI43.7 #363

INST52.8 #110

3-point %

USI29.9 #345

INST31.6 #305

3-point attempt rate

USI39.8 #178

INST45.2 #62

Free throw rate

USI37.2 #123

INST27.4 #349

Possessions

Turnover rate

USI17.1 #212

INST19.5 #338

Offensive rebound rate

USI31.4 #145

INST26.2 #317

Assists per game

USI9.7 #360

INST17.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

USI74.3 #165

INST75.1 #193

Points allowed per possession

USI1.08 #165

INST1.08 #161

Opponent effective FG%

USI49.4 #80

INST50.2 #110

Opponent 3-point %

USI34.1 #193

INST31.2 #37

Turnovers forced

USI16.5 #183

INST14.9 #299

Defensive rebound rate

USI66.2 #315

INST68.2 #245

Steals per game

USI6.2 #210

INST6.0 #242

Blocks per game

USI4.2 #56

INST3.3 #176

USI		INST
Scoring
67.0 #333	Points per game	71.7 #254
0.97 #346	Points per possession	1.03 #295
69.0 #177	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #131
Shooting
43.7 #363	Effective FG%	52.8 #110
29.9 #345	3-point %	31.6 #305
39.8 #178	3-point attempt rate	45.2 #62
37.2 #123	Free throw rate	27.4 #349
Possessions
17.1 #212	Turnover rate	19.5 #338
31.4 #145	Offensive rebound rate	26.2 #317
9.7 #360	Assists per game	17.1 #22
Defense
74.3 #165	Points allowed	75.1 #193
1.08 #165	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #161
49.4 #80	Opponent effective FG%	50.2 #110
34.1 #193	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #37
16.5 #183	Turnovers forced	14.9 #299
66.2 #315	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #245
6.2 #210	Steals per game	6.0 #242
4.2 #56	Blocks per game	3.3 #176

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-16 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Little Rock70–89
L@ Morehead St63–64
W@ E Illinois70–68
W@ W Illinois77–70
Lvs Tennessee Tech74–82

A week or more of rest.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Valparaiso62–63
Wvs UIC79–63
L@ S Illinois55–66
L@ Belmont70–87
Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Indiana State Sycamores

What could decide it: INST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Indiana St

Matchup stats

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Indiana St