North Florida Ospreys at Columbia Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ETLevien Gymnasium · at Columbia

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: North Florida and Columbia
UNF	This season	COLU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLU 85–72 · win probability COLU 86%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLU has more of the edges

UNF 0, COLU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

COLUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UNF 25.2%, COLU 36.0%. Defensive: UNF 62.4%, COLU 72.8%

COLUBig

COLU offense vs UNF defense

Offense 163rd of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UNF plays 72.3 a game (31st fastest), COLU 67.8 (237th). Faster games mean more points

COLUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3; COLU 53.5 and allows 51.2

COLUSmall

Home court

COLU at home. This season: COLU 0-0 at home, UNF 0-0 away

Even

UNF offense vs COLU defense

Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 198th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UNF 45%, COLU 61%. Transfers in: UNF 3, COLU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UNF 28.8, COLU 28.6. Allowed: UNF 31.4, COLU 33.5

Even

Three-pointers

UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%; COLU hits 35.9% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 51.7% and 37.5% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UNF 17.8%, COLU 19.3%. Forced: UNF 12.8%, COLU 15.1%

Context

Schedule so far

UNF has played the 168th-hardest schedule, COLU the 169th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	COLU -12.3	—
Total	—	156.8	—
Projected score	—	UNF 72.3 · COLU 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -7.2	—
1H total	73.3	—
1H projected score	UNF 33 · COLU 40.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNF WLWLL	18-12	60%	9-7	—
COLU WLWWL	14-12	54%	7-5	—

Venue/role: UNF away; COLU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNF UUUUO	16-14	53%	5-25
COLU OUOUO	14-12	54%	14-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNF	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
COLU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs SDAK	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ SDAK	No recent meeting

Columbia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ SJU	No recent meeting
Dec 4	@ NHVN	W71–53WU
Dec 8	vs HOF	W72–70LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNF 0–1 COLUCOLU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNF 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 28, 2025-26	COLU 90 @ UNF 82	UNF +11.5	UNF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Florida

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L L W L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1260%

W W W W W L L W L L W L W L W W L W W L W W L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U O O O O U O U O O O O U U U O O O O U O U U O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@FLA	L 64-104	+43.5	W +3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	@TENN	L 66-99	+41.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 19	@WOF	L 78-86	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsUSM	L 83-92	+9.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 175
Nov 23	vsPV	L 82-85	+3.5	W +0.5	160.5	O 167
Dec 2	vsSIUE	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 135
Dec 7	@GONZ	L 58-109	+42.5	L −8.5	166.5	O 167
Dec 13	@DAY	L 61-84	+30.5	W +7.5	159.5	U 145
Dec 18	@CHSO	L 90-113	+10.5	L −12.5	163.5	O 203
Dec 21	@MIA	L 67-105	+37.5	L −0.5	171.5	O 172
Dec 28	vsCOLU	L 82-90	+11.5	W +3.5	162.5	O 172
Jan 1	@APSU	L 83-102	+15.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 3	@LIP	L 74-82	+18.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 156
Jan 8	vsWGA	L 73-85	+2.5	L −9.5	164.5	U 158
Jan 10	vsQUC	L 82-89	+11.5	W +4.5	173.5	U 171
Jan 15	@UNA	W 105-91	+9.5	W +23.5	157.5	O 196
Jan 17	@CARK	L 69-98	+12.5	L −16.5	164.5	O 167
Jan 22	vsEKU	W 87-85	+8.5	W +10.5	166.5	O 172
Jan 24	vsBELL	W 117-114	+3.5	W +6.5	164.5	O 231
Jan 29	vsSTET	L 77-84	+1.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 161
Jan 31	vsLIP	L 94-100	+10.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 194
Feb 5	@WGA	W 81-73	+5.5	W +13.5	166.5	U 154
Feb 7	@QUC	L 72-91	+15.5	L −3.5	178.5	U 163
Feb 11	@FGCU	L 81-90	+13.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 171
Feb 14	@JAX	L 56-63	+7.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 119
Feb 19	vsAPSU	L 76-77	+11.5	W +10.5	166.5	U 153
Feb 21	@STET	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 26	vsFGCU	W 76-70	+6.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsJAX	L 61-85	+1.5	L −22.5	151.5	U 146
Mar 4	vsWGA	L 85-93	+3.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

+3.5

TENN

L 66-99

+8.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

USM

L 83-92

+0.5

L 82-85

+0.5

SIUE

L 63-72

−1.5

GONZ

L 58-109

−8.5

DAY

L 61-84

+7.5

CHSO

L 90-113

−12.5

MIA

L 67-105

−0.5

COLU

L 82-90

+3.5

APSU

L 83-102

−3.5

LIP

L 74-82

+10.5

WGA

L 73-85

−9.5

QUC

L 82-89

+4.5

UNA

W 105-91

+23.5

CARK

L 69-98

−16.5

EKU

W 87-85

+10.5

BELL

W 117-114

+6.5

STET

L 77-84

−5.5

LIP

L 94-100

+4.5

WGA

W 81-73

+13.5

QUC

L 72-91

−3.5

FGCU

L 81-90

+4.5

JAX

L 56-63

+0.5

APSU

L 76-77

+10.5

STET

L 71-76

−3.5

FGCU

W 76-70

+12.5

JAX

L 61-85

−22.5

WGA

L 85-93

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

−1.5

TENN

L 66-99

+9.5

WOF

L 78-86

+2.5

USM

L 83-92

+20.5

L 82-85

+6.5

SIUE

L 63-72

−18.5

GONZ

L 58-109

+0.5

DAY

L 61-84

−14.5

CHSO

L 90-113

+39.5

MIA

L 67-105

+0.5

COLU

L 82-90

+9.5

APSU

L 83-102

+22.5

LIP

L 74-82

−16.5

WGA

L 73-85

−6.5

QUC

L 82-89

−2.5

UNA

W 105-91

+38.5

CARK

L 69-98

+2.5

EKU

W 87-85

+5.5

BELL

W 117-114

+66.5

STET

L 77-84

−4.5

LIP

L 94-100

+28.5

WGA

W 81-73

−12.5

QUC

L 72-91

−15.5

FGCU

L 81-90

+7.5

JAX

L 56-63

−34.5

APSU

L 76-77

−13.5

STET

L 71-76

−14.5

FGCU

W 76-70

−14.5

JAX

L 61-85

−5.5

WGA

L 85-93

+17.5

over 16under 14avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Columbia

26 games played

Straight up

14-12

54% wins

Against the spread

14-12

54% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-12

54% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1254%

W L W W W W W W W L L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1254%

W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W W L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1254%

U U O U O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsBU	W 54-49	-4.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 21	@LEH	W 82-67	-2.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 23	vsLONG	W 95-70	-3.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FAIR	W 106-77	-3.5	W +25.5	150.5	O 183
Dec 3	vsHOF	W 72-70	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 6	vsUALB	W 93-65	-13.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 9	@STBK	L 73-77	-4.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 21	@CAL	L 56-74	+8.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 130
Dec 28	@UNF	W 90-82	-11.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 172
Jan 5	@COR	W 104-99	+3.5	W +8.5	170.5	O 203
Jan 10	vsHARV	L 54-79	-5.5	L −30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	@BRWN	L 80-86	-2.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	@YALE	L 74-91	+9.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 165
Jan 24	@DART	W 79-69	-2.5	W +7.5	156.5	U 148
Jan 30	vsPENN	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	vsPRIN	L 68-80	-5.5	L −17.5	139.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsCOR	L 67-88	+1.5	L −19.5	171.5	U 155
Feb 13	@PENN	L 67-76	+1.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	@PRIN	W 75-65	-1.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 140
Feb 21	vsDART	L 63-64	-6.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Feb 27	vsBRWN	W 80-62	-5.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsYALE	L 54-60	+6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 114
Mar 6	@HARV	L 71-81	+4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

W 54-49

+0.5

LEH

W 82-67

+12.5

LONG

W 95-70

+21.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+25.5

HOF

W 72-70

−1.5

UALB

W 93-65

+14.5

STBK

L 73-77

−8.5

CAL

L 56-74

−9.5

UNF

W 90-82

−3.5

COR

W 104-99

+8.5

HARV

L 54-79

−30.5

BRWN

L 80-86

−8.5

YALE

L 74-91

−7.5

DART

W 79-69

+7.5

PENN

W 72-67

+0.5

PRIN

L 68-80

−17.5

COR

L 67-88

−19.5

PENN

L 67-76

−7.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+8.5

DART

L 63-64

−7.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+12.5

YALE

L 54-60

+0.5

HARV

L 71-81

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

W 54-49

−41.5

LEH

W 82-67

+5.5

LONG

W 95-70

+11.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+32.5

HOF

W 72-70

−2.5

UALB

W 93-65

+13.5

STBK

L 73-77

+3.5

CAL

L 56-74

−23.5

UNF

W 90-82

+9.5

COR

W 104-99

+32.5

HARV

L 54-79

−12.5

BRWN

L 80-86

+22.5

YALE

L 74-91

+14.5

DART

W 79-69

−8.5

PENN

W 72-67

−14.5

PRIN

L 68-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-88

−16.5

PENN

L 67-76

−5.5

PRIN

W 75-65

+2.5

DART

L 63-64

−23.5

BRWN

W 80-62

+1.5

YALE

L 54-60

−33.5

HARV

L 71-81

+15.5

over 14under 12avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Columbia has the better starters

Position by position: North Florida 0, Columbia 2, even 3

North FloridaBetterColumbia

G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38

Even

G M. Franklin9.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 48

G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3

COLUBig

G G. O'Keefe7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 45

G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29

Even

G H. Sanders4.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 38

G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21

Even

F M. Ritter6.9 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21

G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8

COLUBig

F C. Igoe8.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 72

North FloridaBetterColumbia

UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0

Even

COLU defense198th of 366 · -4.8

UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0

COLUBig

COLU offense163rd of 366 · -4.9

Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players

COLUBig

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 2 players

UNFSmall

Bench-1.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUNF betterCOLU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

North Florida

Guards

K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min

Forwards

A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew

Columbia

Guards

M. Franklin24 minG. O'Keefe21 minH. Sanders15 minJ. Cunningham4 minD. VesseyNewN. RomanelliNew

Forwards

M. Ritter25 minC. Igoe20 minD. Langford11 min · TRR. Nweke8 minL. Coleman4 minN. ClarksonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UNF77.1 #112

COLU74.9 #167

Points per possession

UNF1.06 #218

COLU1.10 #130

Pace (possessions)

UNF72.3 #31

COLU67.8 #237

Shooting

Effective FG%

UNF52.9 #106

COLU53.5 #83

3-point %

UNF35.0 #117

COLU35.9 #61

3-point attempt rate

UNF51.7 #7

COLU37.5 #221

Free throw rate

UNF28.8 #333

COLU28.6 #337

Possessions

Turnover rate

UNF17.8 #261

COLU19.3 #332

Offensive rebound rate

UNF25.2 #335

COLU36.0 #23

Assists per game

UNF13.4 #185

COLU15.0 #90

Defense

Points allowed

UNF89.6 #365

COLU73.5 #145

Points allowed per possession

UNF1.24 #364

COLU1.09 #188

Opponent effective FG%

UNF56.3 #349

COLU51.2 #168

Opponent 3-point %

UNF35.1 #253

COLU35.2 #258

Turnovers forced

UNF12.8 #360

COLU15.1 #282

Defensive rebound rate

UNF62.4 #361

COLU72.8 #42

Steals per game

UNF4.6 #352

COLU5.7 #270

Blocks per game

UNF1.4 #364

COLU3.0 #235

UNF		COLU
Scoring
77.1 #112	Points per game	74.9 #167
1.06 #218	Points per possession	1.10 #130
72.3 #31	Pace (possessions)	67.8 #237
Shooting
52.9 #106	Effective FG%	53.5 #83
35.0 #117	3-point %	35.9 #61
51.7 #7	3-point attempt rate	37.5 #221
28.8 #333	Free throw rate	28.6 #337
Possessions
17.8 #261	Turnover rate	19.3 #332
25.2 #335	Offensive rebound rate	36.0 #23
13.4 #185	Assists per game	15.0 #90
Defense
89.6 #365	Points allowed	73.5 #145
1.24 #364	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #188
56.3 #349	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #168
35.1 #253	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #258
12.8 #360	Turnovers forced	15.1 #282
62.4 #361	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #42
4.6 #352	Steals per game	5.7 #270
1.4 #364	Blocks per game	3.0 #235

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs West Georgia85–93
Lvs Jacksonville61–85
Wvs FGCU76–70
L@ Stetson71–76
Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.

Columbia

14-12 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Harvard71–81
Lvs Yale54–60
Wvs Brown80–62
Lvs Dartmouth63–64
W@ Princeton75–65

A week or more of rest.

North Florida Ospreys at Columbia Lions

What could decide it: COLU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Florida

Columbia

Columbia has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

North Florida

Columbia